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Showing posts from September, 2013

Daily Market Commentary: Bears Smash-and-Grab

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It wasn't pretty - bears played all their cards at market open - but bulls clawed things back (somewhat). The Russell 2000, as the most bullish index, managed to reclaim most of the opening gap loss. The Russell 2000 successfully tested breakout support at 1,059 with the 20-day MA fast approaching to offer additional support. Technicals are okay too, despite weakness in price. Tomorrow is another chance for bulls, but buyers won't tolerate too many days like today.  Stop placement remains on a loss of 1,059.

Daily Market Commentary: Thursday's gains undone

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Bulls remain in good shape despite Friday's losses. The S&P exhibited a narrow loss, but with the 20-day MA just a few points below there is a good chance we will see a test on Monday. There was a new MACD trigger 'sell' to go with the On-Balance-Volume 'sell' of last week.

Best Biotechnology & HealthCare Stocks: $GSK, $THRX, $NVS, $AZN

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This weeks stocks covered the asthma and COPD market.  My fundamental commentary is available on the Motley Fool , my technical view on these stocks is here: The stock with the greatest potential to benefit is Theravance ($THRX). The stock is shaping up with a very good base, with excellent consolidation volume following the buying spikes in April and May. The measured move target from the base is $51, but a broader measured move target projected from the April-May rally is up to $62. Technicals are all bullish - be prepared for a volume break of $42 (3 million+ shares) - stops on a loss of $40 with 20-day MA offering a little more room on the downside.

Daily Market Commentary: Buyers Make an Appearance

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It was a modest defense, but buyers stepped in to break the decline. Short term traders can play long positions with a stop on a break of this week's low. The S&P can alternatively use the 20-day MA as an alternative support. Today confirmed a 'Golden Cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs.

Daily Market Commentary: Day Four of Losses

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For yet another day there was little change in the overall market picture. The Dow did get down to (and below) its 50-day MA, and is fast heading to the 20-day MA. Trading volume was light, suggesting sellers are tiring.

Daily Market Commentary: Roller Coaster Ride

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Markets went up, they went down, but mostly there was little change. Only Large Caps came out with a downside edge: the Dow will probably see a test of the 50-day MA today, while the S&P works towards a new 'Golden Cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs, which should offer support if the selling continues. The S&P did register another distribution day, although this hasn't yet led to a 'sell' trigger for On-Balance-Volume.

Daily Market Commentary: Day Three of Declines

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The Dow has fallen sharply over the same period, enough to leave it just a few points above its 50-day MA; tomorrow may see this key moving average tested. The Nasdaq 100 has been a leading average, although for September it lost ground against the Russell 2000. However, today's losses were light, and for the last three days has performed strongly despite the weakness. Any sniff of buying in the markets will quickly result in new all-time highs for this index (which will fuel further buying). Interesting situation for the Semiconductor index. It's sitting at a converged level of support; a low risk play for Tuesday with a 'Golden Cross' to boot. A number of long side opportunities for Tuesday.  May want to run relatively tight stops just because one can; 50-day / 20-day MAs can be used for stops on longer term positions. --- All Contributions Welcome - Thank You! Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community

Best Biotechnology Stocks: $ALXN, $MRK, $AMGN, $EBS

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A backlog of stocks to cover, links offer redirects to fundamental analysis I've done at the Motley Fool; starting with Alexion Pharmaceuticals ($ALXN) .  July's breakout was substantial, and subsequent trading validated the surge with the defense of $105.  Prepare for follow through on a push above $117.30. It may be possible to run a stop as close of $112.50 when the break happens.

Best Materials Stocks: $DOW, $POT, $ARG

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An earlier  Motley Fool article covered three materials stocks: Dow Chemical, Potash Corp and Airgas. The most interesting is perhaps Airgas. The stock bullied past $100 in July after a failed attempt in May. The 50-day MA has offered itself as support, which was used in August.  Technicals are net bullish.

Daily Market Commentary: Resistance Holds

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After Thursday's stall at channel resistance, sellers returned with volume to push indices away from resistance and back towards 50-day (20-day) MA support. Selling volume was significant, but the broader trend is bullish and Friday's action didn't change this. Just as the Dow had a picture perfect bounce off channel support, the S&P had a picture perfect bounce off channel resistance.  Plenty of support below, but the index could spend another few days heading lower.

