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Showing posts from February, 2006

Trade Ideas: KG

Taken from the Channel scan. Earnings due tomorrow, but the stock has made a small, handle breakout, in the run up to this figure. Market breakouts in Tech, small caps, and S&P have helped drive today's gains. Point-n-figure target of $33 is not unreasonable, but there is resistance at $20.62 from 2004 to consider first. King Pharmaceuticals, Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, marketing, and sale of branded prescription pharmaceutical products. It offers various branded prescription products over seven therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular, endocrinology, neuroscience, critical care, anti-infective, respiratory, and other. The company also develops, manufactures, and sells auto-injectors for the self-administration of injectable drugs. In addition, King Pharmaceuticals provides contract pharmaceutical manufacturing services to third-party pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as transfers company’s manufacturing and marketing rights to third parti

Trade Ideas vs Fallond vs Jim Cramer. December 16th

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Because I had no list of 8 Trade Ideas picks for December 23rd, I decided to use the previous weeks picks (December 16th). JC's picks are from the Madd Money website - unfortunately, there was no listing of his lightning round picks for his December 15th show (which could be bought on the December 16th open), so I used his bullish picks from the December 16th show (released after the market close), which means the open price would exclude the Mad Money boost. My own picks are based on the open price of my picks drawn from December 15th closing data. The Trade Ideas stock picks were the clear winner, with a fantastic average return of 14% per trade, and a 88% win percentage, for the two month period. USG, ALKS, and KEYS, made up for the disappointing VMSI. My own picks nicked Jim's for second place - although both of our returns were close enough to consider it a draw. Jim was let down by DNA, and STJ, while SANM was my bogey pick. All three selections of stock picks outperfor

From: Fallondpicks.com

Resistance trading in the NASDAQ , but a potential breakout in the NASDAQ 100 . And perhaps an opportunity for the Russell 2000 to lead the markets once again. The NASDAQ gained on light volume, wedged between the 20-day/50-day MAs and channel resistance. Technicals are mildly bullish, but are still influenced by the MACD bearish divergence. The NASDAQ 100 had been the hardest hit of the two Tech indices over the last few weeks, but Friday's gains could classify as a breakout - although the 50-day MA is still resistance. The Russell 2000 was the days' best performer with a resistance breakout, and a MACD trigger "buy". The Dow held 11,047 support, after an intraday bounce off 11,000. The S&P created an inside day, on light volume, and has swing trade potential from the day's high/lows. Based on the behavior of the Dow , there should be a supporting breakout in the S&P . Keep an eye on the relationship between the S&P and Russell 2000 . The Russe

Trade Ideas: FHR, EC, STXS, MOLXA, FIX, ATK, CPS, TRBS

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The Channel scan turned up three candidates for today: FHR, EC, and STXS. It also turned up two candidates which appeared on the historical look back, but not during the trading day, over the course of this week: MOLXA, and FIX. The remaining three stocks were picked from the original Base Scan. FHR : Flat-lined on $45 takeover bid. Unlikely to get much out of this, but included because of the nature of the scan. EC : As above. Hostile takeover bid by BASF at $37-38. Company board fighting the Bid. STXS : Showed up earlier in the day - by the time I picked it up it had already moved 11%. Solid, low volume consolidation, followed by higher volume buying to push the stock above the 20-day MA. Supply at $15 to chew threw, but looks good. Unfortunately, Hawaii time difference prevented my from seeing this one sooner. MOLXA : Interesting why this didn't show up before. Prospects at the 20-day MA. Key resistance at $33. FIX : Has held support of the 50-day MA very well. Steady uptrend, i

Fallondpicks.com: Movers and Shakers

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If you are interested in getting the latest stocks to watch for the trading day, check in at this link at about 6 am ET. If you need to find information I may have posted about an individual stock, enter the symbol in my Site Search .

