Posts

Showing posts from February, 2016

Sellers Deliver Second Day Of Losses

Image
A little more damaging than Friday in that early gains couldn't stick in what would have been a respectable rebuttal of those losses. The Semiconductors managed a perfect tag of resistance before it headed south.  Shorts will have had the best of the opportunities today, although technicals are still net bullish.

Solid Gains - Small Loss

Image
The run of gain some, give back a little continued Friday with small losses after a solid Thursday. The S&P remained above its 50-day MA as relative performance shifted towards Small Caps, and Rate of Change moved sharply lower. Volume rose to register a distribution day.  Bulls will be looking to the 1,891 spike low to hold as a swing low; if not, then 1,810 is back in play.

Bulls Continue To Press

Image
Another good day for buyers as yesterday's recovery saw some solid follow through, with short covering likely part of the mix.  Volume climbed to register an accumulation day as the key 50-day MA was challenged for some indices. The S&P was one such index to close above its 50-day MA. In doing so it edged above 1,950. Supply is unlikely to be an issue until it gets too 2,000.

Bulls Pull It Together

Image
It was set up for bears with an easy gap down off the open, but buyers were able to put their foot down and drive a higher close. The next result was a mix of bullish piercing patterns and hammers. Up next will be getting past 50-day Moving Averages. The S&P finished with a bullish hammer which leaves it knocking on the door of 1,950 again.  Better still, the Rate of Change returned above zero with a new swing high, potentially ending the bear phase of the market. The 50-day MA is the next challenge, but there may be grounds for a push back to the 200-day MA.

Yesterday's Gains Rebuffed

Image
The hard work of yesterday was undone by today's selling. Volume was relatively contained, with profit taking and some eager shorts looking to take advantage of the resistance test. Existing holders have little to fear from today, and wannabe buyers will see this as the start of a buying pullback. The only index to keep an eye on is the Dow. Today's selling reversed the breakout and generated a 'bull trap', but this could also be viewed as a support test.

Dow Breakout - Double Bottom In Place?

Image
The Dow is the first of lead indices to confirm a 'Double Bottom' with a neckline break of 16,500. The index tagged the 20-day MA in the process. Bears will need a 'bull trap' to regain control, but they will find it much harder to sustain a move below 16,500 which will now be viewed as an accumulation zone. The 50-day MA will be tomorrow's challenge, but momentum is on its side.  The question is whether other indices can follow suit?

Second Consolidation Day

Image
A solid Friday kept indices at the business end of last week's gains.  Tech indices had the best of it, closing with small gains.  This was enough to return a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume.

Stall in Advance, but Bulls can be Happy

Image
It was inevitable, given the action over 2016, that bears were going to make an reappearance. Today's selling fell in line with near term profit taking with volume down on recent buying. The Nasdaq 100 experienced the worst of the selling, but buyers will be looking at a move down to 4,000 to buy value. More higher volume accumulation days would help build confidence. The Russell 2000 has done well to rebuff the heavier selling which has marked this index over the last part of 2015. Action over the last couple of weeks has the look of a 'bear trap', and today's narrow action should be favourable for bulls. If there is a push into the 'bear trap' it will be important for buyers to accelerate by creating a spike low. The S&P is sitting just below 1,940 and is on the verge of confirming a double bottom. The 50-day MA is fast approaching from above in a convergence with 1,940. A break of this combined resistance zone would firm up an intermediate ter

Day 3 of Gains

Image
A third solid day of bullish action has built up the potential for market double bottoms.  Selling from here will be treated as a pullback rather than a drop into the abyss. For the S&P, volume picked up to register as accumulation. A test of 1,940 will be interesting - watch for this tomorrow. On-Balance-Volume is close to a 'buy' trigger, to support the earlier signal in the MACD. The Nasdaq broke resistance of the declining channel. A push to the 50-day MA at 4,722 is the next target.  The push below 4,350 left a 'bear trap', so any weakness will want to hold on to former resistance, turned support at 4,350. On-Balance-Volume marks the breakout with a 'buy' trigger. The Russell 2000 was not the same high flyer as Large Caps, which was a little disappointing, but the index was able to push itself back inside the prior consolidation. The Dow might be the index to confirm a double bottom. It closed today right on the neckline. Watch for

Second Day of Gains

Image
Finally, some good news for my Kinder Morgan shares, although it's unlikely I'll see this back to my cost basis until 2017. As for the indices, it was a solid day, even if volume was a little light. The Nasdaq looks ready to break from its channel. Today registered as an accumulation day with a fresh MACD trigger 'buy'. There may be room for a rally back to the 50-day and/or 200-day MA (or 4,900).  Beyond that and things may get more difficult.

Nasdaq Breadth Reaches 2011 Oversold Levels

Image
Tech and Large Cap indices sit on the border between a bear market or a steep correction.  While Small Caps have fallen into bear market territory, there is still a chance for other indices to come in from the precipice.  The most bullish of these markers is Nasdaq Breadth metrics.  Nasdaq Bullish Percents and Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 200-day MA have dropped to levels last seen during 2011 lows.

