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Showing posts from March, 2018

Bulls Try To Stabilize Market

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Tuesday's sell-off did much to rattle the confidence of bulls; Thursday's attempt to bid markets back to Tuesday's highs lacked confidence as demonstrated by the relative gain and the lighter volume. Friday is an opportunity to give markets a little boost heading into the Easter weekend.  Futures suggest a positive open so it will be a question as to whether markets can build on it. The S&P is still shaping a 'bear flag' on the bounce off the 200-day MA. While technicals are net bearish they are not oversold.

Tech Indices Finally Succumb to Large Cap Selling

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The Media blamed Facebook for today's woes but really the damage was done in January when Large Cap indices sold off and today was the turn of profit takers to take a shot at those high flying Tech Indices. Markets still are a long way from the oversold conditions of February 2016, November 2011 and October 2008; tracked in the tables at the end of this post. I'll let you know when you get there and you can back up the truck for those long-term investment opportunities when it happens. However, my #sectorbreadth analysis is showing near-term buying opportunities. Of the indices, yesterday's little rally looks to have caught out some over-eager buyers, some of whom may have bailed already. For the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 there was a big hit with a wipeout of yesterday's gains but volume didn't rank as distribution despite the extent of losses. Technicals, did however, turn net bearish.

Can 200-day MAs Save Large Caps?

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Thursday and Friday left no doubt as to which side had control of the market. Rallies are now likely to be sold into given the distance from highs. At this stage, the tone for November's mid-terms has likely been set with January highs unlikely to be tested prior to the elections. However, it's not all bad news for longs. The S&P finished right on its 200-day MA. The likelihood is there will be some follow through lower but if buyers can bid this back up to the close of business (creating a doji or 'bullish hammer') then there is a good chance for a swing low. The best example is the S&P.

Stall in Decline

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The good news for bulls was the lack of follow through on the selling. An argument could be made for bullish harami doji in some key indices with stops on a loss of yesterday's lows.

Bears Take Control

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More decisive action from bears today as markets lose support.  The S&P undercut the rising trendline and 20-day plus 50-day MAs in a move which looks like it could develop into a test of the February spike low and the 200-day MA again; support at 2,695 is looking critical here. Aggressive traders could look to buy at these levels but confidence in this holding would not be high.

Expiration Spikes Volume but Markets Flat

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There wasn't much to be said about the gains or losses from Friday but volume spiked which disguised the intention of either bulls or bears. Friday's flat action probably best suits bulls as it marks a stall in selling losses. The S&P is resting on rising support with just On-Balance-Volume on a 'sell' trigger.

Selling Extends For A Third Day

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Indices extended loses for a third day but didn't change the picture from yesterday.  The S&P is still sitting on a support level of the former channel as On-Balance-Volume extended on yesterday's 'sell' trigger.

Nasdaq Threatening 'Bull Trap'

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A second day of selling brought the indices back towards support. The index looking most vulnerable with the potential to 'bull trap' is the Nasdaq. I'm not sure enough damage has been done to confirm this but another day's selling would probably be enough.

Dow Struggles Continue as Tech Breakouts Hold

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There wasn't a whole lot going on today which was different to Friday. Breakouts in the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and Semiconductor Index remain in effect while the Dow Jones Industrial average took an early hit in profit taking but on lighter volume. Relative performance remains particularly ugly.

Breakouts for Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100

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Leading indices again continued in their leadership roles; the Russell 2000 managed a new swing high with breakouts for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 after Semiconductors closed at new all-time highs. The Russell 2000 cleared 1,564 with relative ease with upticks in lead technicals - only relative performance suffered a small loss. Friday's 1.6% gain now opens up for a challenge on all-time highs of 1,615. Even if markets were to sell off it would take a few days to reverse the bullishness generated by the rally from the 'tweezer' bottom.

Russell 2000 Passes Last Swing High as Semiconductors Breakout

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The Russell 2000 may not be the index pushing all-time highs but the last four days have seen steady gains for the index - enough to generate a new relative performance advantage against strong performing Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Leadership from Small Caps is critical for building long-term rallies and this is a good start and an excellent confirmation of the `tweezer`bottom.

Markets Continue To Map Swing Lows

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A solid day for indices as markets continued the good work from Friday. Even the Dow Jones was able to firm up a potential 'bullish morning star' sequence.  There is still work to do but this looks better for bulls with anyone considering a short trade lacking a natural point of attack (yet).

Swing Low in Russell 2000?

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It was a strong finish for markets as they clawed back some of the early week losses. Some indices do look better than others and could offer bulls the opportunity they need into next week. Best of these could be the Russell 2000. The index left a picture perfect 'tweezer bottom' which has the potential to morph into a swing low.  If true then the index should push beyond 1,564 with little difficulty before challenging 1,615; risk is measured against a loss of 1,495.

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