Trade Ideas: GTK, EMC, XEC, SWX, NKE, LNG, RTU, OPNT

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Only the first stock on the list, GTK, featured on the Channel Scan. The remainder were drawn from the Base Scan. GTK : Hugging the 50-day MA. Watch for break of $33.50. Point-n-figure target of $57 looks interesting. EMC : Sneaking a move over the 200-day MA (but after a 'Death cross' in the 50-day/200-day MAs. Short term move to watch for is a test of $14.50 resistance. Stops on a loss of $13.50 XEC : Bounce of $40 looks to be holding at the 50-day MA. Next advance should be to test $48 resistance. Stops on a loss of the day's lows SWX : Consolidated yesterday's gains, holding the upper range from yesterday's trading - bullish. Breakout buyers will be waiting for a close over $28 before acting. Stops on a loss of $27.50 NKE : Approaching $88 resistance. Broad, symmetrical triangle on the weekly chart. Projected move is for $108. Point-n-figure target of $100 is a logical intermediate term target (3 weeks-6 months). LNG : Flat(ish), rounding bottom, covering 2 1/2

Pesky Meddling Kids....

Came across Jonathan Lebed's new scheme on one of my forays into the internet. Looks like he is using his former infamy as part of his marketing (check his press release section). Ho Hum.

Will the Nasdaq Summation index signal a top?

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I was somewhat frustrated to see the Nasdaq Summation Index back above, what I consider to be, a bullish trigger line (5-day EMA) in the daily chart. Unfortunately for bulls, there appears to be little leg room for this indicator to advance further. What it means for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 remains to be seen. Keep an eye on the weekly version of this indicator, and its corrsponding MACD. The weekly MACD has provided a decent marker for tops (and bottoms), and the next crossover (bearish) may not be far away. fallond

Trade Ideas: AMSC, LECO, ASGN, TRBS, CBSH, PDLI, UNIZ, FLO

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Just to get this one out before the stock market closes. AMSC, LECO, and ASGN are from the Channel scan. The remaining 5 stocks are taken from the Base Scan.

Fallondpicks.com: Mover and Shaker

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This was one of my free picks for January 24th , and was later added to my Collective2 portfolio. Today's 17% gain was triggered by a "Buy" rating from Oppenheimer . One to watch. HBX

BFLY vs AMZN: David vs Goliath

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BFLY popped up in my Breakout scan for Wednesday, following a few days of heavy volume buying, on it ways towards tomorrow's earnings. But my interest was not to do with it as a great 'Buy' candidate, but was in part, based on an article from Safehaven about 'Vodoo' Technical analysis. And a developing Technical vs Fundamental argument on Roberto's NASDAQ Trader Blog. In my background check on BFLY, Yahoo had listed a news article from the Motley Fool about Amazon, which had a passing (emphasis on the 'passing') mention on Bluefly. AMZN is certainly the opposite of what BLFY is in terms of scale of business, and profitability - so were there any parallels I could draw? Fundamental analysis has its merits, but like Technical analysis, much of it is to do with projections based on prior trends. Unforseens (e.g. Katrina), will impact on the fundamental picture (albeit delayed), just as much as they impact on price (except impacts on price are more, or

Fallondpicks.com: Mover and Shaker

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This was a recent Subscriber pick (and later Free Breakout pick). Nice follow through on Friday's gains. Keep on the watch list for a low risk entry candlestick if looking to buy, or add. ADAM fallond

Trade Ideas: ZRAN, DV, CAV, ETP, GAS, BTU, DIOD, CEDC

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My new consolidation scan only turned up two candidates: ZRAN, DV. The first, you will see, is a bust (the scan goes on prior day's data - so today's big sell off is would not be detected by the scan). The second, DV, has some merits - particularly as price is sitting right on the 20-day MA. The remaining six picks are from my original Trade-Ideas scan, which has performed very well to-date. ZRAN : Down big on the day, and not a recommendation at this stage. 50-day MA may provide some support - but I wouldn't bet on it. This scan still needs tinkering. Weekly chart was looking good, still time for it to recover - but the gap will create suppy issues on any attempt to break $21. DV : The same scan as used to pick ZRAN, but a much nicer chart. Low volume consolidation which has allowed the 20-day MA to rise to greet it. Low risk with a stop 10 cents below today's low. Look for a $4 move (short term). Looks to be a preperation for a break of $24 (see weekly chart) - in whi

