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Showing posts from May, 2006

Trade Ideas: ARXT, BGO, BMR, CDI, EVF, SPSS, CNW, CACB

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Much better breadth in the market with today's 8 stocks covering a period of 3 minutes from the Trade Ideas scan. BGO and BMR were the only two stocks to appear twice during this period. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Trade Ideas: CHY, CNSL, RG, COMB, TRP, MYGN, MIG, BSY

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The fear in the Dow spilled over into the other indices, favoring a retest of last week's lows. The Trade Ideas scan was not short a few potential long side plays. Today's selection covered a period of 45 minutes, not bad considering the extent of the sell off. Most frequent on the list was RG which appeared 6 times, then MYGN and CNSL , each of which appeared twice . Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Fallondpicks.com: Weekend commentary

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Very little action into the long weekend. Tuesday will give a better idea as to how good this bounce really is. The Dow will carry the most interest technically as it closed right on 50-day MA resistance. Other indices, like the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 , suffered on tired trading, unable to push the days action much beyond opening gap prices but remain away from typical resistance levels. The S&P may have the most room to run upside given it had a decent Friday and remains some 12 points away from closest resistance at the 20-day MA. The Russell 2000 was caught between the tech averages and the large caps as it managed modest gains on the day. Secondary Tech Indicators [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] found some traction. The $NAA50 bottomed on Thursday while the $NASI and $BPCOMPQ attempted to put some measure of a bottom in place as both ticked up, although both remain some way from traditionally oversold levels. Volatility spent another day in pullback, but its prior gai

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : May 19th

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There were no Trade Ideas stock scan picks for the previous Friday which gave a handy advantage to the other systems given its solid performance to date. Jim Cramer was able to gain some face back with a solid +3.48% return on the week, a far cry from his most recent weekly performance sequence of -12.28% , -7.40% and -2.31% . His performance was the best of all the picks. Next up were my newsletter stocks, closing the week up +1.67% . This performance rises to +2.75% when my suggested stop prices are used. Market ETFs were able to reverse their prior six run of losses closing the week ip +1.02% . The best stock on the week was Jim Cramer's KRY . It closed the week up +12.69% . The worst stock was one of my newsletter Subscriber picks, CHRK . It finished the week down -8.10% . I have updated the sidebar weekly performance chart; note the strong performance of Trade Ideas Base Scan . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a fr

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : May 18th

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Thursday's week-on-week comparison was a mirror image in yesterday, except losses were relatively lighter. The Market ETF's after today's rally finished close to flat on the week ( -0.06% ). Next up was the Trade Ideas scan down -0.87% on the week, then my newsletter picks at -1.23% . Jim Cramer's picks has the worst performance, down -2.31% , but this is a considerable improvement over his previous losses for the week. Only five stocks were profitable; the best performance coming from the Trade Ideas pick, WEBX , up +2.07% . Worst performer goes to Jim Cramer's KOP . This stock finished the week down -14.14% . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or

Stocktickr: Interview

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I gave an interview for Stocktickr with Dave Mabe. You can catch it here . Stocktickr

Collective 2: CHRK out

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The entry candlestick was wider than I would have liked for an ideal risk:reward ratio and this was reflected in the eventual cash loss of -$1,040 ( -8.8% ) on a 2,000 share lot. Looks destined to test the 200-day MA at $4.40.

Trade Ideas: INVX

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On paper, Thursday's gains looked good - but there wasn't the heavy volume to mark it as a follow through day or a day of strong accumulation. Todays' gains will likely be pegged back as bears take another crack on the bulls, but yesterday's lows should be strong support. There was no shortage of stocks on my Trade Ideas scan. One of the most frequent into the last hour of trading was Innovex ( INVX ). Upside break of a declining channel as the stock held support of $4.65. A retest of this support level should manifest itself over the coming days with a confirmation "buy" trigger in the MACD trigger line. Although the point-n-figure chart shows no price pattern it does favor a price target of $11.50. Key resistance can be found at $13.00. Innovex, Inc. provides circuit interconnect solutions to original equipment manufacturers in the electronics industry worldwide. It offers circuit applications and services from initial design, development, and prototype to f

