Posts

Showing posts from December, 2006

Trade Ideas: DR, SEN, IMA, NG, SVM, BDJ, IMA, B

Image
A day in which the markets held their status quo. It did result in a slow down for the Trade Ideas scan; 8 picks covered a time span of 22 minutes . Only one pick: The Servicemaster ( SVM ), pushed over the 20 appearance mark at 24 hits . Semco Energy ( SEN ), Novagold ( NG ), and The Servicemaster ( SVM ) all managed bullish crosses of their 50-day MA by the 20-day MA inside the last 2 months. On the 1-year charts there is an interesting base taking shape in Novagold ( NG ); the large gap breakout from July has held up nicely and it looks ready to drive higher. The Servicemaster ( SVM ) also found support at its breakout gap, but did so over a much narrower time frame (1 month). If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: UA, JLA, BCS, B, GGB, TJX, ARJ, AG

Image
Another good day for small caps, with large caps along for the rise. Tech is doing OK, but the channel break in the Nasdaq 100 still holds. The Trade Ideas scan skipped along with 8 picks covering a time span of 5 minutes . Unlike yesterday there were no real star performers; early day strength saw 50 appearances for Cleveland-Cliffs ( CLF ) and 32 for Petroleo Brasileiro ( PBR ). But the picks I have featured for the most recent scan made less than 20 appearances . A bullish cross of the 20-day and 50-day MAs inside the last 2 months occurred only for Nuveen Equity Premium Advantage Fund ( JLA ). For the 1-year chart there is solid trend trading for Under Armour ( UA ), Barclays Plc ( BCS ), Nuveen Equity ( JLA ), TJX Cos ( TJX ), and Agco ( AG ). Watch for a cup-and-handle in Gerdau USA ( GGB ) and Barnes group ( B ) as they approach 52-week highs. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: CSP, MRB, SUR, IMN, NCC, CB, FHN, AF

Image
Small caps made the most headway against last week's losses. The short-term channel break in the Nasdaq 100 on Friday held, even though the index managed light gains. Other indices posted modest gains. The Trade Ideas scan was reasonably buoyant for St. Stephen's Day; 8 picks covered a time span of 4 minutes (not bad!). CNA Surety ( SUR ), Chubb Corp ( CB ), China fund ( CHN ) featured 28 , 32 and 34 times respectively over the course of the day. Bullish crosses of the 20-day and 50-day MAs inside the last 2 months were found in Metallica ( MRB ), First Horizon ( FHN ) and Astoria ( AF ). Trend traders may find some seasonal joy in Metallica ( MRB ) as it confirms the break of $3.50 resistance. Place stops at the most recent reaction low ($3.75); look for a move to $4.50. National City Corp ( NCC ), First Horizon ( FHN ), and Astoria ( AF ) all trade at the resistance end of broad 8-month channels - watch for breaks. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Id

Trade Ideas: CHI

Image
This will be the last post until after Christmas. The markets took another step down, but the damage was slight and the volume light. The Trade Ideas scan was quiet; it was tough to find stocks making more than 4 or 5 appearances over the course of the day. Eight picks covered a time span of 2 hours - its full on holiday season. Calamos CV ( CHI ) was one of the few pick to make 15 appearances . The income fund broke to new reaction highs, but has larger resistance at $20.41 to look forward too. The long term chart shows frequent positive tests of the 40-week MA (*corrected from "40-day MA"*). As for a target; the point-n-figure chart of $26.50 looks reasonable. The fund pays a 9.0% yield. Calamos Convertible Opportunities & Income Fund is a closed-ended fund managed by Calamos Advisors LLC. It seeks to make its investments in the consumer discretionary, financial, energy, consumer staples, information technology, industrials, materials, healthcare, utilities, and tele

Collective2: BCGI out

Image
Raised the stop to protect the initial profits as it looks set to retest the breakout and it was this stop hit today. The 8-day play of 3,000 shares closed with a +$480 profit. Collective2

Trade Ideas: NOC

Image
Given this is another holiday week the markets weren't in the mood to shake things up too much. The Trade Ideas scan was modestly bullish (considering), with 8 picks covering a time span of 6 minutes . By far the most frequent stock to appear on the daily scan at 36 appearances was Northrop Grumman ( NOC ). The stock has breached $68.20 resistance, now support, ending a 2-month consolidation triangle/handle. Stops can go on a loss of triangle support and/or the most recent reaction low ($66). A push to $70 would trigger a breakout on the point-n-figure chart, although the current chart target of $55 has long since been met. I would look for a measured move to $80, part of a larger 10-month bullish ascending triangle. The stock pays a 1.80% yield. Northrop Grumman Corporation provides products, services, and solutions in information and services, aerospace, electronics, and shipbuilding to the military, government, and commercial customers in the United States and internationally.