From: Fallondpicks.com

Friday's low volume, options expiration day, reversed most of Thursday's gains - leaving traders at a point of selling resistance in Tech markets, while bulls looked to capitalize on strength in the large caps [ Dow and S&P ]. The NASDAQ finished the week inside a two-month declining channel, negating Thursday's supposed breakout, but on a bullish reversal in all three supporting technical indicators (MACD, OBV, and slow stochastics). The NASDAQ 100 is clinging on to its resistance breakout, but not before logging a bearish distribution day. The semiconductor index took the biggest hit on Friday, and is again, lingering around 20-day MA support. Supporting Tech. secondary indicators [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] gained, but the $NASI ended the week shy of a bullish cross in the 5-day EMA. I can see another 'bad' long signal coming here; the $NAA50 is at levels associate with tops, not bottoms (or good buying levels). The Russell

Trade Ideas: Follow up February 10th

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Trade Ideas again took the honors on the week. All 8 picks were profitable; six of which returned 2% or more. The average Trade-Ideas return of 2.77%, outperformed the ETF average of 1.67%. JC followed up with a decent 1.35%, leaving myself, a laggard at 0.76%. Only the Trade-Ideas scan, and the ETFs recorded a 100% win percentage. For my next set of Trade Ideas picks, I will use my new scan as the primary stock picker, and make up the numbers with the original scan I have been using up 'til now. JC's picks taken from Madd Money . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to Subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money

Trade Ideas: ACS

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Using the new channel parameters I defined yesterday, the scan picked up ACS. Yesterday's pick, OCN, also featured again. The chart does have a large tick error, but what is important, is the narrow trading channel, which shaped off the large breakout. Buy break of resistance, stops on a loss of support. Look for a move to $68. Affiliated Computer Services, Inc. provides business process and information technology outsourcing solutions to commercial and government clients. It operates through two segments, Commercial and Government. Commercial segment offers business process outsourcing services, including administration, human resources and related consulting, finance and accounting, customer care, and payment services. ACS

Trade Ideas Update February 9th

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Market ETF's were once again the weeks winners, a very reasonable 1.62% return on 100% profitability. The Trade-Ideas scan followed with a 1.09% weekly return, but higher gains were hampered by the 6.79% loss in TMNG. JC and I both banked another loss; my picks were hampered by ADAM, which knocked the (more, or less) flat returns of the other picks. JC had a big loser in UPL (11.79%), and this was enough for him to finish in last place. JC's picks taken from Madd Money .

Trade Ideas: OCN

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I am still working on a new scan using the Max/Min consolidation feature and associated percentages. So far, I have not gone with a select alert (just the heartbeat) as my window filter settings only turn up a few stocks a day. Current settings: Min Daily Volume: 100,000 Shares a day Min Volume Today: 110% Min up from 200day SMA: 1% Max up from 200day SMA: 50% Min up from 50day SMA: 1% Max up from 50day SMA: 10% Min consolidation: 7 days Max consolidation: 25 days Max position in Consolidation: 110% If you put these into the software for today, you get OCN Yesterday the scan pick would have been: LECO On Valentines: ISLE, LIN, LECO, NSIT, PH, VAR, DSU, CSQ OCN

Trade Ideas Update February 8th

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Unfortunately, I messed up yesterday on JC'c picks. The picks I listed as his for Tuesday (i.e. Monday's show), were actually the picks which were to be used today. So these are the same Madd Money picks, which were featured on the February 7th show. I have listed the Market ETF's in place of the indices. The ETF's were the winner on the week, returning an average of 1.73%. This was closely followed by the Trade-Ideas selection. My own picks were a disaster - although the Subscriber picks at least did better than the three free Breakout picks. JC had the lowest win %, but his average loss was greater than my own stock picks.

Collective2: SYMM out.

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SYMM was stopped out on a loss of the lows of my entry candlestick. The play is not totally dead, given it held the 20-day MA into the close - but I was particular in my stop placement. The trade closed for a $460 loss on a 1,000 share lot.

