Posts

Showing posts from January, 2013

Daily Market Commentary: Mixed Day

Image
An odd day for the markets with a mix of gains (Russell 2000) and losses (anything else!). Volume climbed to register distribution for the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and S&P, but given the degree of loss it's more like churning than hard defined selling. The S&P sharply reversed its relative gain against the Russell 2000, but is close to a MACD trigger 'sell'.

Daily Market Commentary: Late Selling

Image
Profit taking paid a visit to the market. Small Caps experienced the worst of the day's selling. The index finished with a loss over 1% and is fast tracking towards its 20-day MA. The Russell 2000 also closed with a MACD trigger 'sell'.

Daily Market Commentary: New Highs for S&P

Image
When I wrote at the weekend I thought we had seen our market top (at least for the S&P), but today's action surpassed it with the week not half way done. The new high doesn't change the heavily overbought nature of the rally, but what goes high can go higher. Despite the new high in the S&P, the relative shift from Large Caps to Small Caps continues.

Daily Market Commentary: "Golden Crosses"

Image
Markets experienced low volume trading, with slight losses on Friday's close. The biggest change was a couple of "Golden Crosses" for certain indices between 50-day and 200-day MAs, a long term bullish signal.  Another reason to suggest the next fall will be a buying opportunity. The S&P had little to show on the day, "Golden Cross" or otherwise. The long standing relative shift to Small Caps has been running since the end of November, but this looks to be slowly changing in favor of Large Cap stocks.

Weekly Market Commentary: New 52-Week High Spike

Image
The rally is close to a top as marked by the spike high in the 19-day EMA for both the NYSE and Nasdaq. For the NYSE, this spike is the highest in over 10 years, so there is a good chance Friday's strong finish will turn out to be the actual top for this phase of the rally.  While the Nasdaq spike hasn't reached the heights of 2003, it has exceeded spikes from previous late event rallies (e.g 2007).

Daily Market Commentary: Higher Volume Trading, But Apple Doesn't Kill Rally

Image
Apple's earnings were always going to weigh on today's action, but markets held up well.  The Nasdaq did shed near 1% on a significant increase in volume, but it didn't negate the breakout. Technicals remained in the bullish camp with little loss in strength.

Daily Market Commentary: Breadth Weakens as Markets Gain

Image
The day finished with a drop in sector breadth strength , but markets (with the exception of the Russell 2000)  posted gains.  The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA rolled higher, but technicals expanded on technical weakness, with a 'sell' in the MACD.

Daily Market Commentary: Rally Intact

Image
The long weekend didn't sate bulls appetite for shares and markets continued their advance higher, albeit on lower volume. Despite the lower volume, there was a resistance breakout for On-Balance-Volume in the S&P.  This should maintain support for the rally. The Nasdaq maintained its consolidation breakout, but it needs a solid gain to put some distance from the consolidation. The Russell 2000 has no such concerns. Today's gain maintained a run generated by the push above September's swing high. Technicals are running in overbought territory, with the index 10% above its 200-day MA. This is a good time for selling covered calls on existing holdings, with a reversion to mean likely to happen soon. In the short term, a cooling off period can be expected in the Russell 2000, but this might provide an opportunity for Tech and Large Cap indices to attract buyers and take up some of the running. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Seni

Weekly Market Commentary: Spike High in 52-Week Highs

Image
Last week, the NYSE 52-week high was approaching a spike high, but this week may actually mark the spike high.  The 19-week EMA at 419 is the highest it has been in 10-years.  The Nasdaq hasn't spiked to the same degree, but is approaching a yearly high.  However, spike highs in this indicator do not usually mark major tops, but are typically associated with the start of consolidations. The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA remains close to maxed out at 78%. Technicals are heavily overbought.  Again, as with 52-week Highs, swing highs in this breadth metric don't directly lead to a decline in the parent Nasdaq. Nasdaq Bullish Percents are inching their way towards resistance.  Technicals have only entered overbought territory, but stochastics usually remain overbought for a number of weeks before this breadth index peaks. It's a similar story for the Nasdaq Summation Index.  It's likely still a little early for a top in this breadth index.

Daily Market Commentary: Markets Breaks Higher

Image
The semiconductor index had the best of the day's action, climbing 2% and taking out the September high with ease. This move wasn't entirely followed by the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, although a minor breakout did materialize in the Nasdaq. The S&P cleared the tight consolidation from the past few days, but the extent of the reaction wasn't as great as I thought. The Russell 2000 kept its mini-follow through rally running, but again, nothing spectacular.  Bulls will be pleased too. I don't think bulls are done, with the semiconductor index likely to continue their good form.  The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 should benefit from its strong performance, although they haven't - yet - gone along for the ride. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You c

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors Gain

Image
While recent action has focused on Small Caps, it has been the semiconductor index which has quietly advanced in recent days.  Today was a solid day for the semiconductor index, gaining over 1% as it fast approaches September's high.  The gain is also good news for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, given how the rally in the Russell 2000 has stalled somewhat. For example, the Nasdaq 100 is holding on to its breakout gap.  The 20-day MA is also fast approaching and in a position to lend support. However, On-Balance-Volume is still trending lower in a path of distribution, but a few days of heavy volume buying could reverse this trend. The Nasdaq also has a consolidation to break from and a breakout gap to defend. Unlike the Nasdaq 100, it enjoyed a 'Golden Cross' between 200-day MA and 50-day MA, an important long term bullish trigger. The S&P spent another day preparing to break higher, but so far it hasn't done it, despite a higher volume accumulation day.

