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Showing posts from September, 2014

Small Caps take the brunt of selling

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The aversion to risk continued with Small Caps edging a break below the July swing low on a loss of nearly 1.5%. However, the larger trading range is intact until 1,090 is lost. The 200-day MA is also nearby to lend support. As for today's action, more selling is favored for tomorrow, although action in other indices isn't pointing so bearish.

Friday's Bullish Picture Holds Despite Mild Selling

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Friday's buying volume was disappointing, but indices held on in the face of today's distribution. Today's lows mark the new support level for stops, although moving averages are also playing as a broad brush of support. The S&P finished with a doji on its 50-day MA.  Technicals remain mixed with a bearish slant in MACD, On-Balance-Volume, and ADX, but with momentum on the bullish side.  The index is tied below 1,987 resistance, but is positioned for a challenge of this level tomorrow.

Daily Market Commentary: A Recovery Lacking Volume

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It was a noble effort on the part of bulls, but it lacked the volume to really pressure bears.  However, Friday's action did offer bulls something to work with on Monday, while bears have one option to play with. The Nasdaq is working on a possible 'bear trap' with a return above the 50-day MA, and a close above 4,485. Risk is measured on a loss of 4,475.

Daily Market Commentary: Reversing Yesterday's Gain with a Bigger Loss

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It proved to be an ugly day all around. Yesterday's recovery rallies were quickly taken out with today's heavy losses. Attempts to find support at 50-day MAs and/or channel support were pushed aside. However, these losses have some way to run before August swing lows are challenged. The S&P could look to mount a new rally, although I suspect it will struggle to get close to 1,987.  If it can't move above its 50-day MA, or finds resistance near this moving average, then shorts will have an entry opportunity for a push down to August swing lows and/or 200-day MA.

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish Engulfing Pattern in S&P on 50-day MA

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An important day for the S&P when a successful test of the 50-day MA was combined with a bullish engulfing pattern.  Better still, the index was able to finish above 1,987, a key support level. Technicals are seeping negativity, but not enough to be outright bearish.

Daily Market Commentary: S&P Possible 'Bull Trap'

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It's perhaps a bit of a reach, but the S&P closed below key 1,987 support in what could turn into a 'bull trap'.  What makes the 'bull trap' a tenuous conclusion is the 3 day decline required to get it there. Also, the index hasn't yet tested its 50-day MA, this should be an area of demand.  Technicals are developing bearish, but are not net bearish. Bulls will have another opportunity at the 50-day MA which could see a test tomorrow.

Daily Market Commentary: 'Bull Trap' Confirmed in Semiconductor Index

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The failed breakout in the Semiconductor Index expanded with another loss above 1%.  Monday's loss took it below the 20-day MA, kept the MACD 'sell' trigger in play and generated a CCI 'sell' trigger.

Daily Market Commentary: Higher Volume Selling, and Bearish Engulfing Pattern in Russell 2000 and Semiconductor Index

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In day when Alibaba took the headlines , it was left to the Russell 2000 and Semiconductor Index to warn of potential change. The Russell 2000 experienced a large bearish engulfing pattern, although within the boundaries of the declining channel. There was an undercut of the 200-day MA, which will need to be watched on Monday. Shorts could get aggressive with a stop above 1,164 (and/or declining channel line).

Daily Market Commentary: Accumulation

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Bulls had another good day; a third good day in a row.  The Dow capped the day with a breakout into what could turn a larger measured move higher. Volume rose in accumulation, and residual bearish technicals were negated on the move higher.

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors Advance

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It was a roller coaster day, but the Semiconductor Index was the one to finish with an edge to the bulls. It looks like a break of 652 will happen sooner rather than later, with the swing low at 631 a handy place to mark risk (for a stop).

Daily Market Commentary: Breakouts and Bullish Reversals

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The bullish reaction was swift and strong.  Shorts who took advantage of the break of support were quickly put on the back foot. The S&P regained 1,987 support and delivered a breakout of the declining channel. Technicals will take a few days to recover, but relative strength took a sharp swing in Large Caps favour.

