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Showing posts from May, 2021

Relief rallies now at a crawl, but Russell 2000 net bullish

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The bounce is struggling to attract buyers with Friday's close registering as a small gain with low volume.   In the case of the Nasdaq, the measured move lower would deliver a tag of the 200-day MA, making it an attractive forecast. Technicals are mixed with 'buys' for the MACD and Stochastics, offset by relative performance shifting back in favor of Small Caps. 

Rally off May swing low slows

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The initial enthusiasm for the bounce from May lows is slowing as the intraday range tightens across indices.  The Nasdaq is trading above key moving averages with a MACD trigger 'buy' and a fresh 'buy' trigger in stochastics. However, the Nasdaq is in a trading range and until this breaks, any action within the bounds of support and resistance is just noise. 

Market gains take the edge off Friday's losses

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The gains were good to see, but all they did was extend the bounce off the March swing lows. We still need to see if there is going to be a positive test of the May swing low.  For the Nasdaq, today's gains managed to finish above both its 20-day and 50-day MA. Volume was light but gain did come with a MACD trigger 'buy'.  Not to mention, the index continues to outperform the Russell 2000.  The other side of today's action, is that each gain focuses the measured move lower on to the 200-day MA.  Convergence increases the possibility of it happening. 

Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and S&P run into moving average resistance

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The mid-week bounce ran into trouble by Friday's close as the Russell 2000, Nasdaq and S&P ran into their 20-day MAs, leaving behind bearish candlesticks in the process.  The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 also tagged their 50-day MA.  It could be a long week ahead for the indices. The Russell 2000 is still range bound, but I don't like to see 'black' candlesticks, particularly when near resistance, but real selling pressure doesn't kick in until $210 ($IWM) is lost. Technicals edge bearish with ADX and MACD firmly on the bearish side of the ledger, but On-Balance-Volume is zig-zagging and stochastics is caught at the mid-line. 

Nasdaq rallies as Russell 2000 remains flat

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All indices posted gains but it was the Nasdaq and S&P which did most of the leg work.  The gain in the Russell 2000 was able to close yesterday's breakdown gap, but not much more.  The gain in the Nasdaq was enough to consider the makings of a new rally off a swing low established last week, but there is a convergence of 20-day nd 50-day MAs to get past first.

Relief Rally fades across indices

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Markets lost ground, with the S&P reversing off trend resistance and the Russell 2000 doing a tag repel from converged 20-day and 50-day MAs.  Selling volume only ranked as distribution for the Russell 2000, but was not particularly heavy.  The S&P marked a picture perfect reversal with bearish technicals for the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and ADX. Bulls will look to the 50-day MA, an area of past support in March and more recently in May, but each repeated tag of this support level increases the opportunity for it breaking. 

Friday's recovery sets the groundwork for a swing low

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Friday marked the beginning of potential swing lows for the indices, although it will take more than one positive day to confirm such lows.  The Nasdaq is bearish across all supporting technicals including relative performance against the Russell 2000. The next test for this rally is the 50-day MA and converged trend support and 20-day MA. 

Weak Recovery Doesn't Offset Wednesday's Losses

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The selling we have seen had much in common with that of February's, and because of that, what we are looking at is the development of trading ranges which will maintain a neutral outlook until there is a breach of March swing lows.  The Nasdaq is perhaps the most vulnerable given prior strength, but it has started to underperform relative to the Russell 2000 as momentum moves into bearish territory but is not yet oversold. 

Indices suffer sizable downward opening gaps before rallying

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Yesterday was the warning shot, today was the follow through, but there was still sufficient latent demand to at least take indices near to where they finished yesterday.  While at one level we have breakdowns, if we take a step back we are looking at a return to trading ranges.  Tests of the 200-day MA are next on the list of major to-dos but it will take time to get there. 

Weak bounce for Nasdaq; S&P Breakout

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I wanted to see more from the Nasdaq support test but Friday's doji came in with a neutral 'spinning top' -  not the ideal candlestick you want to see off a successful support test. Technicals are mostly negative with a relative underperformance to the Russell 2000.  When you look the big picture, the current action in the Nasdaq lllo

Nasdaq holds rising trendline

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There was a big up in trading volume and today's action ranked as distribution, but for the Nasdaq it was not enough to deliver a loss of trendline support or its 50-day MA.  However, technicals are growing bearish with 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and ADX - not to mention, a relative loss against the Russell 2000. 

Losses continue for Nasdaq

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The Nasdaq lost more ground to move further away from its 'bull trap' as sell triggers emerged in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume.  Relative performance returned to a loss against the Russell 2000 ($IWM) but this isn't a huge concern yet.  While the index did close below its 20-day MA it hasn't yet tested March breakout support. 

Nasdaq reverses breakout

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After edging a breakout last week in a move which suggested a new rally was about to begin, instead, the breakout stalled out and came back to its 20-day MA. The reversal came with a MACD trigger 'sell', although relative performance against the Russell 2000 actually gained - suggesting this is just pause in a larger move higher, but for this to be true I think it's important for the 20-day MA to hold.

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