Showing posts from March, 2016

Relative Low Volume Profit Taking

It was no surprise to see profit takers sweep in and take money off the table. There was relative distribution in the S&P, although overall volume was well down on recent buying. Technicals for Large Caps remain net positive and relative performance has returned in Large Caps favour.

Gains For Tech, Indecision Elsewhere

Not a whole lot to say about today. Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 had the best of the action with further gains bringing these indices closer to their 200-day MAs, Gains and buying volume were modest, so there is little more to add other than today marked the fifth consecutive gain in a row for the Nasdaq.

Big Volume Accumulation

Options expiration played into Friday's volume, but it was a decent push by bulls for a rally which is in the latter stages of its run (at least on an intermediate time frame). The Dow had the best of the action as it cleared declining resistance defined by Winter 2015 highs. The next challenge for this index will be the all-time high. The index is also looking to build on the strong relative performance it's enjoying against Tech indices. Other technicals are all in the green.

Low Volume Gains

A brief update as work travel keeps me away from my blog. A strong finish to the end of week was tempered by the relatively light volume which came with the buying. The S&P knocked on the door of the 200-day MA on solid technical strength. It will be important for buyers to keep buying pressure on as they look to push beyond and challenge 2015 highs. The index is also challenging relative performance gains as the maturing rally looks to see profit takers rotate out of speculative Small Caps into 'safer' Large Caps.

Further Accumulation On Bullish Response to NFP

Bulls kept things ticking over after initial negative response to NFP reversed to rally with a strong finish to the week. The S&P registered an accumulation day as technicals returned net bullish.  The index is knocking on the door of resistance. A push above the 200-day MA is the only check item left which bears can cling on to as a shorting zone. Beyond that and 52-week highs are on the agenda.

Bulls Keep Gains Running

Bears were again unsuccessful in pushing an early advantage with bulls coming to feed late in the day. The gains were modest, but speculative Small Caps had the best of the action. The Semiconductor Index is up against its 200-day MA and finished with a neutral doji.  If there is an index ready to push lower it's this one.

Low Key Bullish Push

After yesterday's solid gain it would have been easy for bears to take back some of those gains.  Instead, bulls kept the pressure on with another day of gains.  The net return on the day was small, but it was significant.  With 50-day MAs breached for many indices, the 200-day MAs are next. It may be mean reversion, but what happens when indices get back to 200-day MAs will be interesting. The only negative on the sell off was the failure to register losses of 40% or more from 52-week highs; indices tagged the extreme lows from the 200-day MA, but fell well short of bear market lows. Only the Russell 2000 came close to doing so. The question is whether the 2016 sell off is just an extreme bullish correction, and not a clear out bear collapse. Current action suggests the former, which means the secular bull rally from 2009 lows is still in play - but we are likely nearer the end than the beginning - which isn't the best news if a bull.  However, if this proves too, new 52-wee

Large Caps and Tech Breakout

After two days of losses bulls were able to push a move higher in Tech and Large Cap indices. The breakout in the Nasdaq was a clear run past the 50-day MA.  Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, along with a relative performance gain (against the S&P). The S&P put some distance on its 50-day MA, but continued to lose relative ground against the Russell 2000. The Dow also added to its breakout. However, relative performance against Tech indices took a sharp dip lower. The Russell 2000 cleared the swing high, but finds itself up against declining resistance. However, it did finish with net bullish technicals. The Nasdaq 100 added over 3%, slicing through its 50-day MA and opening up for a challenge on its 200-day MA. Volatility also moved lower following two prior months of spike highs. Has this confirmed a swing low for 2016? Today was a substantive move in bulls favour. The question now is whether it can maintain the move. You've


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