Trade Ideas: Follow up Feb 7th

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Once again, I am using the first 8 bullish lightning picks from Madd Money from February 6th. Unlike yesterday's performance, the stocks from the Trade-Ideas scan outperformed mine, and JC's picks. If it wasn't for CKNN it would have been a white wash for Trade-Ideas. If one was to remove CKNN from the list, the average return would bump up to 3.22%. Whereas taking TESOF out of my picks, only pushes the average return to +0.64%. JC had the weakest set of picks - so I'll take some comfort from that. However, the markets outperformed all the three sets of picks. The DOW was the clear winner following today's big gains.

Trade Ideas: SI

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I am still working on a new Trade Ideas scan to test for the next couple of months. I am happy with my original scan, I just want to try something else. Just a quick post to make note of SI (drawn from the original scan). Nice flag breakout, with good risk:reward. SI

Trade Ideas: Follow up from Feburary 6th

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I have included my own newsletter picks, and the first 8 lightning round picks of Jim Cramer from Friday (from Madd Money ), February 3rd. For both sets of picks I have used Monday's open price as the 'entry price'. Unfortunately, I was unable to post last Monday's Trade-Ideas picks during trading hours - so I am using the closing price as the 'entry' price, giving mine and JC's picks a full trading day advantage. All three sets of stock picks underperformed the market on average, and none of the stock sets were able to generate an overall profit. JC and I recorded a 50% win, with my Trade-Ideas scan underperfoming, with a 38% win. However, the Trade-Ideas stocks had the lowest standard deviation in returns (0.02%), compared to the more volatile picks of my own (0.07%). Individually, my newsletter picks brought greater gains, but also bigger losses, compared to the Trade-Ideas selection. FYI, JC's picks had a standard deviation of 0.05%.

KGC testing 50-day MA

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I have taken KGC as an example, but other mining stocks are in a similar situation. Speculative money is fast exiting the sector, but the sell off has pushed prices down to the 50-day MA. Looking at the chart for KGC, the chief difference between now, and the previous 50-day MA test, is the state of the MACD. Short term, expect more downside - but watch how the MACD behaves, if it starts to indicate a potential bullish cross, then KGC will be a good intermediate term play (3 weeks - 6 months). KGC

From: Fallondpicks.com

Value players stepped up to the plate in Friday afternoon trading, to push the markets into green territory. The short term picture favors the bulls, but with supply at the previous two reaction highs, it will be much harder for intermediate and long term traders to benefit. Adding insult to injury was the meager volume - the Big Money was not buying into the late day rally. What of the individual markets? The NASDAQ closed inside the Fibonacci retracement area, but finished the week below its 50-day, and 20-day MAs. Technicals remained weak. The NASDAQ 100 ended Friday with a bullish harami, bouncing off the lower Bollinger band. But, the 20-day MA crossed below the 50-day MA (a mini-'Death cross'), and with the 200-day MA below it looks like we will see a test of the latter average, before we see any meaningful rally develop. The Dow failed in its second attempt to close above 10,940 resistance, which was so troublesome in December, and could be the basis for a reversal he

Fallond / Trade Ideas / J. Cramer: Nov 30th

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Another comparison, this time including the stock picks drawn from the Trade-Ideas scan. As before, I have sourced Mad Money picks of Jim Cramer to Madd Money . In order to do the comparisons I restricted the number of stocks in each group to the lowest common denominator (i.e. my 6 picks). I used the first six stocks from the Trade-Ideas scan, and the first six stocks from Jim's lightning round from the Madd Money site. The comparison is for the closing price of November 30th, to the closing price of February 10th. Points of note: [1] All markets are above November levels, but are well off their highs (no surpises there). But we are looking at a bull market for this time period. [2] The Trade-Ideas picks gave the most consistent returns, while Jim's picks gave the highest average returns. [3] Unfortunately, the returns from my own picks suffered because of the two short plays: ITMN, and NVT. Excluding the two short plays my average return for the period jumps to 15.65% - b

