I sourced this from The Big Picture but it is worth reading. The article is linked in PDF form here . The caveat from my side is I am bullish for markets for the next 3-4 months, but at the same time I wouldn't want to be caught on the wrong side of what Martin Pring is suggesting. Not wanting to repeat the chart from the article which Barry emphasized on The Big Picture (follow the above link to see his comments). I would like to point one towards Pring's analysis of the business cycle as it relates to now. If the markets morph into a repeat performance of 2000 (or certainly a retest of 2002 lows) then some of these ultra bear funds are looking real attractive at the moment. Take the performance of the Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC H ( RYVNX ). Over the last three years it has meandered around $25 with little in the way of volatility compared to the NASDAQ. You could hide your money here with little downside risk and wait and see how the break of the 4-year support line in the N

Opportunities are flying off the shelves. The real-time Trade Ideas scan has been busy pumping out stocks. The current selection took about 20 seconds of the software's time. I would have been happier with a more cautious reaction to the Fed decision - the worry here is the buyers will tire themsleves out and markets will once again drift lower. Luckily, volume appears strong. Free polls from Pollhost.com Which of the following Trade Ideas stocks picks do you expect to gain most by this time next week? DYN HLT UST TESOF BXP BTE LTR FMBI    Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Breadth improved over yesterday as sellers were unable to capitalize on Tuesday's sharp dip in the markets. The Trade Ideas scan took 5 minutes to come up with today's stocks. Best of the bunch looks to be Robbins and Myers ( RBN ). The stock trades around $24 - a former resistance level in late 2005 and early 2006 after retracing a heavy volume run from $20.50 to $25.66. The point-n-figure target of $36 is part of a May 3rd spread triple top breakout. Stops go on a loss of $22.50. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Tomorrow's inevitable rate hike is one more step towards the Fed's final rate hike (of which it could very well be) and the point at which one can think of future rate declines. Unfortunately, the need to cut rates is a product of recession - so life will likely get rougher before it gets better. It will be interesting to see how the Business Week listed forecasters do by years end; certainly some of the more optimistic projections are looking far fetched at the half-way point. I had noted in early May how the dollar was approaching a level of support typical of a reversal head-and-shoulder pattern. This bounce is now underway but I am skeptical of it lasting as the turnaround occurred at a point when the dollar was not sufficiently oversold to support a strong rally. What could this mean for the dollar? Don't be surprised to see another swing back to 84 which should put in place a decent bottom. A strengthening dollar will help the Fed as the dollar acts as a disinflati

The tension in the markets eventually released into a downward swing. This increased the time spread for the Trade Ideas scan; 31 minutes is a big increase to yesterdays 1 minute . The most frequent stocks to appear over this time frame were PMF ( 5 ), BANR ( 3 ) and PVX ( 3 ). PMF : Late day surge took prices back to last week's highs. Continues a steady uptrend begun at the start of 2005 but it is a relatively illiquid stock. BANR : Trading at convergence of 20-day and 50-day MAs. Tight action around $38 sets up plenty of tension to force a move one way or the other. Run stops on a loss of $37. PVX : Two weeks of coiling action sprung upside on modest volume (off the 50-day MA). Key resistance lurks at $12.75. Set stops on a loss of $12.00. Continues a triple top breakout from May 11th with a target of $18.00. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