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : May 17th

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Another week and another set of losses. Market ETFs were the 'winner' on the week with a loss of 'only' -2.02% . The Trade Ideas scan closely followed the Market ETF's with a loss of -2.22% . The biggest loser on the week was Jim Cramer, his stocks closed down an average of -7.40% , not that my own picks were any better, down -5.24% . The Trade Ideas performance was interesting with 50% of the picks profitable; losses of -11.5% in each of SNTS and PLCE brought the overall average down, but considering none of Jim Cramer's 8 lightning round picks were profitable it was a quite impressive return for the Trade Ideas Base Scan . Disappointment in the performance of my own picks would have been slightly alleviated had my suggested stop prices been used; a loss of -5.24% would have turned into a loss of -4.31% instead. The strongest stock on the week was the Trade Ideas, CXW . It finished the week up +4.83% . Wednesday's results have really shaken the 1-week p

Trade Ideas: CDI

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The stronger close helped push a number of stocks to the forefront of the Trade Ideas scan. In the last 15 minutes of trading the following stocks cropped up in my Base Scan : GMST , CDI , PLFE , WDFC , BT , SYNT , RKT , KO , HRL , SMSI , SPSS , MAPS , PORK , CBM , GVHR , INDB , DEL , ADP , BUCY , TR and JH . One of the most frequent to appear during this period was CDI . The stock is still range bound inside a channel with larger resistance overhead at $30.86. A break of $29.25 should see a follow on move past $30.86. Stops can go on a loss of $28. Watch for a confirmation signal in the MACD trigger line. Long term resistance lurks at $35 with the point-n-figure chart holding to a $42 price target as part of a St. Patrick's Day Double Top Breakout. CDI Corp. provides engineering and information technology (IT) outsourcing solutions and professional services; staffing and permanent placement services; and franchise services in the United States and internationally. Its staffing se

Fallond vs Trade Ideas vs J. Cramer: May 16th

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No surprises to see the markets down for Tuesday's week-on-week comparison. Market ETFs took an average loss of -3.57% on the week, one of the largest losses for the market ETFs. After Jim Cramer's heavy losses for Monday there were no lightning round picks available for selection on Tuesday (a lucky escape!). My newsletter pick performance of -2.73% was saved by BKD which finished the week up +13.56% . But the star performer on the week was the Trade Ideas pick, LTXX , which finished up +20.31% (with a maximum gain of +37.69% ). Because of these gains the Trade Ideas scan was able to close the week up +0.55% . Biggest loser was my Subscriber pick, WIND . The stock closed the week down -13.82% . However, if my suggested stop price was used the loss for WIND would have been reduced to a more manageable -4.24% . Similarly, using stop losses for ACN and APCC would have reduced their losses to -1.64% and -1.84% respectively. This would have improved my newsletter returns

Collective 2: PPDI out

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A victim of fate? It remains to be seen if this stop trigger was inevitable, or something which we will rue later on? Both Yahoo! and Stockcharts.com shows the lows of the day at $34.50, but intraday trading shows a low of the day at $35.88???. Its water under the bridge as the trade triggered the stop of $35.09 for a -$378 loss on a 300 share lot. Two trades remain, but I am in fishing mode for more.

Trade Ideas: GIS

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Bulls can't seem to catch a break, but there is strength to be found in this market. First it was Campbell soup, now its General Mills ( GIS ). Nice break of near term resistance to set up a challenge of $50.92 resistance. This follows an earlier MACD trigger 'buy'. Its 2.7% yield is not to be sneezed at either. General Mills, Inc. produces packaged consumer foods in the United State and internationally. It offers ready-to-eat cereals; dry packaged dinner mixes, Mexican foods and dinner kits, soups and ingredients, canned and frozen vegetables, meal starters, and refrigerated barbeque products; dry packaged specialty potatoes, instant mashed potatoes, salad, and salad topping; and shelf-stable microwave meals and packaged meals. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Trade Ideas vs Fallond vs Jim Cramer. May 15th

