Showing posts from March, 2011

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Advance

Today belonged to the Russell 2000. The leading index cracked above the 2011 high, offering new longside opportunities. Technicals continue to rise, although it will be a few days before the bearish divergence in the MACD is challenged. ($RUT) via Large Caps had their time in the sun too. The S&P saw its technicals turn net bullish on higher volume accumulation. ($SPX) via While the Dow finished shy of a push to a new 2011 high. ($INDU) via The Nasdaq or Nasdaq 100 have yet to enjoy the same strength as the aforementioned indices. Both remain technically net bearish. ($COMPQ) via So it looks to be up to the Russell 2000 to drive this rally higher. Tech has been a disappointment, but is at least heading in the right direction. Defensive large caps have an opportunity tomorrow to break 2011 resistance, although overall volume has been disappointing (despite being higher). Bulls in control. Follow Me on

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish Engulfing Patterns

Markets opened weak but were able to make back lost ground and then some. The S&P confirmed a breakout from the downward channel on heavier volume (but light volume compared to what's gone before). ($SPX) via The Nasdaq offered a sizable bullish engulfing pattern, without the higher volume accumulation, but with enough juice to outperform the S&P (on a relative basis). ($COMPQ) via Nasdaq Breadth continued to improve with a MACD trigger 'buy' and a rise in stochastics from oversold conditions. ($BPCOMPQ) via While the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA shifted technicals net bullish after stochastics crossed the bullish mid-line. ($NAA50R) via Small Caps also cracked out a bullish engulfing pattern as it hugged former support higher. Since early February Small Caps have been outperforming Tech, and Large Caps since mid-May. As the leading index it should be favoured by buyer

Daily Market Commentary: Mixed Bag

Another mixed for the markets; one offers promise going forward - others sit at important junctions. The S&P spent a second day at channel resistance. The small 'hanging man' reflects uncertainty, but the lack of volume suggests there was no concerted selling - simply a lack of buyers willing to drive a break. Technicals, while weak, continue to support the long side. ($SPX) via Friday saw a low volume breakout but with a gravestone doji. This was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern. The Nasdaq breakout is still intact - although under pressure and more likely to see losses tomorrow. Should this prove true, a bull trap will result. ($COMPQ) via The Nasdaq 100 also closed with a bearish engulfing pattern at its 50-day MA. The past two day reversal has the makings of a reaction top and the start of a downward channel. The key aspect in the Nasdaq 100's defense is its strength on the weekly timeframe . ($NDX) via StockCharts.

Weekly Market Commentary: No Change

Markets maintained their weekly form despite the recovery on dailies. The Nasdaq still has to contend with the bull trap from 2,818. Last week's buying - while welcome - didn't registration as an accumulation week. Nasdaq via However, the Nasdaq 100 was able to defend 2,217 (2007 highs). But like the Nasdaq buying volume was light. ($NDX) via While the Russell 2000 rallied off its bull flag backtest and is best poised to move to new highs. ($RUT) via The S&P pulled itself back over 1,300, but the rally has sliced the channel down the middle - no advantage to bulls or bears. ($SPX) via So for next week looks to Small Caps to lead out with the Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq following suit. The latter should negate its bull trap. Large Caps should be able to tag along for the ride, but look to them to lag the more speculative issues. If the Russell 2000 struggles then it's going to be hard road ahead fo

Financial Writer

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Stock Trader & Featured Commentator

Apply for Job We are seeking an experienced stock trader and commentator to join our team at Zacks Investment Research in Chicago, IL. The goal is for this person to be a new featured trading expert on our thriving investment website, . Job Description * Write articles and record videos that provide insight into profitably stock trades. * Editor of a stock trading subscription service/newsletter. Make buy, hold, sell decisions for the portfolio and provide rationale behind the moves. * Be interviewed by investment media outlets in print and video formats. * Make public speaking appearances on behalf of the firm at seminars and industry conventions. About Zacks Investment Research Our firm was founded in 1978 and is now is one of the most highly regarded companies in the investment industry. We are best known for the Zacks Rank stock picking system which has generated a +28% annual return since 1988. We have several business units aimed at serv

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Break Channel

Bulls were able to continue with yesterday's buying. Volume was lighter so there was a degree of uncertainty to accompany the buying. Small Caps pushed through its channel with a MACD trigger 'buy', but it has to break February highs before confidence can start to flow again. ($RUT) via The Dow is in a battle between a minor channel breakout and resistance as defined by former support of the prior up trend. The good news for bulls is that it's the first index to turn net bullish technically. ($INDU) via The Nasdaq 100 gapped powerfully higher - leaving behind a bullish island reversal. It has finished a shade below its 50-day MA which may curb buyer enthusiasm Friday. ($NDX) via The semiconductor index also gapped to leave an island reversal. It has room to maneuver to its 50-day MA, with the 20-day MA current resistance. Looks good for a few more days of gains. ($SOX) via How semiconduct