It was a quiet day for the indices but there was plenty of bustle on the Trade Ideas scan. The 8 stocks presented here covered 1 minute of time. Of the stocks on the list, Tyler Technologies ( TYL ) and Five Star Quality Care ( FVE ) look to have the most promise; run stops on a loss of the 50-day MA. The two trusts: Acadia Realty Trust ( AKR ) and Capital Trust ( CT ) have nice charts and worth watching - look for break of $34 in CT and $23.50 in AKR . Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Friday's action brought a little bear side action into what has recently become an area of tight trading. The heavier volume upside from Wednesday dominates, both with respect to volume and the hold of its lows. Friday's light losses were enough to register potential breakdowns of weekly support, as drawn from the indices most recent reaction lows in the Dow , semiconductor index and to a lesser extent the NASDAQ 100 . These breakdowns are by no means convincing, but they tilt the markets in favor of further downside in the short term (but holding to an intermediate bullish bias). As the indices battle it out between the bulls and bears, the secondary tech indicators [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] continue their drift into deeper bullish territory. It would be preferable to see the $BPCOMPQ in the 30s and the $NASI around -1,000, but with the former hovering around 40 and the latter in the -800s it should bring good news for bulls. Certainly another downside dip would fu

Because of my trip, last week would have seen my week-on-week comparison analysis so instead I have crammed all the posts into one. It was a week when Jim Cramer and the Trade Ideas scan shone; each taking a weekly title twice, with the market ETFs taking Monday's comparison. My newsletter picks only featured for three of the five days and finished flat on the week. Jim Cramer had the best net returns for his lightning round picks with a series of -2.63% , -0.12% , +4.80% , +4.30% and +0.63% . In terms of overall performance the Trade Ideas picks reigned supreme, followed by Jim Cramer's stocks and then the Market ETFs. My newsletter picks remain slightly down on average for the week (see chart; n = 42 to 46 with 3-8 stocks per rep ( n )). However, in a straight fight between the systems, the average return per trade remains the highest in my newsletter picks 40% of the time. Jim Cramer and the Market ETFs dice for second at 26% and 24% a piece with the Trade Ideas picks t

Working on my next update. Plenty of catch up to do so look for complete posting over the weekend.

My next post won't be until Thursday as I am attending/presenting at a conference on Kauai. It was a relatively good end of week for bulls; in net terms it started more or less as it finished, but there was a whole lot of excitement along the way. Friday's higher volume reflected options expiration and although moving average resistance (20- and 200-day) held in all indices, there was little in the way of concerted selling to push markets back to Thursday's lows. The Russell 2000 gave up the most on the day, but even this index failed to retrace more than half of Friday's gains. Technically, the semiconductor index enjoyed a MACD 'buy' trigger, as did the NASDAQ 100 . All indices support bullish divergences in their MACD histograms - the first such pattern since the decline started in late April. There is still a bearish alignment between the indices with large caps leading tech markets leading small caps and this will need to change if a sustainable rally is

Bulls did a good job to get indices in the upper range of Thursday's trading. Bears were reluctant to take advantage of 20-(200-)day resistance to force the issue back to the downside. The Trade Ideas scan reflected the consolidation with a solid list of stocks covering 7 minutes of the sotwares time. The most frequent stock on the list was SUG ; it appeared three times. The remaining seven picks only appeared once. Accumulators may find interest in HGR as it works through a 2-year base. Key resistance lurks around $8.40. Gold bugs should look to VGZ , it escaped relatively unscathed from the discounting in the mining sector. If you are looking to take advantage of strength in the Utility sector, take a look at SUG . Cup-and-handle traders should look to GEF . Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Oh so close.... it needed a (non-spotted) foul by Crouch to score the goal which killed the match. The Soca Warriors are not done yet. Poor ol' Paraguay probably won't have much fight for their final match and anything can happen in the match between England and Sweden (two poor teams). I haven't seen Dwight Yorke play so well since his early days at United. As an avid listener of BBC Radio 5 I have had my fill of "England to win the World Cup" - how England plans to do this with two injured/unfit strikers, a bean pole who missed an open goal and an untried teenager is anyones guess. Hope they meet Germany in the Second Round. Trinidad and Tobago World Cup England

Big point (%) gains, but little volume to back the buying - looks like short covering. It will take the bulls time to build confidence in this market bottom. Retest of Tuesday's lows should be watched for. The Trade Ideas scan took 5-minutes to come up with 8 stocks. DTLK and PNC were the only two stocks to appear twice over this period. CMCSA and NU showing strong basing patterns. Utilities could do well in this rally, favoring Northeast Utilities ( NU ). A 3.6% dividend yield is an added bonus. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