Ticker Sense: Blogger poll results

The Ticker Sense Blogger poll results were published yesterday and it was interesting to see a general net bullishness for 2007. I am looking for continued rotation into large caps at the expense of tech and small cap stocks. This is why I have my projected Dow target at the upper range of Blogger expectations (my 14,000 Dow target was the top of the Dow range of 9,980 - 14,000), but my Nasdaq projection came in at the low end (2,050 was the third lowest projection of the 29 Bloggers polled, with the range of 1,950 to 3,000). My S&P Target came in at the upper range of projections (1,540 was my guesstimate with 1,150 - 1,635 the range). Sourced from Ticker Sense As for sector strength; I am looking for financials to lead the pack (it was a 50:50 split amongst bloggers for Financials with Technology, Energy and Health Care the leading candidates for next year). On the flip side, I expect it to be a poor year for Materials (Bloggers looked to Consumer discretionary, Utilies and Telec

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : December 11th

Image
A week which Jim Cramer would probably prefer to forget as his first 8 lightning rounds finished the week down an average of -3.18% per trade with only two: JCP and KSS , finishing in the green. It wasn't much better for my own newsletter picks as two of the three picks finished the week down for an average loss of -1.34% per trade. The Trade Ideas scan was the clear winner with 5 out of 8 picks profitable for an average return of +1.53% per trade. The biggest gain was found in my newsletter pick, Citigroup ( C ), which closed the week up +6.92% . Biggest loser went to Jim Cramer's Build-a-Bear Workshop ( BBW ), which closed the week down -11.01% . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you

Brett Steenbarger Market Synthesis

Brett put it nicely here: Bottom Line: I took an initial core short position in the indices when Friday's morning rally could not sustain new highs in the Russell and led to a drying up of buying over the course of the morning. If that position is sound, we should stay comfortably below Friday's highs. I continue to be impressed by the lack of participation in the most recent highs, with new 20-day highs well below the levels from earlier this month and new 20-day lows above 500. As long as the rally doesn't broaden out, I think we could return to that old value area in the ES in the mid 1420s. Brett also added another article to his Trader Performance page. Brett Steenbarger

Weekend Commentary from Fallondpicks.com

Image
Given the day that was in it (options expiration), I will open with a link to a blog which monitors the $NASI and $NYSI ; what is interesting about this blog are the MACD settings used to mark reversals. In each of the charts there is a strong case for a top in the McClellan Summation index for both the Nasdaq [ $NASI ] and NYSE [ $NYSI ]. But, I have harped on this for a long (long!) time...so it is good to see this appear somewhere else with a slightly different slant. It has been a great run, with the rate of buying defined by the channels created from July lows, but I would be happier seeing some release of tension with a swathe of good-ol' fashioned profit taking - even if this meant the rally pushed higher afterwards. A shift in leadership is needed to get fresh money working. Friday's volume related to options expiration, but tight trading kept markets net neutral with only an upside cross of the 5-day EMA in the $NAA50 the only change on the technical/ma

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review

Image
Stockcharts.com is back online. Not all the public listers were able to update for the weekend, but there is still plenty of information to review. Joe Reed hadn't added much more to his indices; although he did give a chart for NYSE - by his reckoning there looks to be a top given the PPO is flat on an RSI > 70. but is monthly chart favors continued strength (presumably after a downward leg over the short term): His healthcare chart shows a breakout - but he looks to be sticking to his top given a false breakout occurred in January. Mitchell Meana highlighted a lovely consolidation triangle in the 60-min Q's; upside target of $45.88 But his daily Qs chart is on a 'sell' signal: It still looks like he favors further upside in small caps as he waits the bottom of wave 4 to the rising channel: But, his Gold Bugs index ( $HUI ) has a 1-2 wave of a larger downward trend: Ted Burge repeated his mantra about DEMAND in control, but markets at RESISTANCE. Dec 16th! Be no

Stockcharts.com: Down due to the storms

Given the amount of web traffic I am getting today from Google searches for "Stockcharts.com" it would appear the site has fallen victim to the storms in the Northwest. Hopefully, things will be back to normal soon - it took a day for the power to come back in Hawaii after the quake but the problems in Washington State looks to be considerably broader. For the newcomers to my site, I do a weekly review of the most popular trafficed lists on their site. It is usually posted early Sunday morning ET (late Saturday Hawaii time). Please subscribe to my feed, bookmark, or link to me if you are interested in reading this. Again, this week's review will depend on how quickly Chip and Co. can get the site back online. Don't hold your breath for tomorrow, but things should be back to normal next week. For a complete list of my weekly reviews (one was linked by Brett Steenbarger) - click on the Technorati tag below: Stockcharts.com