Daily Market Commentary: Good Recovery from Morning Losses

In what started as a gap down sell off quickly reversed into a powerful rally. Volume rose across indices to register an accumulation day. The S&P finished just below its 20-day and 50-day MAs, so resistance at moving averages is still an issue, but the nature of today's buying suggests an upside break tomorrow. ($SPX) via The Dow went a step further and cracked above 20-day and 50-day MAs. This is good news for bulls looking for likewise from the S&P. ($INDU) via The Nasdaq closed with a bullish engulfing pattern as it defended 2,670 for a third day. ($SPX) via While the Russell 2000 defended the 50-day MA at Wednesday's low while pressuring channel resistance by the close. Watch for a channel breakout tomorrow (it's not going to take much). ($RUT) via However, lingering resistance remained in the Nasdaq 100 as dictated by the breakdown gap. ($NDX) via With a break

Daily Market Commentary: S&P Hits Resistance at Converged 20-day and 50-day MAs

Minor losses helped markets hold the bulk of yesterday's gains. Light volume also kept selling intensity low. The S&P stalled at converged 20-day and 50-day MA resistance. Aggressive shorts might play this, but there is still room to run to declining resistance so it's not a clear cut opportunity. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq is neither near channel or moving average resistance; room for more gains? ($COMPQ) via Meanwhile the Russell 2000 touched channel resistance but the 20-day MA has held as support. It would have played well as a straight channel support to resistance trade. Can it now play to the downside; resistance to support? A break of resistance would turn it into a long trade. ($RUT) via Today's narrow trading offers a couple of short term opportunities. Stops can be set relatively tight; swing trade break of Tuesday's high/lows with a stop on the flip side. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon

Daily Market Commentary: Bear Traps

While buying volume wasn't great there was evidence bulls have more than a foothold to work with. In the case of the S&P there was a bear trap to the former channel. The only downside was the close just below converged 20-day and 50-day MAs which may offer resistance tomorrow (or at least peak the interest of shorts at 1,304). On-balance-volume triggered a 'buy' signal. ($SPX) via The bear trap also extended for the Nasdaq. But it has gone a step further with the 'Death Cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs; watch the 20-day MA for upcoming resistance. ($COMPQ) via The Russell 2000 rewarded bulls by powering through both 20-day and 50-day MAs with consummate ease. It finished just shy of channel resistance, but moving average breaks are good news for the S&P and Nasdaq. Buyers of channel support have been nicely rewarded. The CCI 'buy' is a nice bonus ($RUT) via The Nasdaq 100 has been a st

Stockcharters Review - It's been a while!

I hadn't realised how long ago I last did this... Hardly "Weekly"! At the moment the sort feature isn't working at, so I'll just take the ranking as it comes. First up is Richard Lehman of . His current Dow chart shows an upside channel break on the 60-minute timeframe, so maybe there is more to this bounce than meets the eye. 3/16 -- Selling intensified with global uncertainties, bringing several indexes to their long term support lines. The Dow, SPX and XLF all came to, or very close to, their long term uptrend lines. That is actually a good thing from the perspective of setting up a buy signal. VIX futures are at 3-4 points discount, suggesting that the market is quite oversold now and may be preparing to bounce. I'd remain bullish, until any major index actually breaks the long term uptrend line, as that will be a whole new ball game. 3/10 -- After failing for two days to break the purple downtrend line to the up

Weekly Market Commentary: Second Week of Significant Selling

Selling intensified for a second week as the crisis in Japan expanded. The Nasdaq bull trap is ominous. Bulls have their work cut out to regain the breakout. Channel support - lurking near additional 2,535 support - is looking the most likely test of this decline. Nasdaq via The Nasdaq 100 had more room to play with it for the breakout, but now is down at support after giving up the buffer it had. ($NDX) via There was a Confirmed 'Sell' in the Nasdaq Bullish Percents. Action for the second half of 2010 had much in common with the first half of 2008. Will this relationship continue as the decline matures? The big difference between the two periods is the relative position of weakness in 2008 versus strength in 2011 - but current Nasdaq strength is below that of 2009; a bearish divergence. ($BPCOMPQ) via The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA bounced off the 'buy' zone, but it's not oversold.


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