Showing posts from April, 2010

Daily Market Commentary: Is the Bounce Done?

Big gains on low volume retraced much of Tuesday's losses. But the question now is whether there is the impetus on the part of bulls to push markets higher? The S&P regained the 20-day MA although technicals remain weak. Watch for retest of former support turned resistance. If this is the case there is still plenty of scope for gains - even if the net effect is bearish. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq went a step further and recorded an accumulation day on strong volume. The only catch is the proximity of former support turned resistance is to current price; this rally hasn't much room to run before it encounters supply. ($COMPQ) via Small Caps enjoyed a more traditional bounce given it finished its period of weakness on support. ($RUT) via The same was true for the Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) via Today was the easy day for bulls, tomorrow is a coin toss. Watch for a non-event day perhaps finishing with a narrow

Daily Market Commentary: Temporary Defense By Bulls

No surprise to see modest recoveries in the indices but it was a mixed bag in terms of the significance of today's buying For the S&P look to the 20-day MA to play as resistance as the bounce matures. ($SPX) via But small caps were able to hold trend support ($RUT) via And the Nasdaq 100 also defended channel support with a hammer (but given stochastics are not oversold its significance is reduced) ($NDX) via So while support is available to hold, don't expect bulls to capitulate as easy as it had looked the past couple of days. However, a larger pullback is required if the rally is to continue in the long term. Follow Me on Twitter Build a Trading Strategy in Zignals; Read how and earn real money (once out of Beta) in this PDF. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for , offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets, also available through the latest rich internet app

Daily Market Commentary: Don't Fall for the Red Herring

January was the last time markets experienced the kind of selling seen today. The usual suspects were rolled out as explanation , but the troubles of Greece, Portugal or Goldman Sachs are nothing new and last week's breakouts were achieved on the back of such issues. Today was a follow though from yesterday' selling, a cascade of profit taking as last week's breakouts ran into trouble. The fundamental issue at stake is not the debt of Portugal, Greece or Ireland, but that of Spain or Italy. The dominoes have started to fall and it's only a matter of time before the "rating agencies" strike a pen through the credit worthiness of Italy and Spain. Putting together a rescue package for either of these economies within the confines of the Euro will be a sticky wicket. But that's another day's story and one which will hurt the markets much more than Greece did today. Bringing things back to today there was a number of significant bearish developments, bu

Stock Market Commentary: Shooting Stars Small Caps & Semiconductors

The day closed on quiet trading with potential bearish topping patterns for the Russell 2000 and the Semiconductor index, but weakened by the lack of confirmation from Nasdaq or S&P indices (although the Dow did manage a similar shooting star). The semiconductor index had the clearest topping pattern but it will require a close below today's low to confirm and preferably an open below the low too. The rising trendline is there to lend support should the SOX push lower Tuesday. ($SOX) via Small Caps also finished with a shooting star. After 4-days of gains it's probably set for a down day Tuesday; rising support may be tested then too. ($RUT) via The Dow finished with a similar bearish set up. Unlike the aforementioned indices this has already fallen out of its February rising channel and looks already to be rolling over in a topping pattern. ($INDU) via Breadth indicators continued their ascent and I have redrawn

Weekly Review of Publishers' Charts; New Highs To Start The Week

With the final flourish to the end of week it was another tick in the endless bull column. Not much you can say other than the endless cut-and-paste of 'how much higher?' For Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave we are in the fifth wave higher for both the daily and weekly chart of the Nasdaq; no end in sight. Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview still showing a relative mixed bag on the breadth front - certainly not enough to suggest a clear top. So look for another week of gains? Automated strategy trailing the stop ever higher - no reason to be a seller Already a top based on the following set of signals; but we have been here before Note resistance in the S&P on the dailies with bearish divergences for supporting technicals; another cue to exit but will the majority take it? But note the triangle breakout target of $51.48 for the QQQQ Treasury Yields breaking out - good for commodities bad for bonds: Richard Lehman of Trendchannelmagic offers

Weekly Market Commentary: Buyers Drive Markets Higher

It was a good week for market bulls. The Nasdaq broke past the lower of the two resistance highs of 2008 but finished just high of the 2008 high. If the Nasdaq can crack 2,535 it will be racing towards pre-recession highs (unbelievable!) Nasdaq via The Nasdaq 100 went further; it cracked the 2008 high and is on the way to testing the second of two reaction highs of 2007. ($NDX) But the S&P is significantly lagging, lying a few points off resistance / former support, which broke during the 2008 credit crisis crash. ($SPX) via Small Caps closed the week up almost 4% but has room to maneuver to 2008 highs ($RUT) via Market Breadth indicators are mixed. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50-day MA is still pegged by declining resistance from 2009 ($NAA50R) via Although the Nasdaq Summation Index has pushed a new multi-year high. Nasdaq Summation Index (Ratio Adjusted) ($NASI) via StockCharts

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Keep The Pressure On

Small Caps again took charge and dragged Tech indices with the help of the semiconductor index. Bulls used rising support to launch their attack as the Russell 2000 added another percentage point. Supporting technicals made modest gains but are mapping bearish divergences with lower highs - but bulls won't be complaining too much. ($RUT) via The Nasdaq managed a new closing high, Thursday's trading engulfing the narrow trading range from Wednesday. It's nicely set up for a positive Friday. ($COMPQ) via The semiconductor index added close to 2%, negating what was the most bearish close from the indices I track ($SOX) via The strength in Small Caps and Tech filtered down to at least a positive finish for the S&P. But even here there is enough to suggest Friday could follow through higher ($SPX) via Markets are nicely poised to continue higher - extended though they are. Will Amazon and Microsoft

Daily Market Commentary: S&P Stall in Bounce But Small Caps Follow On

Not surprising to see the advance stall as prior highs are approached, but it wasn't all doom and gloom. For the S&P volume climbed to register a bearish distribution day; the second heavier volume selling day in four - although market indecision lessens volumes' significance. Technicals favour the bear side but were little changed on the day. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq had a more traditional indecisive doji and the challenge is set for bulls to drive this higher. Swing traders can look to take advantage of the narrow intraday spread to set entry and exit points. ($COMPQ) via But the semiconductor index dipped into the prior gap in a clear selloff, finding demand at the rising trendline off February lows. The CCI switched to a 'sell' trigger. ($SOX) via However, small caps managed a new closing high for the February-April rally which should help Tech and Large Caps. ($RUT) via So can Small Ca

Daily Market Commentary: Bounce Day 2

The second day of the bounce saw more inroads into Friday's losses. Whether the S&P recovered from the breakdown is up for discussion but volume was disappointing compared to Friday's selloff. Technicals edged lower but there was no significant shift to the bears side (i.e. no new triggers). ($SPX) via Small Caps had the best of the days action with over a 1% gain (good news for bulls with speculative issues leading on the day). The CCI 'sell' trigger from Friday was negated and rising support from February lows held. ($RUT) via Tech was lackluster with the Nasdaq 100 neutral doji on a MACD 'sell'; looking vulnerable for Wednesday. Swing trade the doji (use 1% stop on flip High/Low) ($NDX) via Of breadth indicators the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50-day MA has its own problems with the bearish cross of 5-day EMA on MACD, plus Relative Strength and CCI trigger 'sells'. Note bearish diverge


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