The recent selling stopped another of my May picks out for a loss. GDW traded below May reaction lows and into the stop price, but the stock was able to close at the 50-day MA. The 150 share lot closed for a -$394 loss. GDW

The bulls made their first tentative step into the ocean with some low volume buying, but the affect was keenly felt in the Trade Ideas scan. The following eight stocks covered less than 5 minutes of the real-time scan. JCP and UARM featured twice during this period. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Worrying negative divergences are taking shape in some of the tech supporting indicators. Leading the decline are new lows in the indicator measuring the number of NASDAQ stocks over the 50-day MA - but no new reaction lows in the parent NASDAQ index. There is a Custer's last stand for the Bullish Percent Index and the index measuring the Number of Stocks over the 200-day MA; if support fails in these indicators it could lead to rapid declines and a potential retest of 1,100 lows. As for guesstimating what might happen in the future; if the NASDAQ repeats along the lines of the Nikkei index it could mean another 4 years of sideways action with support kicking in around 1,898, before a significant rally drives the market to 4,280 resistance. This would also mean no test of 1,100, with reaction lows in 2004 or 2005 acting as key support. Roman numerals in the figure below do not represent Elliot Wave counts. Time will tell. Fallond Investment

Uurrrgh! Another slamming day to the downside. But it was not all doom-and-gloom. The Trade Ideas scan was busy, the following eight stocks covered 50 minutes of the scan time - stronger buying than was seen yesterday. In terms of frequency, COBZ featured 10 times, OMCL 4 times and MTMD 3 times. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

The last couple of days selling has increased the pressure on stocks in the Collective2 portfolio. The lastest stop out was GIS . A retest of $48.50/200-day MA looks probable. The 200 share lot closed for a +$82 profit. GIS

The eight stocks for Tuesday took the Trade Ideas scan 2 hours to come up with. Most frequent was IBOC at 12 times; next was BGT and CAPA at 4 times apiece. New leaders for the next rally will come from stocks like these; commodity stocks are yesterday's news (wrt market leadership). Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

No posting today due to State Holiday

The Friday-on-Friday comparison was the worst, overall 1-week performance, since I started doing this in early February. No stock picking method closed profitable; the best performance came from the stock picks of Jim Cramer ( -2.61% ); worst were my Trade Ideas picks -4.59% . The Trade Ideas scan previous worst return was -2.73% from May 4th. The Market ETFs had their worst performance to date too at -3.69% on the week. The title of "worst perfoming individual stock" went to the Trade Ideas pick, DLIA . The stock traded at a discount of -14.78% to the previous Friday. The best performing stock was one of Jim Cramer's: BWP gained +3.48% , one of three profitable Lightning round picks out of his eight. For the Trade Ideas selection, MIG and MWIV featured three times over the 6 minutes it took the scan to come up with 8 stocks. NOV featured twice. Jim Cramer's victory brings his win percentage to 24% , tied with the market ETFs. My newsletter picks remain firmly

Bears took the honors on Friday's close; modest losses on light volume shouldn't panic the bulls too much. With large intraday ranges from Thursday, one shouldn't be surprised to see a series of low volatility down days to mark a test of last weeks lows. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 held to the greater strength of bearish gaps over Thursday's bullish hammers. Technicals continued to weaken which suggests retests of Thursday lows are favored. Even the semiconductor index, the most oversold of the technology indices, looks favored to test its lows. No index was able to escape the predicament of the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 , the Dow , S&P and Russell 2000 all look likely to repeat the action of the aforementioned indices. Watch for retest of Thursday's lows the take home message. Bullish divergences in the MACD histogram of all indices should soon bring the bounce indicated by the secondary tech indicators [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ]. Continue to watch the n