Further Losses But No Breakaway

Image
The Asian session had set up for big losses, but markets were able to defend against such losses even if finishing with a lower close. The S&P tagged the January low, but it's hard to see it holding out if there's another challenge on 1,810. The Nasdaq was able to register a higher close (although below the prior day's close). It probably did enough to negate what is normally a bearish black candlestick, but bulls won't have any confidence until the bearish channel is broken. The Russell 2000 was the index feeling the most heat. The gap down didn't manage to do more than leave a small bullish hammer. The MACD trigger 'sell' expanded, and new lows keep pricing action on the side of bears. As the relative market leader, what goes here goes for other indices. Tomorrow is a chance for bulls to buy a change in fortune.  After five consecutive days of losses it's time for bulls to apply the squeeze. You've now read my opinion, next r

Bears Win Day - Just...

Image
There wasn't a whole lot of change by the close of business, but intraday strength was clawed back in worrisome fashion. The end result was to leave spike highs in markets. The S&P finished with a MACD 'sell' trigger, but on lower volume. The 'sell' trigger was below the bullish zero line, which makes it a strong signal.

Honors Even

Image
The gap down had set up for a big bearish move lower, but the collapse never appeared. Instead, lows held as support. On the flip side, an attempt at a rally couldn't get off the ground, but markets were able to do enough to register a close above the open. The S&P closed with a spinning top below support. Watch for a strong 'sell' signal in the MACD as other technicals remain bearish.  The only positive is the strong relative performance against the Russell 2000.

Sellers Start Day, Buyers Finish It

Image
Tech averages had the weakest start, Powerful gap downs had set things off, but buyers were able to make a comeback into the close. However, morning gaps remain. Volume climbed to register as distribution, which for the Nasdaq was the second day of distribution in a row. The Nasdaq 100 is on the fiftth day of selling in a row. The August swing low wasn't fully tested. Bulls will be looking for a bullish 'morning star' where today's candlestick 'hammer' is followed by an opening gap, then a rally for the rest of the day. Should this emerge, then a move to test 4,300 is next. If there is a weak open, then any chance for a bullish 'hammer' based on today's action is significantly weakened. Losses in the S&P, while comparable to the Tech indices, didn't see a loss of January's lows.  Today's spike low did fall inside the range of January's spike low. This will offer grounds for a positive response tomorrow; today's lows

Bears Break Deadlock

Image
A quick post before the Superbowl begins. Friday's action was very disappointing if you were in the bullish camp; poor jobs data contributing to the malaise. However, investors can view this as another buying opportunity, with the Nasdaq clocking the 10% percentile of historic weak prices dating back to 1971, and the Russell 2000 making fast work of a push back to 958. Again, it's not about investing everything at once, but perhaps using the coming year(?) to build long term positions. I would be happier to see a 40-60% trim from highs - keep an eye on my bottom watch table, but this is the kind of action which helps reset the bulls count. The S&P registered a clear break of rising trend. Volume was lighter, so it wasn't necessarily a panic sell. And while it could be viewed as a breakown, the glass half full crew would see this as a drop back into the prior consolidation. The disappointing aspect is that the previous Friday's buying failed to follow through highe

Pause in Action

Image
Small Gains as indecision held sway. The S&P finished inside the range of last Friday's breakout and held rising support, but the index did the minimum to pacify bulls.

Afternoon Recovery Creates New Spike Lows

Image
Better stuff from bulls as early selling quickly gave way to fresh buying. Best of the action belonged to the Russell 2000 with a bullish cross in the relative performance with the Nasdaq and its 20-day MA. The Russell 2000 is also clinging to a support level and maintaining the 'Bear Trap'.

Bears Test Buyers Resolve

Image
Last Friday saw a big swing in bulls favor as shorts were forced into covering and value players stepped in to buy the positive reaction to the swing low. Shorts look to have made a tentative return of the market as value buyers failed to follow through on Friday's action.  Volume climbed to register as distribution, but it was well down on Friday's accumulation.

Early Selling Rebuffed

Image
Healthy Action in today's markets as early selling was outdone by afternoon buying. The respectable close will help build confidence of buyers, at least until the November-December trading range is challenged. For the S&P. 2,000 looms overhead, but until this is challenged there is little to add. The Nasdaq closed near today's highs as it sits on the verge of  a new On-Balance-Volume 'buy' trigger. The Russell 2000 had only a small gain, but it has the most work to do to rebuild confidence.  On the positive front, it's close to a 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume. Another index doing well is the Semiconductor Index. It registered nearly a 1% gain as it looks to recover 2016 losses. Supply doesn't become a concern until 650 is reached. Tomorrow is a chance for bulls to kick on and put further distance on the recent swing low.. Not much more to add until then. Buyers can now look with greater confidence to accumulate pull backs.

Archive

Show more