Showing posts from April, 2016

Losses All Round

There was no escape for indices as sellers achieved the sweep across markets. The Semiconductor Index suffered a big reversal, but not enough to break the horizontal congestion in play since the end of March. And only clawed back some of the relative out-performance against indices such as the Nasdaq 100.

Indices Diverge

Apple's disappointment may have previously caused more of a reaction in the broader market, but today's response - outside of Tech - was muted. However, there was a divergence between Tech, and Large and Small Cap indices. The S&P registered a small gain as 2,075 support held for a third day. Action has been very tight, but attempts on breaking 2,075 have been rebuffed, suggesting bulls are more likely to succeed in challenging and breaking all-time highs.

Small Caps Recover

The Russell 2000 had the best of the action with a reversal on yesterday's losses. This is a strong vote of confidence for bulls, although channel resistance hasn't yet been breached. Rate-of-Change also remains on the bearish side of the fence.

Late Buying Helps Large Caps. Small Caps Vulnerable

No great damage done today, but a little disappointing not to see Small Caps benefit from the late buying enjoyed by Large Cap indices. What is happening though is a gradual flattening in the technical picture, making it harder for traders to look to technical parameters for guidance. The S&P finished near the day's high, although slightly down on yesterday's close.  Relative performance continues to lag Small Caps despite the better performance today.

Small Cap Gains But Tech Distribution

Small Caps were the chief winner on Friday with a near 1% gain. Such action will have pressured Shorts who may have jumped on Thursday's selling from channel resistance. Rate-of-Change is still holding to the bearish side of the market, although other technicals are bullish; relative performance in particular.

Disappointing Earnings Hurt Late

Microsoft and Google are doing their bit to kill the momentum of this respectable rally. While the short term picture gives bears an angle to work with it's going to take more to suggest this rally is done. The S&P had experienced profit taking with higher volume distribution on a bearish evening star. Technicals haven't turned yet, so it's a pure price reversal at the moment, and it's early days.

Flat Day

Semiconductors were able to make back some of yesterday's heavy losses, but other indices were little changed. Semiconductors have clawed back nearly 1% and are working off a potential support level of 660. There is a break of rising support in the CCI, which along with continued losses in relative strength, suggests bulls are not out of the woods yet.

Semiconductors Take Hit as Large Caps Rally

A Tale of Two Cities as Large Caps keep bullish momentum running with higher volume accumulation, while Techs - influenced by Semiconductors - edge lower. The S&P maintained bullish technicals as it added a few points to yesterday's gain. A push to challenge 2,140 looks well on the cards.

Bulls Advance

Two days of indecision has given way to another day of gains for bulls. Volume was lighter, but there was an important technical gain with reversals of MACD 'sell' triggers. The S&P is on its way to challenge 2,125 with the rally re-established.

Friday'a Flat Finish

The last two days of last week saw little change in markets. Volume was light, in line with quiet action. Next week will be an opportunity for follow through on the gains made during the first half of the week and see some pressure on all-time highs. The S&P is close to a MACD trigger 'buy' which will bring technicals back to net bullish. The next higher close may be enough to for the MACD to switch bullish

Solid Follow Through By Bulls

A good response from bulls with higher volume accumulation marking action of buyers and not just short covering. Gains in the S&P were paired with further losses in relative performance (against the Russell 2000). However, other technicals are improving and the only other 'sell' trigger in the MACD could turn into a strong 'buy' by the end of this week.

Bulls Turn Up On Day 3

Bulls were a little late to the party, but today's action was positive and brought markets away from the brink. The S&P worked off the 20-day MA in a near 1% gain on higher volume accumulation.  It still has room to run before it challenges 2,075 and the bull trap, plus it will need to reverse the MACD trigger 'sell' in the process, but today's action has rreduced the risk of a panic sell off.

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Sellers Keep Pressure On

A second day where bulls were unable to hold early gains and markets closed at lows. Following from Friday's action it was disappointing to see bulls failing to build on the two steps forward, one step back nature of this rally. The S&P closed with an inverse 'hammer' on confirmed distribution. The MACD continued to expand on its weakness with On-Balance-Volume close to triggering a 'sell' trigger of its own.  The 'bull trap' hasn't yet confirmed, but tomorrow could be the day we see this happen.

Friday Fails To Recover Thursday's Losses

Friday's end-of-week action didn't generate a big splash, but it did give an inkling as to what might happen for the coming week when the sequence of loss, gain, loss was met with a failure of markets to hold on to Friday's strong open. The S&P maintains the 'bull trap' with Friday's low volume amplifying the weakness of Friday. Other technicals are holding on, but for how long.

Sellers Engage Tug Of War

Yesterday belonged to bulls, today was a day for bears. Thursday's action returned prices to yesterday's lows but not enough to break the trend off February's swing low. A swing low of substance should be in the works soon - the question is whether today is the start of it. The S&P finished with a 'bull trap', expanding on the earlier MACD trigger 'sell'. Other technicals remain positive and relative performance is swinging back in favour of the S&P.

Bulls Buy The Dip

Over the past couple of weeks the rate of buying has slowed. This slowing has become more pronounced as indices pushed into November/December consolidations, but today was a concerted effort to reverse this. The chief disappointment was the lighter volume which accompanied today's buying for certain indices. The S&P still shows a relative underperformance against Small Caps despite the gain. And there is a MACD 'sell' trigger to contend with. However, it has managed to regain the resistance breakout. A push above 2,075 continues the rally.

Win Some, Lose A Little

Bulls continue to enjoy the benefit of greater gains paired with smaller losses. Today was no exception. The S&P holds to last week's breakout with buying volume registering as accumulation as losses are returned on lighter volume. There is an upcoming 'sell' trigger in the MACD to watch and relative performance has moved away from Large Caps to Small Caps - which is better news for bulls in the long term.


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