Thursday's action was the building of a big canasta pile, the question is now - who will take the pile? Bulls look to have the edge, but the failure of morning gaps (in markets in which they appeared) to close keeps the bears very much in the game. The week-on-week performance review adopted a familiar role with one exception; my Trade-Ideas scan picks took an uncharacteristic beating, closing the week down -2.12% . Next up were the indices ETFs, finishing down -1.64% . Jim Cramer rolled in with a -0.87% loss. Finally, my newsletter picks were the strongest performers with a +0.38% return on the week - hardly excessive but better than a loss. The strongest and weakest stocks were from Jim Cramer's selection; SHLD closed the week up +8.03% while TRN had a rough ride, shedding -16.36% . NGPS was the only stock to appear more than once (i.e. twice) on my Trade Ideas scan. This was the third day in a row my newsletter picks outperformed the other stock selection methods; thi

Market capitulation? Bullish divergences in money flow and a solid increase in volume. Time for the summer bounce? My Trade Ideas scan has not been short an idea or two. Over the last minute the following stocks have appeared: WXH , FPIC , FMD , PVTB , NU , FRT , VARI and MWIV . The chart I have gone for is the Eaton Vance Closed-End Bank Loan Fund, EFR . Mini-congestion following the confirmation of a 2-month base, double bottom. Larger resistance overhead at $18.48. This pattern represents a consoliation handle from a double bottom $16.17/$16.07 seen on the weekly chart. Short term, look for challenge of $20. No overhead supply above $18.65. Dividend yield of 8.60%. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

Another down day for the markets now threatens the last line of defense for the bulls, the most recent reaction lows. This weakness registered as a -1.03% loss for the Market ETFs, the largest loss on the week. The Trade Ideas scan closed slightly down at an average loss of -0.19% per trade, but there was a large spread in the returns ( +/- 1.76% ), atypical for stocks selected by the software. Jim Cramer enjoyed a successful week with 63% profitable picks and an average return of +0.70% per trade. For the second day in a row, my newsletter stocks topped the list with an average return of +1.38% return. The best pick on the week was TRBS from my newsletter, it closed the week up +8.20% . Worst pick was from my Trade Ideas scan, BGO . It finished the week down -7.93% . BGO and BMR were the only two stocks to feature more than once over the time period of the Trade Ideas scan. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-

There was moderate breadth in the market; selecting 8 different stocks from the Trade Ideas scan would have taken 20 minutes. One to watch is PHY. The fund found some footing after its last pullback from resistance. Good support between rising trendline support and $3.20. Volume rising on price rises and declining on downward moves. Prospect Street High Income Portfolio, Inc. (the Fund) is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as a diversified, closed-end, management investment company under the Investment Company Act of 1940. The Fund commenced operations on December 5, 1988. The Fund invests primarily in securities of fixed-maturity, corporate debt securities and redeemable preferred stocks that are rated less than investment grade. The total return on the Fund's per share market price, assuming reinvestment of dividends, for the six months ended April 30, 2005, including any potential returns of capital, was 14.73%. The total return on the Fund's net assets,

A mixed bag of action for the 1-week comparison, unfortunately there were no picks from Jim Cramer for Tuesday. Market ETFs had the roughest time, closing the week down -1.46% , but at least their losses were above the disaster zone which marked these ETFs in early May. My newsletter stock picks bagged the highest gains as they closed the week up an average of +1.21% per trade, helped in large part by the +10.19% gain in IMNY . My Trade-Ideas scan had a solid, if unspectacular week, ending the week up +0.38% , helped by the +8.49% gain in CNSL . The worst performance award went to MYGN from the Trade-Ideas scan. It closed the week down -3.68% . With respect to stock frequency on the Trade Ideas scan; RG , which appeared 6 times over the course of 45 minutes , closed the week up slightly ( +0.66% ). The next two most frequent stocks, CNSL and MYGN , at two appearances each covered the performance spectrum of best and worst respectively. If you would like to try a full version of

