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Showing posts from June, 2011

Daily Market Commentary: Rallies to Resistance

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For a fourth day in a row markets posted gains. This took lead indices to resistance, although the Dow bucked the trend by smashing through. I haven't focused on the Dow as it hasn't done anything unique, but today the Dow broke declining resistance connecting reaction highs for April. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, supporting the validity of the break. ($INDU) via StockCharts.com The S&P wasn't able to achieve the same success, finishing the day at declining resistance. Volume was also lighter, although it was able to close above its 50-day MA. It might be a tall ask to see a fifth day of gains, but with the Dow comfortably ahead it's not outside expectation (although unlikely). ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq was interesting. Like the S&P it finished at resistance, but unlike the S&P and the Dow, technicals turned net bullish. So while price action underperformed that of the Dow, technically it's better positioned for

Daily Market Commentary: Higher Volume Gain

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There was a modest follow through to two days worth of gains. Volume picked up, but it was well below recent selling volume. With a three day winning sequence ("three white soldiers") in the bag, now may be time for bears to apply some pressure and test how resilient buying has been. The S&P followed MACD and On-balance-volume 'buy' signals with one between +DI/-DI. The 50-day MA lies less than 1% away, so there is a logical supply area to restrict further gains. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq didn't get as big a kick on the volume buying. It finished with a doji on resistance (with additional resistance at the 50-day MA), but enjoyed two 'buy' triggers for on-balance-volume and +DI/-DI. The doji has the look of a bearish "shooting star", so watch for a gap down and selling to follow. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Russell 2000 also closed with a doji, smack bang on its 50-day MA. There was also a bullish cross between +DI/

Daily Market Commentary: Tech and Small Caps Breakout

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While the S&P managed to nick a breakout it was the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 which enjoyed the best of Tuesday's trading. Unfortunately, buying volume was insipid and the number of breakout stocks was very disappointing . So while price action was positive, there was little substance to back it. Going forward bulls will be looking for some narrow trading around Tuesday's highs, preferably on lower volume. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq's gains, while also on low volume, are close to triggering a 'buy' in on-balance-volume. The 50-day MA is the next upside target at 2,762. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com It was a similar picture for the Russell 2000, putting it well on its way to test channel resistance. The 50-day MA is currently at 821, or just 4 points away. AAAAAAAAD Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) via StockCharts.com On a final point, the percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA confirmed a bear trap. The next rally in the Nasdaq

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish Recovery

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The wild daily swings in the market continued as bulls made their stand following Friday's selloff. Monday's buying helped maintain March swing lows for the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and S&P. The S&P opened a few points above its 200-day MA and was able to rally back to its 20-day MA before sellers emerged late afternoon. The index is well poised to make further gains tomorrow. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq made stronger inroads on Friday's selling and was able to finish above Friday's open price; the Nasdaq may be the index for bulls tomorrow. The 50-day MA at 2,763 is the next upside target. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq Bullish Percents strengthened the swing low with a MACD 'buy' signal to follow the earlier CCI 'buy'. Improved technical strength was in combination with a crossover in the 3-day x 5-day EMA. Another factor favoring further highs for the Nasdaq tomorrow. Nasdaq Composite Bullish Percent Index (EOD) ($BPCO

Weekly Market Commentary: Channel Support Holds

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Friday's selling - selling which took the indices into Thursday's lows - typically follows with another day of selling, but the weekly picture still offers reason for optimism. The Nasdaq is nearest to weekly channel support and is the index to watch for how channels will play as support for other indices. Nasdaq via StockCharts.com The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA made gains on the week, but at 29% it's still oversold and stochastics are at a swing low; this is positive for a rally in the Nasdaq. Nasdaq Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average ($NAA50R) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq Summation Index is in bounce territory too - although well off the depths of despair from the 2008 bottom. But like the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above 50-day MA, stochastics are at a swing low where a bounce can emerge in the Nasdaq itself. Nasdaq Summation Index (Ratio Adjusted) ($NASI) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq 100 is sticking to its 2007 reactio

Daily Market Commentary: 200-day MA Tests Came Sooner Than Expected

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In a volatile day, the S&P and Nasdaq both paid visits to their 200-day MAs only to finish the day near yesterday's close. Volume climbed to register a distribution day for the S&P and an accumulation one for the Nasdaq. The S&P spike low finished right at the 200-day MA. A late afternoon rally helped recover the bulk of the losses. This sets up an interesting scenario for tomorrow morning. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq was able to go a step further than the S&P. It finished the day 'engulfing' the real body of yesterday's candlestick and with a higher close. This leaves the index set for a challenge of its 20-day MA. Helping the Nasdaq was the stronger than expected gain in the semiconductor index. Thursday saw a close in the semiconductor index above what was achieved by key indices. This helps offset the huge slide experienced by this index. Finally, the Russell 2000 spiked all the way down to former pennant support (but didn'