Trade Ideas: AXE, WMG, PERS, BXS, APD, NCR, ISSX, CBK

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Today's selection popped up on the scan software in a couple of minutes. AXE : Found support at the 20-day MA as the low volume consolidation completed. A more protracted base is needed to consolidate gains from $28. The trend is your friend, and at current prices it has decent long side possibilities WMG : Trading inside a 5-week base. Real move should occur on a break of $21.50. Projected target is $26. Stops go on a loss of $20. PERS : Frequent scan regular. The initial position was stopped out on the broad, one day-spread, but the stock is back to pressuring $15.15 resistance. Will today be the day? BXS : 50-day has acted as good support over the last couple of weeks. $24 remains the price to beat (it wasn't to long ago when it was $23.50). Slow and steady wins the race and this looks to be one of those stocks. For the week chart, $24.50 is the price to beat. APD : The 'Golden Cross' of the 50-day MA/200-day MA was the impetus to set off the current rally from $58.

Trade Ideas: TLGD, MTD, CVP, KVHI, GD, TMNG, MED, CMD

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Thursday's selection of 8 stocks took 27 minutes to appear, and the last one on the list looks to have reversed soon after it reached the parameters I had set for the scan, over the course of the 27 minutes. TLGD : Convergence of 20-day and 50-day MA should strengthen support. Unfortunately, the stock has formed somewhat of an erratic base in the $9.50-$12.00 range. Best to wait for break of $12.00, or buy aggressive on the next drop to $10. Current buyers should run a stop on a loss of $10.75. MTD : Tuesday's shooting star needs to be watched. The stock did find support upon closing the breakout gap, and Thursday's inside day should favor the bulls. Stop on a loss of $59, look for a move to $67. CVP : Inches up on light volume. Previous area of supply ($12.75) should be good support. $13.10 proving to be a bit of a stickler, but can enter here with relatively low capital risk. Buying a sizable (or more importantly, selling) position could be tricky. KVHI : $11.50 is the wa

Trade Ideas: IOTN, CSCO, SWFT, VFC, BLI, WWE, GIB, AATI

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Today's selection took all of 4 minutes to appear on the scans, better stuff from the markets. IOTN : Buy break of $10.25, stop on a loss of $9.75. This has been one, long, consolidation, dating back to early 2004 after its jump from $0.50. Tightly coiled and ready to move. The point-n-figure target of $20.50 looks to be the best bet CSCO : Weekly chart is of greater relevance. Watch for break of $20. Point-n-figure chart is holding to a bearish target of $13.50. Resistance at $29 looks to best place to sell. SWFT : Bounding around $22-24. Golden cross of 50-day/200-day MA favors the bulls. Resistance at $26. Projected target of $36. Run stops on a loss of $22. VFC : Pushed through the 200-day MA and 50-day MA on heavy volume. Can it hold a break of $58 into the close (prior resistance). Looks a little rich here when stops go on a loss of $54.65. At $56 it will have merits. BLI : Bounced off $13. Nice support here although the initial test of $14 resistance failed. Point-n-figure t

Stick a man in the wilderness

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Unrelated to trading, but worth watching with a beer in hand. Les Stroud, alone in the wilderness, for seven days, with just his camera for company. Friday nights on the Science Channel. The show maybe coming to the end of its current run, unless it cycles back to the start.

Collective2: PER out

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Disappointing loss of $457 on this play. I added it to the portfolio last week, using what I thought was a reasonable stop - but today's big gap down on pre-market earnings whipped the position out. This was of course followed by a rally and higher close (Murphy and his market laws at play). Gotta roll with the punches. Only two stocks left in the portfolio and I will be holding off adding new positions until this market provides some better value.