Bill Cara wrote a good piece on today's action as afternoon buying pushed the indices away from recent lows (and in the case of the Russell 2000 and S&P , the 200-day MA) on higher volume. The Trade Ideas scan showed good breadth over the course of the day. One stock to keep an eye on is WXH . The stock sits a few cents shy of a break of $11.39 resistance. A move to $11.50 would trigger a point-n-figure ascending triple top breakout with a current target of $21.00. The REIT sports a 5.4% yield. Winston Hotels, Inc., a real estate investment trust, engages in the ownership and development of hotel properties. As of December 31, 2005, the company owned or invested in 56 hotel properties in 17 states with an aggregate of 7,668 rooms. As of the above date, its properties included 49 wholly owned properties with an aggregate of 6,720 rooms; a 60% ownership interest in 1 joint venture hotel with 138 rooms; a 49% ownership interest in 1 joint venture hotel with 118 rooms; a 48.78% o

Trader Mike has posted an excellent article on his method of trading. You can get the article here Trader Mike

KIVA Subscribers who buy an annual subscription will have $25 of that payment allocated to a KIVA loan program.

Cut below the 50-day MA. I kept the original stop price to allow for a pullback to the 50-day MA, but the average failed to hold. The 300 share lot closed for a $477 loss ( -5.1% ).

Not much loving in the markets, but non-day traders jumping on the sell side following the failed test of moving average resistances in the various indices, may be doing so a little early. Indicators are still in (or close to) oversold conditions which increases the risk for sellers, in much the same way overbought market conditions did for buyers in February to May of this year. Although tech averages have suffered in 2006, large caps and small cap indices have been able to post new multi-year highs. A strong reversal will need a (failed) test of these highs to confirm the bearish picture. This will be the time to go short with confidence and I am looking for a summer rally to do this. Given the selling I was surprised to see quite a few stocks on the Trade Ideas scan. Today's pick is ALK . Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.

There has been an interesting turn of events in the performance of my stock picks available to subscribers. The returns in the table below reflect maximum percentage gains from closing price of recommendation, to the maximum high to date. The returns do not account for slippage or include commission costs. Recommendations are made every day and absent dates, or boxes filled with a " . ", reflect days all 3 stocks or an individual stock for a given date, have hit their stop price. May 18th marked the shift in favor of holding long positions and suggested plays in the three days that followed have performed the best to date. Whether the market can carry this on remains to be seen, but this is further evidence for an intermediate term bottom which should provide a rally through the summer. A weekly updated table can be found here If you would like to receive this newsletter, please fill out a payment schedule for monthly, or discounted 6-month and annual membership from the r

Markets entered a holding pattern as bullish momentum eased into tests of moving average resistance. For the NASDAQ this amounted to a test of the 200-day and 20-day MA convergence with a close below these two averages. Also tested was a support line dating back to January/February. Volume was lighter, which is good news for the bulls. The NASDAQ 100 also tested the 20-day MA, but failed to close above this average. Like the NASDAQ it traded down in lighter volume and followed with a MACD trigger 'buy' of its own. The semiconductor index closed flat thus failing to make any inroads towards 20-day moving average resistance (this index trades below the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day MAs). The Dow remained contained by the 50-day MA although the S&P managed to make small gains it still finished Friday below its 50-day MA. The Russell 2000 was unable to buck the trend and hovered around its 20-day MA. The secondary tech indicators [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] completed

Bulls and Bears fighting it out at yesterday's highs (better for the bulls). Looks like the day will close slightly down for most markets (stilll 25 minutes of trading left). The breadth of buying is not as great as it was for Thursday; today's 8 stocks covered 6 minutes of the Trade Ideas scan time. Most frequent stock on the list were MIG and MWIV , each of which featured 3 times, followed by NOV , which featured twice . Stocks breaking from bases (and have perhaps the best merits) are DLIA , KMG , MIG and DCS . Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial.