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Showing posts from June, 2009

Stock Market Commentary: Tired Rally

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The early collapse in the market had worrying tones but there was no follow through even if volume registered as distribution. The Dow has the greatest interest simply because it's in a support battle at the 50-day and 200-day MAs. The other index to watch is the semiconductor index; the second indecisive doji after the 'shooting star' with the 20-day MA overhead is suggesting further gains are looking more and more unlikely. It's still holding the 50-day MA but I am liking a test of the 200-day MA before a run on June highs is attempted. In defense of the markets I thought it was going to be a whole lot worse. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Markent Sentiment: Bull Cross or Bull Trap?

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The recent rally has put a little bit of fire into breadth's belly. However, not all breadth indicators took the bait. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents is best placed with the bullish cross of the 5-day EMA as the Ultimate Oscillator worked a 'buy' signal from oversold conditions. Whether this evolves into a bull trap or a genuine 'buy' signal remains to be seen but it's a positive at least (and is still a good 5 points away from traditional bull market overbought levels). I was surprised not to see a stronger technical response for the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA. Given we are near the highs of June the indicator shows 30% fewer stocks trading above this key moving average than back at the start of May when it peaked. This is a bad omen and a potential low risk short using June highs as a stop. Buyer beware...(again) Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager...

Stock Market Commentary: Dow Pops Over 200-day MA

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Old news for every other index which are well over their respective 200-day MAs but the Dow managed to fight back to close over its. It's very close to a "Golden Cross" of its own. Other indices finished neutral with former support playing as resistance; the Russell 2000 been a prime example It's hard to read too much into typical summer trading. May/June lows are the best line in the sand if you are a bull. No confirmed reason to sell but hard to be a buyer. Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398 [1] Register at Zignals . [2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight) [3] Click on the YourCall Icon [4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month) [5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals [6] Send me your Zi...

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

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Will the markets break? Another week where early week weakness was reversed. What had the stockchart.com ers to say about it all? Anthony Caldaro of the Elliott Wave lives on has labelled a '1' / '2' of a new 5-wave down. '2' for the S&P is just over 930. It's an alternate count to his original ABC correction (which is still labelled) but it's worth keeping track of. Richard Lehman has gone with new short term upchannels - but sees the broader downtrend taking control over the next few days. 6/27 -- Laggards like financials (XLF) and China shares(FXI)have now finally broken into new upward blue mini channels, joining the others. The small caps have had the greater pop upward, but all the indexes are showing this pop to be narrow and somewhat steep, suggesting a brief life. I am still expecting that they will peak out with a few days at levels below the highs of June 11th, forming peaks that will determine the angle of the larger descending channe...

Weekly Market Commentary: Contrary To Action In the Indices, Breadth Weakened Further

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On a week-to-week basis there wasn't much going down for the indices. The Nasdaq was able to make a positive backtest of 1,759 support, finishing the week a couple points shy of its high. The Russell 2000 lost weekly support of 517 (just); although the doji may be seen as bullish it must be countered by the neutral long term and overbought short term momentum. The Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA for both the Nasdaq and S&P collapsed; fewer stocks holding the rally mean it won't last forever. Without broader participation the rally has the same chance of success as the 2006 divergence brought about in 2007. It should be added the technicals for the Percentage of S&P stocks above the 50-day MA switched negative to 'sell'. The longer divergences play between parent indices and supporting breadth the likelihood the next move down will be swift and hard. Based on some of my earlier analysis a big move down sounds too expected by the market - and therefore u...

Thank You TraderInterviews.com!

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My latest Scratchback purchase is from TraderInterviews.com . As part of the Scratchback purchase I allocate the $25 payment to a KIVA loan. Repayments from prior loans have also meant I have been able to make 10 new loans (including Tim's payment). This brings the total number of microloans to 117 . All of this was made possible by support from my former newsletter subscribers and Scratchback purchasees. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Decent Recovery

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A number of positives has given bulls something to play with. For the Nasdaq, on-balance-volume and the +DX/-DI managed bullish crosses as the index regained the 20-day MA. Volume also climbed in line with accumulation. The gains in the Dow were decent and were enough to push past the 50-day MA but not enough to break the 200-day MA. The Russell 2000 had the benefit of a declining 200-day MA and a recently Golden Crossed 50-day MA to bounce off. There was even a bull cross in the CCI to give bulls an additional 'buy' signal. The under pressure Semiconductor index also did enough to regain its 50-day MA with a CCI 'buy' signal of its own; better stuff from this key recovery sector. Today marked a key play for bulls. With key moving averages regained it's now up to bulls to push their advantage. Shorts will wait for momentum to tire before getting aggressive again which is unlikely until June highs are approached. Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize o...

Stock Market Commentary: Bulls Struggle

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Inevitable after a couple days of losses was the rally. However, after a positive start, bulls started to fade into the close. Monday's heavy losses capped any push above those day's highs. Volume was light but will it be enough to facilitate a second attempt at a rally tomorrow? The Dow was repelled at its 50-day MA. It was the same story for other indices. At least for the Small Caps both 50-day and 200-day MAs held. Buy expect tomorrow to see bears re-assert themselves. Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398 [1] Register at Zignals . [2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight) [3] Click on the YourCall Icon [4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month) [5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals [6] Send me your...

Bullish Gold - Bearish Dollar Index

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The past 18 months have seen building pressure on $1000 resistance in Gold with the dollar now struggling to regain anything like its early year momentum. The one glitch in the scenario was the break of rising support from November lows in Gold but this will probably amount to little more than a change in the rate of ascent. April lows of $869 should not be violated. The dollar index 'looks' to want to retest 71.32 which will have a knock on effect for commodity prices, likely taking oil past the $70-74 band of resistance with the potential to push it into the low $100s (although it will take more than a weakening dollar to get it there). Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398 [1] Register at Zignals . [2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight) [3] Click on the YourCall Icon [4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target pri...

Stock Market Commentary: Technicals Break

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Yesterday saw the indices lose support, today saw supporting technicals turn net red. The only indices to hang on were the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, each retaining their 50-day MAs to boot. But the Russell 2000 lost technical bullishness Along with the Dow But once again volume was light considering. Currently short term oversold so a couple of days of gains are likely on the cards. Enter to win the Trader's Business Plan prize of a free psych test and free access to the trading plan development program. Retail value $398 [1] Register at Zignals . [2] Go to Charts and select a stock (you will be prompted to download Microsoft Silverlight) [3] Click on the YourCall Icon [4] Enter a Call by giving a stop and target price; make sure the Time Period is set to Short (month) [5] Enter as many calls as you like up until the end of June; these can be long or short signals [6] Send me your Zignals Userid so I can track the calls made (declan-at-zignals.com) or post it in the comments secti...

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