Typical, it always feels like markets make major moves while I'm away. So, in brief: [1] Markets (and more reliable forecast/betting markets) got the Brexit vote horribly wrong and it's going to be a long (long) time before market confidence returns: Broken Leave promises, broken Conservative and Labour parties,  a leaderless British government, a half-in/half-out Brexit with article 50 still to be administered, the Scottish/Northern Ireland problem, an EU which will look to throw the UK under the bus etc etc.  There are lots of questions to be answered before markets could consider breaking May highs (when markets had priced for a status quo vote). [2] What does this mean for Europe as a whole, or more pressing, the U.S. election? A Trump victory got a boost with the U.K. populist vote. Imagine how markets will react if Trump does win the November election... [3] The weekly charts had been consistent in forecasting long term weakness. I had highlighted this here if you

Markets plumped for a non-Brexit. While markets closed higher there wasn't the volume to suggest a great degree of confidence in the finish.  As of writing, it would appear the market 'got it right' and an opening gap higher will emerge. What bears will be looking for is a bearish 'black' candlestick, which is a close below open despite a higher close than previous session (day). The S&P is on course to tag upper broadening wedge resistance. Watch for a MACD trigger 'buy' as bulls look to press their advantage.

With Thursday's vote coming up, it's looking unlikely markets are going to make a sudden move before then. The S&P posted a small gain and helped to relieve the pressure exerted on bulls by yesterday's late selling.

A positive day on suggestions Brexit may not happen invited bulls back to market, Action to this point had the look of a pullback swing low (at least as from Thursday's action), so it was easy for buyers once it was clear there was a strong premarket. What was disappointing was the late sell off, which probably did more damage than Friday's selling, but this can be rectified with a Tuesday close inside the upper part of today's intraday range. For the S&P, today's action meant an inverse hammer crossover of the 20-day and 50-day MAs. It's interesting to see stochastics [39,1] court the bullish midline in what would traditionally be a buying opportunity - so on the chance bulls are able to open the S&P above today's close then today's damage on the intermediate time frame (up to 3 weeks) may be slight.

Bears returned on Friday, but weren't able to undo the action of bulls from Thursday. Volume did climb, registering as distribution, but Thursday's lows held. The S&P turned net bearish with stochastics [39,1] crossing below the mid-line. While relative strength (to the Russell 2000) improved.

This was the perfect day for bulls. Early selling had squeezed any weak holders out of their positions and sucked shorts in, only for the late recovery to have forced newly minted shorts to cover and encouraged new buyers to come in at lows. What's needed next are solid white candlesticks on Friday to confirm a swing low. The S&P remained below converged 20-day and 50-day MAs, but a good day tomorrow should easily regain these moving averages as support. Technicals haven't all turned negative, but slow stochastics are hanging on.

On my weekly post I had talked about the bearish position , which wasn't really apparent on the daily charts. Today was the first indication bears may be working on something more than what had looked to be a straightforward 'buy the dip' retracement. The Dow was the first index to return to a net bearish technical picture on the daily time frame. Volume was lighter than recent days, which will offer some comfort to bulls, but it's the manner of the weak finish which is of greater concern.  The 200-day MA is looking like a key support level.

Today's action saw bears attempt another day of selling, but buyers were able to recover markets by the close of business. Volume climbed to register as distribution, but the end-of-day recovery softened the blow.  Tomorrow is a chance for bulls to arrest what has been a sequence of down days. The S&P finished below the 50-day MA with technicals all net bearish. The 'doji' candlestick is a positive and a stop below today's lows offers a chance for bulls looking for a trade low.

The Short Term picture has been favoring bulls with indices knocking at new all-time highs. However, the Long Term picture hasn't really improved to the same degree. This chart of the relationship between Consumer Discretionary and Staples ETF, which J.C. Parets had shown in the past, has taken another turn in favor of bears. With the S&P at new highs, the ratio between Discretionary and Staples is about to post a new swing low to levels last seen in 2013. Should these losses accelerate it could lead to market declines last seen in 2000 and 2008. If this occurs, the media may pin it on Brexit/Trump/Kittens, but in the battle between supply and demand, supply could be in the ascendancy.

With today belonging to sellers - just - it was good to see it accompanied with low volume and very little net change in price.  Today was the perfect riposte to recent gains and shows the lack of interest for shorts to act or for longs to sell. The S&P is knocking on the door of 2,125.

Another good day for indices. All continued to gain ground as new all-time highs become closer to reality. The Russell 2000 continued to pull away as the May rally picked up steam. After a period of extended weakness it has managed to push a positive Rate-of-Change - the one indicator which had been strongly bearish until this week.  Relative performance added to its new swing high too.

There wasn't a whole lot to say about lead indices today, but buyers of the Semiconductor Index will be very happy heading into tomorrow.  After what amounted to two days of bearish action, today's buying was enough to negate the black candlestick and return the index to its earlier rally. The relative performance of this index against the Nasdaq 100 continued to improve.

The Russell 2000 led the market out with a 1%+ gain as relative performance continued to gain ground; the next phase of the Small gap rally is well underway. This is good news for bulls looking for gains to continue throughout the summer.

It was a low key Friday for markets. Markets finished near Friday's highs, but the Semiconductor Index finished with a potential bearish 'black' candlestick (a lower close to open, but a higher close to the previous day). CCI for this index is ready to cut below the 200 marker.

It's a slow and steady for indices as gains continued.  The Russell 2000 has pushed beyond the April high and will soon be hitting the 5% boundary above its 200-day MA. This market is a long way from January and February lows and there is an opportunity for a measured move higher coming out of this.

The Russell 2000 pushed on to clear April's swing high as relative performance swung back in small Caps favor over Tech Indices. The index was the clear winner in what was a quiet day for other indices. There was also a 'Golden Cross'  between 50-day and 200-day MAs.