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Not surprisngly, it was down week all round for the various stock picks. Unfortunately, the biggest loss ever in the 33 week-on-week comparisons went to Jim Cramer ; his -12.28% loss killed what had been a reasonably strong performance of late for Jimbo. Is this the curse of the Guru? There are four more days to find out. Although no stock pick set were profitable, stocks drawn from the Trade Ideas scan only finished the week down -0.38% , closing well above the market ETF loss of -2.24% and my newsletter picks of -3.30% . Only two stocks were profitable on the week, both of which were drawn from my Trade Ideas scan; LTD and IT . The average performance can be found in the chart in the right-hand-margin, but I have listed the average return and standard error for each of the performance parameters below: Fallond Stock Newsletter : Average weekly return: 0.23%. Standard error: 0.66% Trade Ideas Scan : Average weekly return: 0.75% . Standard error: 0.40% Jim Cramer : Average weekl

KIVA: Loan no. 5

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KIVA If you would like to sponsor an individual, sign up for one-year membership to my newsletter and $25 will be given to the KIVA program.

Trade Ideas: KVHI

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Another volatile day for the markets as indices struggled to gain a foothold from their freefall. The SOX took the brunt of the selling, but each day of downside brings the markets closer to a more compelling bottom. June should see a summer bottom in place - good enough for a 3-4 month rally. The next rally will entertain talk of a return to the secular bearish decline (lower highs), a double top (equal, to new 52-week highs), or business "as usual" (a chugging rally). But buying opportunities for the nimble should present themselves very soon. Until then use now as a time to look for pockets of strength, build a watch list of stocks (it will be short!) and see how they ride out the next few days. Stocks which sit 1-2% from major support are probably worth a long-side pop while allowing for minimal risk on capital. I have implemented such a strategy in my Collective 2 portfolio with three long-side positions entered last week. I will be looking to add more over time. One s

Fallondpicks.com: Weekend commentary

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Tech averages were the key winners from Friday's buying. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 closed on bullish piercing patterns helped by sizable gains in the semiconductor index. The latter index was able to retrace the last three days of losses, although a retest of 474 looks favored before further gains can develop, Overhead resistance at the 200-day MA will likely fuel supply selling on Monday in this index. Volatility had a very strong week and the lackluster action in the 14-22 range from late 2004 looks set to end. An increase in volatility is typically associated with fear (selling), but buying opportunities will present themselves even if this price retreat develops into a more formal downtrend. Large caps [ Dow / S&P ] were a mixed bag; the Dow churned on heavy volume, but the S&P was able to close with a positive test of the 200-day MA. The Dow darling of CNBC looks to have lost much of its gloss as buyers failed to bid up this index in line with the tech averag

Trade Ideas: FEIC, YUM, PRVT, NTY, PCAR, BCO, CWTR, CMI

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Friday's selection covered 1 hour and 35 minutes of the Trade Ideas scan. Heavy volume gains from Friday didn't really spill over to the Trade Ideas selection, which brings into question the strength of Friday's buying. The two most frequent stocks on the list were BCO and PCAR at 5 a piece. BCO looks best positioned to gain with its gentle pullback to the 20-day MA, stop can go on a loss of Thursday's lows. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Collective 2: IT out

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Still fishing for a bottom using tight stops on oversold stocks. Gartner Inc, ( IT ), announced the price for its secondary offering at $14.75 . This news, unfortunately, reversed the gains from yesterday and pushed prices below support of the gap (where my raised stop was). The play closed for a small loss of -$195 on a 750 share lot ( -1.8% ). I have replaced this stock in the portfolio with another. My one other position is up +$1,179 since its addition on May 17th.

Value plays: CDE and HL

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Two gold mining stocks which have suffered a swathe of selling, but are now trading around what should be decent support (200-day MA) on oversold stochastics. Gold bugs will be looking to add in the face of the final upleg for Gold (still to come I think). Value Gold

Trade Ideas: MRK, PPDI, MRK, LAMR, BUD, BBBB, WEBX, FSH

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Although markets lost even more ground, there was actually greater strength to be found in stocks (as per my Trade Ideas scan). The following selection of stocks covered 2 hours of the software. The most frequent stock to appear on the list was FSH ( 10 ), then came WEBX ( 4 ) and LAMR ( 4 ). The best buying opportunities on a risk:reward basis look to be PPDI and LAMR . PPDI : Run a stop on a loss of $35.16 and look for a move to $41 . LAMR pulled back to trendline support (and the 20-day MA). Stops on a loss of $55.85 for a price target of $75 . Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Spotting a bottom

