Posts

Showing posts from March, 2021

Russell 2000 continues to feel the pressure

Image
Last Thursday's gain in the indices had established the groundwork for consolidations, with the Tech and Large Caps best positioned to gain.  The Russell 2000 may have already run into trouble with its consolidation as today's loss came off its 50-day MA on higher volume distribution. Technicals are mostly bearish, although On-Balance-Volume remains on a 'buy' trigger despite today's distribution.

Markets build a consolidation double bottom? Large Caps lead

Image
The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq are building sideways trading ranges with the potential for a double bottom using Thursday's low and the March swing low as the basis for the next phase of the rally. It's not a deep pattern, but given the rally which led into it, it's as much of a consolidation as once can expect to see.  In the case of the Nasdaq, Friday's gain wasn't enough to offset the MACD trigger 'sell' or the loss in relative performance to the Russell 2000 (although no 'sell' trigger).

Small Caps and Tech feel the pressure

Image
More damaging action in the indices today as sellers found little in the way of blockers to push both the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq lower. We haven't seen much from sellers since February, particularly in the Russell 2000.  The Russell 2000 didn't pause at its 50-day MA as it makes its way toward the spike low from early March.  Given the rate of decline I would expect this to surpass the low and start a longer move down towards its 200-day MA. Volume climbed to register as distribution. j Certainly, there are the makings of a trading range wit the 200 level looking nnlike the low end of the range   The Nasdaq was another hard hit index as it shapes a mini-"z" measured move lower.  This index has struggled since an attempted swing low in early March and now finds itself staring at a possible move to its 200-day MA. There were 'sell' triggers in the MACD and Stochastic, but relative performance against the Russell 2000 has been gaining sharply, so while this inde

Markets Diverge; Nasdaq Gains - Russell 2000 Loses.

Image
It was a bit of a mixed bag for markets as the S&P and Nasdaq gained, but the Russell 2000 lost ground. Gains in the Nasdaq didn't quite make it above its 50-day MA but it's poised to make a relative switch advantage over the Russell 2000.

Buyers look to halt losses across indices

Image
Friday was options expiration, which spiked volume, but it also saw higher prices for many of the indices.  The Russell 2000 was/is the lead index but it reversed its recent breakout to fall below support, but it did find support at its 20-day MA.  Technicals are a little mixed with a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and ADX, but bullish technicals intact for On-Balance-Volume and Stochastics. The index is still outperforming the S&P and Nasdaq.

Indices defend support

Image
Buyers stepped in at trendline support for the S&P and Russell 2000, and the 50-day MA for the Nasdaq.  All gains were on small volume, but enough to keep buyers interested. The Nasdaq opened at its 50-day MA, with an On-Balance-Volume 'buy' trigger to go with the earlier MACD 'buy'.  Only ADX left to turn bullish.

S&P follows Dow Industrials Higher

Image
The S&P was always going to take its lead from the Dow Industrials as it followed the latter index to new all-time highs.  The percentage gain wasn't significant, but it was probably enough to register it as a return above trendline resistance. As a point of note, the index is still in the 90% of historic overbought action relative to its 200-day MA. 

Dow Jones Industrials continue to charge

Image
The last couple of days have seen the Dow Industrials Average grab my interest as it continues to ascend beyond channel resistance to new all-time highs. Technicals are all net bullish with the index sharply outperforming the Nasdaq 100; only volume disappoints (a little).

Dow Jones Industrials Posts New Highs

Image
It may only have thirty stocks, but those thirty stocks are wasting no time posting new highs. It's working as a lead index at the moment, with the Russell 2000 not far behind. With these indices doing most of the leg work there is a good chance they will drag the S&P and Nasdaq along with them. The Dow Jones Industrial Index is pushing itself beyond its rising channel, although volume is drifting lower. Technicals are positive and relative performance has been moving sharply higher since mid-February.

Surprise buying?

Image
Yesterday's action was unusual in that the 'bullish' hammers from Friday gave way to selling, but today's action added another layer of surprise by reversing Monday's selling with a fresh round of buying. Taking a step back and removing this noise of the last couple of days and we markets continuing their run off their highs. We are seeing a drop in volume in recent days (in both buying and selling), suggesting we are reaching the end of this particular decline. We just need a few more days like today to firm this swing low up. The Nasdaq jumped nearly 3.5% as it makes its way back towards its 50-day MA. Technicals are net bearish and were little improved despite today's big price gain.

Indices find support on bullish 'hammers'

Image
Bulls made decent intraday recoveries to close near highs on Friday - registering bullish 'hammer' candlesticks across the indices. These will offer a good launch point for next week.   The Nasdaq closed on higher volume accumulation as it finished with a bullish hammer off the early January swing low. Technicals are all net bearish, making the likelihood for a move into Friday's spike low relatively high - although I would be look for a more bullish move on Monday.

Nasdaq losses accelerate

Image
The potential 'bear traps' quickly stalled and sellers again returned to the fore. Selling in the Nasdaq undercut the lows of the 'bear trap' with a finish on the low of the day.  There was also a 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume.  The wide intraday bar marks a change in the action since the beginning of this rally in November and today's volume marked a return to distribution,.

Bear traps for S&P and Nasdaq?

Image
We had a successful test of support for the Russell 2000 which delivered a low volume bounce with minimal improvement in supporting technicals.

Support break for Nasdaq and S&P

Image
Indices have gone from new high breakouts, to 20-day MA tests, to breaks of trendline support - weakening at each step along way. The Nasdaq finished Friday with a loss of the 50-day MA after trendline support gave way on Thursday.  Friday's volume was relatively light, but there was confirmed distribution on Thursday's selling.  Technicals have taken a marked step lower, especially the MACD - although On-Balance-Volume is hanging on to its 'buy' signal. Intermediate stochastics [39,1] just undercut its mid-line, although a rally tomorrow would be enough to see this as the start of support for a secular trend pullback (although such a pattern would take time). 

Archive

Show more