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Showing posts from November, 2009

Stock Market Commentary: Markets Hold Their Ground

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There was a chance with the return of traders that Friday's recovery would have been erased, instead buyers stepped in to protect the gains achieved following Friday's gap down. The Nasdaq closed above its 50-day MA on higher volume accumulation. The Dow held its breakout for another day but also finished with a MACD trigger 'sell'. Although the 'sell' was countered by an accumulation day. The Russell 2000 did well to recover its early day losses, but it still finished the day below its 20-day MA albeit on a bullish hammer (however - stochastics are not oversold so the candlestick as a reversal line is weak). The S&P hasn't quite had the same strength as the Dow; a MACD 'sell' and a confirmed loss of the breakout is softened by support at the 20-day MA on an accumulation day. Tuesday looks set to close a little more of Friday's breakdown gap, but then the challenge for bulls begins. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com .

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

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The shortened week was not short on action. What changed for the markets? Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave.com still hasn't marked in the wave 5 top - but I suspect this trend phase has completed - as has perhaps the 'abc' correction which follows. Critical time for the S&P with 1,085 a key battleground for bulls to defend. Richard Lehman of TrendChannelMagic has a more optimistic view on things, although optimism is been neutral rather than bullish. 11/28 -- Surveying Friday's low-volume sell-off, the bears may not necessarily get the ammunition they've been looking for to go whole-hog on the short side. Oil (the commodity itself) sloped downward at an accelerated rate, but XLE remained in its existing downchannel. Financials look the weakest among sectors, but the broad indexes, including the usually fragile small caps, all held pretty much in their existing trend channels, many of which were, and still are, no worse than sideways. That's far le

Weekend Market Commentary: Fun Next Week!

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The Dubai effect won't really be known until Traders come back from their vacation. Friday's action set the tone given it bucked the traditional positive 'Black Friday'; although the gap and rally will have felt the same to some. On a weekly basis there was very little change. The only index to experience a change was the MACD trigger 'sell' in the Nasdaq 100 Breadth indicators still point towards a considerable correction ahead. The Nasdaq Bullish Percents have broken technical support and are a long way from reaction low support. The Summation Index is stuck half-way between highs and lows, but is trending lower. Even the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA is no longer oversold. Roll on next week... Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com . November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade and is on course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and a new rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard . Z

Happy Thanksgiving!

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A non-entity of a trading day; a tight range supported by a Turkey in the oven. Friday's shortened session is likely to be higher given this tends to be the historic trend, but don't read too much into it no matter which way it spins. Penny stock traders tend to have fun on days like these. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com . November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade and is on course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and a new rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard . Zignals now has new fundamental stock alerts , stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt and soon Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager , active fundamental system stock screener and trading system builder. New Forex and Index data.

Build a Zignals Trading Strategy

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I have posted two articles on the Zignals blog about creating a mechanical Trading Strategy with the Zignals Trading System builder. Over time I will be increasing the archive pool of material on this, but hare are the two articles for starters: Creating a Trading Strategy in Zignals Trading Strategy Risk Management If you would like advice or further information on building strategies (which will be eventually sold in our MarketPlace with a revenue share), please don't hesitate to contact me at declan-at-zignals.com As for the market, there was little change as yesterday's gaps were closed. Markets recovered to close near yesterday's levels but there was no significant technical change. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com . November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade and is on course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and a new rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard . Zignals now has new fundamental

Stock Markert Commentary: Gap and Stall but Large Caps do Better

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A strong open failed to re-ignite the old breakouts for Tech markets and volume wasn't exactly jumping off the scale. Large Caps closed at new highs and even managed to register a minor accumulation day. Of the two tech indices, the Nasdaq 100 did better with a push above breakout support from last week - but the bearish divergence in the MACD has contained the rally. Volume was lacking and the odds favour a test of 20-day/50-day MAs at minimum with rising channel support not far away. More worryingly for bulls, the Russell 2000 finished below its 50-day MA after spending part of the day above it. While semi-conductors didn't get close to its 50-day MA and finished closer to its 20-day MA. Not good. But while there is still buying interest in Large Caps the rally remains in intact - if very (very) long in the tooth. In any respect, can't see Thanksgiving week delivering much on either side of the equation. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com . Novembe

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

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The shortened holiday week is unlikely to see significant change in the market (or at least one which would hold after the holiday), but after the events of last week - where do markets lie? Anthony Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave has marked a completion of the 5-wave up phase on the 60-min S&P from the start of November and has kicked in the start of the next 'abc' down. But it doesn't look like this is the major 'B' top of the 'ABC' correction (the one which - according to EWTs - will have bulls quaking in their boots when the 'C' leg begins). Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has practically all short-term conditions set at neutral with a mixed-bag on the intermediate time frame. A recipe for sideways action? Use Stochastics over MACD??? The break of the bearish wedge is playing to form; key test to follow at the 20-day and 50-day MAs. How about the suggested head-and-shoulder reversal in the 30-min SPY? Confirmed 'sell' in daily chart:

Weekly Market Commentary: Toiling at Resistance

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A weak close to the week left markets lingering around resistance, but close enough to keep things interesting for bulls. Supporting technicals have been on a downward turn since April, but these haven't broken any market yet. The Nasdaq shows weekly resistance and the challenge ahead for bulls; but no break yet. Contrary to the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100 actually managed a weak technical 'buy' in its MACD. However, it does have the benefit of a resistance break. This may be the ticket to help the Nasdaq work higher. But the leading index, Russell 2000, finished on a bearish 'gravestone doji' at the low of the weekly range - not good for bulls. A break of weekly lows would be a reason to short (on a long term timescale) with a stop on a move above 605. Weekly breadth has long since sided with bears; but the hardest hit Percentage of stocks above their 50-day MA has recovered enough to leave it in neutral territory; not good news for bulls given the selling pressure from

Stock Market Commentary: Battle Lines Shift

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It was day when Tech breakouts failed as Large Caps clung on. Relative strength shifted away from speculative small caps and tech to 'safer' large caps. For the Nasdaq, the loss of the breakout shifted interest to the 20-day and/or 50-day MAs. Higher volume combined with heavier volume marked today as a firm distribution day. The Nasdaq 100 probably did enough to hold its breakout - but the action in its sister Nasdaq suggests lower prices are to be expected. The Russell 2000 took it hard with a 2%+ loss which cut through its 50-day MA and took it down to its 20-day MA. The 20-day MA held but for how long is another matter. Today's extensive selling for the index also points towards lower prices in the days ahead. The market is on warning but the rally in tech and large caps is intact and well inside rising channel boundaries. The exception to this are small caps and the semiconductor index which are still looking for a new definition of trend, albeit with a bullish bias.

Stock Market Commentary: Breakouts Hold

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Magnificent match between Ireland and France for World Cup final, not over yet though... Markets held their breakouts with some heavier volume at support (although the mild selling is registering as 'distribution'). You could pick and choose your indices on this; Nasdaq and S&P are good examples of the breakout support Also good news were held breaks of 20-day and 50-day MAs for the Russell 2000 and Semiconductor index. Aggressive traders could look to play a break of 3-day highs with a stop on loss of 2-day lows. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com . November 2009 has seen a significant upgrade and is on course to becoming the eBay of finance with our new Beta MarketPlace and a new rich internet application for finance, the Zignals Dashboard . Zignals now has new fundamental stock alerts , stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt and soon Canadian stocks, tabbed stock list watchlists, multi-currency portfolio manager , active fundamental syst

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