Daily Market Commentary: Divergence

Image
A very mixed day for the markets.  Bulls saw the best of the action in market leading Small Caps.  This just reinforced the relative gain between Small Caps and Technology indices. The S&P finished in the middle.  It was able to recover early losses and is nicely primed to push higher. On-Balance-Volume has effectively flat-lined, so the 'sell' trigger is less of a concern than it might otherwise be.  The 20-day MA is handy place for stops if going long (as is today's low for the more aggressive). The Nasdaq suffered enough of a loss to leave behind a 'bull trap'. It also added with a 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume (which is trending down => bearish), not to mention a relative shift towards more bearish Large Cap stocks. It's not looking so good for bulls, although there was a key 'Golden Cross' between 50-day and 200-day MAs. Bulls have primed the market for further gains, but the Nasdaq has thrown a little doubt into

Daily Market Commentary: Repeat of Friday

Image
Apple had set a bearish tone at the open, but bulls were able to rally at the close to leave markets poised for further gains.  Not surprisingly, the Nasdaq posted a higher volume distribution day, but it didn't negate the flag breakout.  The index remains in good shape for bulls. While Apple may be weighing on the Nasdaq, it does have the help of a vastly improving semiconductor index. A break of September's swing high would help do the same for the Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 has experienced a series of narrow range inside days, which suggests a big swing move is about to follow. This should follow the prior trend and break higher. The S&P is also ready to clear its September high. Unlike the Nasdaq, there was no distribution in this index - another positive sign. For Tuesday, watch for upside follow through following last week's consolidation breakouts ---- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community

Weekly Market Commentary: Getting A Little Toasty

Image
In the short term, we are fast approaching a swing high for new 52-week highs in the NYSE and NASDAQ; the latter exchange to a lesser extent.  When this happens markets typically ease back, but this does not necessarily mark a major top (major tops tend to develop after a divergence in this breadth indicator, which is some way off here). The Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA is also heavily overbought, although this indicator can peak weeks in advance of the actual top in the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents takes out the last swing high, but hasn't yet challenged declining resistance.  Technicals not overbought either (=> the Nasdaq rally still has room to run). Similar story for the Nasdaq Summation Index. Major swing highs typically occur when this breadth index cracks above 500, although a sub-zero high last summer did lead to big downdraft. However, action in this breadth index still favors bulls. The Nasdaq is on course to challenge 3,2

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Pressure

Image
Bulls give an inclination of the pressure they are exerting on the market, although the jump out of the gates at the start of the day wasn't built on. The Russell 2000 remained the lead index with a respectable gain, but there was no advance on the morning gap. The Nasdaq popped its head over the 5-day consolidation resistance, with On-Balance-Volume returning to a 'buy' trigger, although the volume trend remains bearish. The S&P also cleared its consolidation on higher volume accumulation. Technical strength remains good, even if relative strength clearly shows the index as a laggard. Will Friday deliver the bullish follow through? Today marked breakouts for the key indices, but there is a risk of 'false breakouts', particularly if indices are pushed back into the prior 5-day consolidation.  A break of the 6-day low for any of the aforementioned indices would mark a confirmed 'false breakout' and offer a short play. --- Follow Me on

Daily Market Commentary: Consolidation Day 5

Image
If you are a bull, the past week's action has been very kind.  Tight action, over an extended period, favors a big reaction move.  The resulting move should come in the direction of the prior trend, which in this case is bullish. New longs can look to place a stop below the 5-day low.  Aggressive players may wish to play a short on the break of the 5-day low as it would mark a 'fake out' of the bullish thesis (stops coming in above the 5-day high in this case). The S&P shows the bullish flag which 'should' break higher.  Technicals are bullish (with the exception of On-Balance-Volume, although this is likely to turn bullish on the next up day). Notice how the breakout gap in the Nasdaq hasn't been violated; another bullish sign.  The only ugly is down trending On-Balance-Volume. While the Russell 2000 is pressuring its high even within the tight consolidation.  Look for this index to lead out the others. For Thursday, keep an eye on the Russ

Daily Market Commentary: Consolidation Continues

Image
A further day of selling offered relatively small losses for key indices.  Markets were able to make back some of the ground lost in morning trading, reflecting continued interest on the part of buyers (even on a down day).  The Russell 2000 remained the most resilient to the selling, shedding just over 0.10%.  Its breakout remains intact with all supporting technicals in the green.  It's the index of choice for longs. On the other side of the coin was the semiconductor index. Here, there was concerted action on the part of sellers to take the index back to support.  Although, there was a fresh 'Golden Cross' between 20-day and 200-day MAs.  Today's close does offer an aggressive long, with an alternative entry level at the fast rising 20-day MA. The damage in the semiconductor index was reflected in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.  The Nasdaq 100 also generated a 'Golden Cross' between 20-day and 200-day MAs and is sitting at a support level.  Again, it of

Daily Market Commentary: Consolidation

Image
Friday's gains were offset by Monday's low volume decline. The damage was relatively limited, although markets remain primed for further weakness. The S&P is well above declining resistance, turned support, although On-Balance-Volume again switched to a 'sell' trigger. The Nasdaq is still protecting the large breakout gap.  Although it's struggling a little to reverse the downward trend for On-Balance-Volume. While the Russell 2000 traded in a very narrow intraday range.  This is looking very bullish. For Tuesday, watch for further consolidation.  Beware of a big sell off in the first hour, because this could instill fear in the market, and lead to a bigger push into the breakout gaps. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also vi

Archive

Show more