Stock Breakout: Stalls At Resistance

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No surprise to see the indices stall out at channel resistance. Narrow day range allows for a swing trade on break of day's high/lows. Volume was down, which is inline with a consolidation. Little more to add on the day. Keep an eye on the S&P, it has underperformed relative to the Russell 2000 for a number of months, but it's finding its groove which should see an upside break of channel resistance.

Daily Market Commentary: Powerful Rally Takes Indices to Resistance

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After a series of low volume gains, bulls returned in force on heavy volume.  Technicals were already pointing towards a further advance but today took those indices all the way to channel resistance. The S&P finished right on channel resistance. It's a good place to take some profits, although best for bulls would be for the rally to nickle-and-dime higher along channel resistance.

Daily Market Commentary: More of the Same

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In an extension of yesterday's action, markets rose on low volume to keep the rally off August swing lows intact. It was a slightly better day for technology indices as they managed to finish above the prior close, building on recent breakouts. The Nasdaq has eased in its relative performance against the S&P, but the breakout dominates.

Daily Market Commentary: Low Volume Gains

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Friday had set things up for a positive Monday, and Monday began with a bright start on a strong opening gap, but bulls were unable to build off the open. However, the selling was light and so the overall bullish picture is intact. The S&P was able to close with a net gain. Technicals are not overbought, which keeps things positive for Tuesday.

Weekly Market Commentary: Primed for Advance

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A solid close to the week left markets well positioned for further advance on Monday. The S&P finished Friday with an inside day (to an inside day), with a close knocking on the door of 1,690.

Daily Market Commentary: Small Losses

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Not surprising to see markets ease lower on light volume. It's a buyers pullback, although there is room for further weakness tomorrow without bursting the bubble. The S&P has the 50-day MA to lend a hand as support.

Daily Market Commentary: Gains Hold

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In positive action, markets were able to hold on to the gains from yesterday and in some cases add to them. The S&P enjoyed a day of confirmed accumulation, pushing the indices away from 20-day and 50-day MAs and keeping them on a path to channel resistance. The S&P is running a rally similar to the one experienced in June, and so far there is little reason to suggest it can't emulate its gains.

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Lead Advance

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While the buying volume was not spectacular, there was enough action from bulls to see the basis of a rally build. For the S&P this meant a net bullish turn in technicals.

Daily Market Commentary: Nasdaq Breakout

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A double confirmation for bulls: a negation of the August 'bull trap' with today's breakout and a failed measured move target lower. Technicals are all bullish, although the ADX is below 20, indicating a trendless environment. However, I suspect today's breakout will change this.

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Defend Lows Despite Rumors

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A scary start for the markets on Friday was quickly reversed, but buyers were prepared to defend the lows of late August/September which is good news for those looking for further upside. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, although there are still resistance levels to overcome. The S&P closed just above its 20-day MA, but below its 50-day MA. Buyers were able to take the market all the way to its 50-day MA - but not beyond.

Daily Market Commentary: Low Volume Gain

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Indices which started the day just below moving average resistance, finished the day still stuck under such resistance, despite the minor gains posted. Only the Nasdaq came into the day without such resistance to worry about and it was able to put some to its 20-day MA.

Daily Market Commentary: Attempting a Swing Low

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The setup had looked bearish coming into today, but the strong buying over the course of the day has the makings of a tradable swing low.  Certainly, recent lows can be used as a break line for long-side stops. The S&P shaped a 'Death Cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs, although On-Balance-Volume is on a 'buy' signal. Watch for selling when the 20-day MA is hit.

Daily Market Commentary: Early Gains Rebuffed

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A promising start gave way to selling, but at least the lows of last week held.  Large Caps suffered the worst of the action and the Dow is doing its best to break support, despite the higher volume accumulation.  The 200-day MA is looking a natural downside target for the Dow.

Best Biotechnology Stocks: Alkermes ($ALKS)

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My fundamental view on Alkermes is currently available on the Motley Fool . The stock spent most of 2011 and 2012 contained by $20 resistance as the S&P posted new swing highs, it was only in the latter part of 2012 that Alkermes was able to hold a break of $20. Since meeting the measured move target of $26.50 the stock has followed with a new consolidation phase.

Weekly Market Commentary: Small Caps Feel The Heat

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Thursday's gains belonged to the Russell 2000, but all of that was undone by Friday's selling. The Russell 2000 is approaching channel support and is likely to see a test on Monday. Stochastics are not yet oversold.

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