Daily Market Commentary: Late Selling Disappoints

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Up until Bernanke opened his mouth the market was having a generally positive day. Despite the late sell off, markets were able to retain the bulk of yesterday's gains and sold off on modest (i.e. lighter) volume. The concern for tomorrow is whether the afternoon sell off follows through tomorrow morning. The S&P is well positioned to push higher, assuming it can stay close to 1,290. However, additional selling that undercut Tuesday's low would favor a new test of the 200-day MA - and likely worse. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq held a former important support level at 2,670 and is close to a MACD trigger 'buy'. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com While the Russell 2000 was pegged by 810 resistance, it was able to retain 20-day MA support. ($RUT) via StockCharts.com The first 30 minutes of Thursday's trading will likely set the tone for the entire day. Any sell off will have to be quickly recovered as bulls don't have much room to work with; al

Daily Market Commentary: Low Volume Gain

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Plenty of points put on the board, but no real volume given the gain. On a positive note, the volume registered was above yesterday's, ranking the day as an "accumulation" day. The S&P had the lowest relative volume gain. The index closed above the April swing low at 1,294 (just) which may potentially signal a bear trap. If the latter is to prove true then it will be important the index can hold - and close - above 1,290. This will offer a platform to push higher. Today saw a MACD trigger 'buy' to follow that in on-balance-volume. ($SPX) via StockCharts.com The Nasdaq enjoyed more buying volume but is technically weaker. Tuesday's gain was enough to see the Nasdaq regain 200-day MA support. ($COMPQ) via StockCharts.com Working in the Nasdaq's favour is the bear trap in the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA. This swing was built off an oversold market condition and is helped by CCI and MACD 'buy' triggers. There might be

Daily Market Commentary: Low Volume Gain

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Given the woes in Greece (and the Eurozone at large) it was a relatively nondescript day for US indices. There were low volume gains across lead indices, but nothing to change the current downward trend. The S&P trades within last week's volatility so not enough to push it one way or the other. There was a 'buy' trigger in on-balance-volume. However, it will soon be influenced by a squeeze between 20-day and 200-day MA which will force bull/bear hands. The Nasdaq is hanging on to 2,616 support but remains under its 200-day MA. Technicals are all bearish. The Russell 2000 is building a swing trade at support. Prices are coiling into a pennant which typically breaks in the direction of the trend (which should be down). But support may be sufficient to see an upside break. The CCI has moved to a 'buy' trigger. Finally, the semiconductor got a brief respite from the selling, but it was nothing more than a respite. Remains on course to test channel suppor

Weekly Market Commentary: Support in Play

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With the dailies toying with March reaction lows, there is more support on offer from weekly timeframes. The Nasdaq is bang on channel support from the March 2009 low. Technicals are in neutral territory but price is king. Even if this failed there is 2,535 support to look too. The Nasdaq 100 hasn't quite made it back to channel support, but does reside at horizontal support from the 2007 high. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA is in (value) bounce territory at 21%. As the Nasdaq Summation Index also enters 'value' buy territory. The Russell 2000 has weekly support at 760; this looks better on the daily timeframe but all angles should be considered. While the S&P 500 is trading at channel support anchored by March reaction low. So there is reason for optimism on the weekly and daily timeframes. Should these support levels break it will push markets below the 7-month consolidation and leave anyone who bought stocks over this period h

Daily Market Commentary: Techs Struggle

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Markets diverged with Tech indices falling while Large and Small Caps dug in at support. The S&P tested its 200-day MA at the low of the day with a neutral 'spinning top'. Volume was lighter, so there wasn't the same level of conviction on the part of buyers at the 200-day MA as there was with selling activity yesterday. The Dow still has a long way to go to get to its 200-day MA. If the selling continues in other indices bulls will only be left with the Dow at its 200-day MA! The Russell 2000 continued to play with converged support of January lows, 200-day MA and the lower channel line. Of the current indices it probably offers the best risk:reward because of the multiple support levels available. However, the semiconductor index is heading further away from its 200-day MA and is a long way from the March swing low. It's on a path towards the lower channel line and has a long way to go. Selling in semiconductors is pressuring the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100

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