The relentless selling continues. The good news is markets are close to a decent intermediate term bottom. The easiest way to spot this is to look at the performance of the following indicators: NASDAQ Bullish percents ( $BPCOMPQ ), NASDAQ Summation Index ( $NASI ) and NASDAQ stocks over the 50-day MA ( $NAA50 ). These indicators are excellent measures in isolating bottoms in the NASDAQ (and for the market as a whole). They tend to lag a little in tops; these indicators peaked at the start of February (2006) which was an ideal sell for the NASDAQ , NASDAQ 100 and SOX , but was too early for the Dow , S&P and Russell 2000 which peaked last week. The table below provides the performance of my newsletter picks in the months after a bottom occurred in these indicators. The stocks are drawn from my "Breakout" and "Subscriber [$]" lists. The " % Win " represents the proportion of stocks for that month which closed profitable. The " % gain/trade &qu

Collective 2: ACN and COST

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Two early attempts to fish for a bottom were stopped out. Both closed for small losses leaving two candidates still "in the money". The first stop out, COST , never got the kick I was looking for off the 50-day MA. It tested $53 support today; another potential buying area - but there was no real signs of strong demand here either. The 200 share lot closed for a -$346 loss ( -3.1% ). The second knock out was ACN . This stock crashed through its 200-day MA (one of the reasons for the entry), closing below support. The 300 share lot closed for a -$141 loss ( -1.6% ).

Trade Ideas: YUM, SNTS, CXW, FSH, PLCE, BUD. KO, KFT

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If Tuesday was bad, Wednesday was worse. The following eight stocks covered the best part of the day . It will be interesting to see how these perform next week. Top of the frequency list was FSH at 9 , then CXW at 8 , BUD at 6 and YUM at 5 . Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Collective 2: SPECIAL OFFER $19.95 a month

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As I have had a clear out in the portfolio I am offering membership at a special discounted rate of $19.95 for this month only . Subscribers are billed in profitable months only . Click here to sign up. Please note, this is not a subscription to my newsletter but to my trading portfolio (a newsletter subscription can be made by purchasing a subscription period in the right-hand margin).

Trade Ideas: CHINA, LH, LTXX, NCC, KFT, PFGC, CNA, GFIG

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The market took an extra day breather which left only a handful of stocks on the Trade Ideas scan. The 8 stocks for Wednesday covered a 53 minute time period of the scan; the most frequent was KFT which featured 7 times, PFGC and NCC were next up on 4 times and CNA at 3 times. Unfortuntately, GFIG was a thorn in my side given it stopped out yesterday from a newsletter play, only to push up 6% today. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Trade Ideas: COF, MI, LTD, COST, SNA, JCOM, WEC, IT

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Although buyers were late to the bar there was no shortage of stocks from the scan to review. Monday's picks covered a span of 10 minutes. The most frequent stocks on the scan were COF and LTD which appeared three times. MI was next up having featured twice. With tech averages at the 200-day MA and markets at short term oversold levels now is a good time to take advantage of this situation. I have added two of the following stocks to my Collective2 portfolio. Click here to subscribe to my portfolio and find out what stocks these are. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Collective2: SMG out

The last of my portfolio stocks was stopped out today. SMG cut below support and registered a small loss of -$284 on a 200 share lot. This was the last of a series of picks: JOF , MANT , TRX and SSD , bought around April 13th on the premise of a bounce (market indices were trading at support at this time). The net return for these five plays was +3.00% ($47,504 outlay returned $1,216). The modest return was at least better than the S&P return for this period of +0.4% . Collective2 portfolio: Click on performance chart below to see trades:

Fallondpicks.com: Weekend commentary

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With the 200-day MA fast approaching for the NASDAQ one can expect the bulls to make more of a stand than they did at the end of last week. The NASDAQ 100 was less fortunate as it cut below its 200-day MA and support of the former head-and-shoulder reversal pattern. But even this index is due some relief as slow stochastics entered oversold territory (just as they did in the NASDAQ ). The semiconductor index was able to stall right on the 200-day MA and buyers may look to take advantage of this support level on Monday. Where the pain was most felt was in the secondary tech indices [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ]. All three indicators lost key support, but at least the $NAA50 at 977 is closer to an intermediate term buy zone (650 and below) than its prior overbought 1650 in February. The $NASI at -54.99 and the $BPCOMPQ at 55.60 have room to run to oversold levels in the -950s and 30s respectively. The biggest hit was taken in the small caps [ Russell 2000 ] as sellers failed to