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Take Another Hit

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Headlines may have suggested otherwise for markets, but Small Caps had a rough day. The Russell 2000 lost over 1% in a slice through both 50-day and 200-day MAs. It's ugly because Small Caps have to re-establish a new price channel and each daily loss makes this new channel less and less bullish. Technicals are not net bearish, but they are not looking good either.

Daily Market Commentary: Distribution Returns

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It was a second day of heavier volume selling in four for the S&P, and the fifth day of distribution since the last accumulation day. The breakout of 1,987 was undercut by Friday's close in addition to a finish below the 20-day MA. Bulls still have room for maneuver with the 50-day MA next in line for a test; even a modest rally Monday would be enough to return the S&P above its breakout.  The higher volume selling is a concern, but not a deal breaker for bulls...yet.

Daily Market Commentary: Strong Day for Russell 2000

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It was a modest day for the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq indices, but it was a better day for the Russell 2000. The recovery in the Russell 2000 after the channel breakdown took a big step forward as it worked itself off its 50-day MA and finished above its 20-day MA. The breakdown remains, but this will likely shape itself into a broader (more shallow, and therefore more sustainable) rally.

Daily Market Commentary: 20-day Moving Averages Hold For Now

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Buyers made inroads into yesterday's relatively mild losses. The point of defense were 20-day MAs of the S&P, Dow, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.  The Russell 2000 found its love at the 50-day MA, although the 20-day MA is only a few points above it. While this offers near term upside opportunity, it has been rare for the 20-day MA to act as a launch point for a longer rally. Don't be surprised if this MA is again revisited next week. The S&P has perhaps the most to gain given the significance of 1,987 support as it looks to push beyond the psychological 2,000 level. If there is a concern it's that technicals are favouring an expansion of the weakness: a move to the 50-day MA may be needed first.

Daily Market Commentary: Russell 2000 Breakdown

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Sellers brought with them volume, but only the Russell 2000 finished the day with a breakdown. The Russell 2000 is trading within a larger, and more significant consolidation, but today's break ends the July-September rally, or at least broadens it. The presence of key moving averages offers additional support to work with, first of which is today's test of the 50-day MA.

Daily Market Commentary: S&P disappoints, but Nasdaq and Russell 2000 play to form.

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It wasn't a stellar day, but Tech and Small Caps started to deliver on Friday's promise. The S&P experienced mild losses, keeping itself within the boundaries of its narrow trading range. However, S&P technicals favour bulls.

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish End of Week

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After a week of drip losses, bulls came back with a bit of a flourish to finish the week on a positive note. The Semiconductor Index didn't offer bears a sniff of an opportunity. The inverse hammer from Thursday could have delivered a short position had it undercut the Thursday low, but this didn't happen; instead, it just fell shy of clearing 652 - the July swing high.  A break of 652 is looking more likely for the week ahead. Watch for a new consolidation handle off 652 resistance before the push higher.

Daily Market Commentary: Volatility Expands

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After a series of relatively narrow intraday spreads, today was a day when the spread widened.  It didn't change too much technically but it's a worry given bulls had started the day so brightly. There are longside opportunities available.  The Russell 2000 brushed against lower channel support and will offer a buying opportunity if the channel holds.

Daily Market Commentary: Bearish Inverse Hammer for S&P

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Another day of relatively modest action, although the S&P did finish with a bearish inverse hammer which may lead to further weakness tomorrow. A retest of 1,987 would still honor the trading range delivering a down day, but keeping the larger bullish picture intact.

Daily Market Commentary: A Quiet Start to the Week

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There wasn't much to say after the long weekend. The Nasdaq added to Friday's gain with another narrow day of higher volume accumulation. The gain was small, but as part of the rally from the August swing low it's currently up 6.3%. Technicals are good, and not suggesting any immediate weakness is forthcoming.

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