Trade Ideas: ABS, WRS, CKNN, NWEC, JJSF, ICLR, FSL, PER

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The Trade-Ideas scan took just under 30 minutes to come up with today's 8 stocks - not the strongest market to be buying. ABS : Tight handle after a rapid rise for January. Support at $24.25 (the January gap) looks best place for stops. $30 as a price target. WRS : Closes over $15. Allow room for intraday whipsaw but the 40-week MA has acted very well as support and looks a good place for stops. CKNN : Thinly traded but small doji at 50-day MA has long side merits. Weekly chart shows some strong buying spikes, so there are buyers lurking. A Friday close above $9.50 should see momentum interest. NWEC : Nice handle with good support at $30.75. Buy break of $32 - stops on a loss of $30.75. Heavy volume breakout gap from $29 looks to be holding which is a good marker for demand. JJSF : Probably best to wait for break of $31.50 as the stock works its way through a 2-month consolidation. Rising money flow, and a 50-day MA which is trying to act as support as part of a larger uptrend in t

Trade Ideas: WRS, KEX, TRBS, CLP, SFC, ADIC, BDN, IYT

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Working with closing data on this one so gaps will be a concern if looking for fills at Monday's prices. WRS : Thinly traded but is pressuring $15 resistance. Weekly chart is the one to look at as the 40-week MA rises to meet current prices. This was a launching pad for the stock this time last year. Will it be second time lucky? KEX : Nice pullback entry here. The big gap breakout of $55.50 has fully retraced and buyers are once again nibbling. Run stops on a loss of the 50-day MA and look to the point-n-figure target of $70 TRBS : Weekly chart shows a 15-month base with key resistance at $34. Current daily chart shows a conoslidation break from $30. Stops can be placed on a loss of $29 which allows for three support areas; $30, 50-day MA, and 200-day MA. Measured move target is $42. CLP : Right up against $46 resistance from the summer of 2005. Very strong money flow. GTC buy limit orders at $46.21 will protect against any false move which triggers at $46.05 or below. Stops on a

From: Fallondpicks.com

The week ended on a down note with mixed bearish and bullish notes. Bulls will be watching the 50-day MA in the NASDAQ and the 20-day MA in the semiconductor index for a bounce on Monday, while the Russell 2000 remains 8 points clear of its 20-day MA. Fibonacci retracements remain important for support in the NASDAQ and the S&P . Unfortunately it looks like bears hold most of the cards with bearish divergences in the MACD firm in all indices. Adding insult to injury was the loss of near term support in the semiconductor index (increasing the importance of the 20-day MA), and a drop below bullish Fibonacci retracements in the NASDAQ 100 and Dow . Selling volume increased in the NASDAQ 100 and Dow , ranking Friday's selling as distribution. Also of note was the loss of support in the NASDAQ 100 to S&P ratio; with tech giving way to large caps there is sector rotation from speculation to safety - typical topping action. The tech secondary indicators [ $NASI , $NAA50

Trade Ideas Follow up from Jan 26th & 27th

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January 27th This weeks losses, assisted by Friday's drop, pushed markets into the red for an average decline of 1.46% on the week. The Trade Ideas stocks were mixed with MAR and VSL the heaviest losers. The average return was better than the market as a whole, but it was not pretty. January 26th Market indices closed flat on the week (+0.04%) compared to modest gains in the Trade-Ideas picks. Biggest loser was UFPI while SMSC was the highest gainer.

Collective 2: SIGM stopped out

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Some late day action looks to have triggered a series of stop hits before closing the day much where it had started. The test of the 20-day MA is a positive for the bulls and if it can close higher Monday (even if it doesn't make new near term highs) then today's action would rate as a fire sale prior to a big move up. I had wanted to protect a good profit with my relatively tight stop; $4,310 on a 1,000 share lot for a 2 1/2 month period - but by doing so I couldn't protect myself from these intraday swings. Harry Boxer had some favorable comments on the stock and he thinks $30 could be in its future. There are still two stocks left in the portfolio and a trade signal I have in the market which has yet to trigger.

Trade Ideas: PER

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I have posted a weekly chart which nicely illustrates the break of resistance and subsequent confirmation of new support. By running a stop on a loss of $14.50 and buying a break of $15.00 one could have a reasonable low risk entry. Short term - look for a move to the $16.50-$17.00 range. More likely will be further consolidation in this price range and a second breakout to take it to $22. Perot Systems Corporation provides information technology services and business solutions worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Industry Solutions, Government Services, and Technology Services. PER

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