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : May 5th

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The selling which swept through Thursday and Friday took large chunks out of the modest gains stocks had built up earlier in the week. The stock picks of Jim Cramer weathered the storm best and were able to finish in the green ( +2.45% ). My newsletter picks struggled, closing the week down -5.55% . Performance of my newsletter stocks improved (slightly) to -3.66% when my suggested stop price was used. The Trade Ideas picks ended the week down -1.96% but were able to outperform the market ETFs ( -2.52% ). Jim Cramer had two strong performers in GM ( +14.73% ) and ZOLT ( +21.23% ) which were able to compensate for his weakest pick, ZL ( -11.35% ). Unfortunately, my newsletter pick, DXCM , was the biggest loser on the week; the stock shed -14.86% . Jim Cramer absolute week-on-week performance of 23% ranks alongside that of the market ETF's 25% . But the real gain was in his average weekly returns per trade ; closing up +0.72% and comparable to the Trade Ideas scan picks which

Collective 2: RCNI out

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Loss of rising support trendline from February. The selling was not excessive relative to the rest of the market, but it was enough to hit the stop price. The 500 share lot closed for a +$470 profit. Only one position remains in the portfolio and it is currently down -$112 . I am looking for a couple of short term bounce candidates to take advantage of oversold conditions, but intend to keep the bulk of the money in cash until market conditions dictate a higher exposure. To subscribe to this system and get my next buy candidates sent to your email address, click on performance chart below:

Fallondpicks.com: How stocks suffer

After a number of quiet weeks for exiting positions it turned into a whirlwind of stop hits for my newsletter picks; 17 stocks were stopped out on today's action leaving some 148 stocks still in play. Going back over the last year it appears trouble travels in groups. High numbers of stop hits occurred on April 29th ( 17 - but this included stocks from a period of a few days), March 8th ( 9 ), March 7th ( 13 ), October 13th ( 15 ), October 12th ( 16 ), October 6th ( 19 ), October 5th ( 11 ), September 22nd ( 8 ), September 21st ( 8 ), September 15th ( 11 ), August 5th ( 9 ), August 4th ( 8 ) and May 1st ( 10 ). A large proportion of the stop hits from September through to October were from short-side positions, but the important thing to note was the length of time stocks suffered - it wasn't just a couple of days and the closets were cleaned, but overall it was a couple of months before the cupboards were bare. Thursday's action may be a bad omen for the future if thi

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : May 4th

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Given the selling it was not surprising to see all four systems down on the week. My newsletter picks won today's comparison by default as the 6 picks lost an average of -0.28% . The worst performing system was my Trade Ideas scan, it closed the week with an average loss per trade of -2.73% . Although the DIA took a beating, it was the only ETF to register a gain on the week as it closed up +0.92% , to prop the average loss per trade of the ETFs to just -0.36% . It was a fight for the worst performing stock and MTSN , PWAV and TEVA all registered losses greater than 10%, but Jim Cramer's TEVA was the eventual 'winner' as it closed the week down -13.43% . Luckily for Jim, the best performing stock was also his; BBI closed the week up an impressive +11.43% . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or ann

Trade Ideas: CNSL

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No surprise to see a thin list of stocks featured for my Trade Ideas scan. Below is a table representing the stocks (and frequency) covering the last hour of trading. CNSL was the clear favorite, the question will now is can it buck the market disaster zone? Consolidated Communications Holdings, Inc., through its wholly owned subsidiaries, provides communications services to residential and business customers in Illinois and Texas. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Collective2: TSM and JOF out

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The rug got pulled from the bulls and the market tumbles in freefall. Nothing escaped the firestorm. It forced two of my remaining four stocks out and will likely hit one more very soon. The two casualties were: [1] TSM : After what looked to be a good break of $11 resistance the stock upped sticks and reversed with its fourth day of selling. The 1000 share lot closed out breakeven for a +$10 gain. [2] JOF : This play closed out yesterday afternoon and just as well it did. The fight for $16 support will be interesting, but my 500 share lot closed for a small $455 profit with no further damage done. The story so far; system is ranked 8th on Collective2's "Long-Term " list.

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