Trade Ideas Widget

Image
You will notice in the right-hand margin that I have added the latest Trade Ideas widget. The parameters for the scan are provided in the image above the scan output. Other than the new high setting and volume filter, the scan pretty much replicates my Base scan I use to select the 8 stocks. Given I am looking for stocks to hold over a period of days to weeks the delayed data is less of an issue. Unfortunately, Stockcharts.com is down - so I can't provide a snapshot chart for today's picks; but the top 8 would be: GCI , NTG , APPB , LOGC , EPL , ENTG , VEH , and VRNT . Stock Screener Trade Ideas

KIVA: Two new loans

Image
The following two new loans come courtesy of F. Grossenberger and H. Bange. This brings the total of outstanding loans to 13 , with 4 loans paid back. All of this money comes courtesy of membership subscription revenues. If you would like to help and are thinking of subscribing, then download my PDF:Introduction to my Services . KIVA

Trade Ideas: SGF, VEH, GCS, LLL, MTB, FCN, BJ, CEO

Given the strong day for the indices I was surprised to see the Trade Ideas scan keep pace with previous days in that 8 picks covered a time span of 8 minutes . In terms of individual stock frequency, two: L-3 Communications ( LLL ) and Valero GP Holdings ( VEH ) made over 20 appearances at 23 and 22 hits apiece, but outside of these two stocks there were a few others like ETN and KEY which broke this barrier. Valero GP ( VEH ) was the only stock to make a bullish cross of the 50-day and 20-day MAs inside the last 2 months. M&T Bank Corp ( MTB ) had made a bearish cross of these averages inside the same time frame. The remaining stocks held to long standing up trends. From the one-year charts; trend traders may get some joy from the Singapore fund ( SGF ) - look to buy tests of the 20-day MA. Similarly for L-3 ( LLL ), the 20-day MA has more-or-less been the trend marker. Base buyers can look to M&T Bank Corp ( MTB ) or China National ( CEO ). If you would like to try a ful

Trade Ideas: JPG, JPZ, SCS, KMR, FSP, ITM, TE, EWZ

Image
Other than the semiconductors (which are going a little pear shaped) it was another non-day for the markets. The Trade Ideas scan kept with recent momentum, selecting 8 stocks in 8 minutes . None of the 8 climbed over the 20 appearance mark . Only Kinder Morgan ( KMR ) and Nuveen Equity Premium and Growth Fund ( JPG ) completed bullish crosses of their 50-day and 20-day MAs inside the last 2 months. Trend traders will likely go for Kinder Morgan ( KMR ) or Teco Energy ( TE ). Cup-and-handle traders can look to one of the Nuveen funds ( JPG or JPZ ), or Franklin Street ( FSP ). Solid bases are taking shape in the Brazil iShares ( EWZ ) and Basic Materials iShares ( IYM ). If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: JPG, CLG, PDX, EDS, TVE, PCF, TYW, VPL

Bears didn't do much point damage, but volume climbed to register a distribution day for the Nasdaq (Stockchart.com have yet to update the volume for the other indices). A quick review of my current-in-play picks saw a more widespread malaise, but not enough to suggest the day was more than what it was (i.e. a mild down day). The Trade Ideas scan kept its current form with 8 picks covering a time span of 9 minutes . However, none of the 8 picks broke the 20 appearance mark, and many didn't climb above 13 hits - very poor. Bullish crosses of the 20-day and 50-day MAs occurred in Vanguard Pacific VIPERs ( VPL ), Pediatrix Medical ( PDX ), and Cumberland ( CLG ). A bearish cross of these averages was observed in Nuveen Equity Premium and Growth Fund ( JPG ). The 1-year charts are mixed. EDS ( EDS ) has shaped a nice cup-and-handle pattern; buy break of $27.50, stop on loss of $26.40, projected target of $34. Trend traders may find some love with Tennessee Valley Authority ( TVE

Trade Ideas: EXC, RDY,EFD, ITC, PDX, FIF, EAS, BUD

Image
Bulls kept things bubbling without pulling any major moves. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day for the NASDAQ, but volume for the other indices was lighter than Friday's. The Trade Ideas scan was similarly buyer light; 8 picks covered a time span of 14 minutes . Anheuser Busch ( BUD ) was the only stock to make over 20 appearances @ 21 hits . The moving average front was mixed: Dr. Reddy's ( RDY ), Pediatrix Medical ( PDX ), Financial Federal ( FIF ), and Energy East ( EAS ) all made recent bullish crosses of the 20-day and 50-day MAs. Anheuser Busch ( BUD ) and Exelon Corp ( EXC ) were the only two of the eight picks to make bearish crosses of these averages. Solid bases look to be shaping up in: Dr. Reddy's ( RDY ), projected target of $26, stops on break of $16; eFunds Corp ( EFD ). projected target of $34, stops on loss of $25. A crude bullish ascending triangle has formed in Energy East ( EAS ), within which is a bullish "Rising-Three-Methods" - r

Weekend Commentary from Fallondpicks.com

Image
Weak gains on Friday's data did little to give back to the bulls the ground they ceded to the bears on Thursday. Plenty of support below but the July-December rising channels have been breached in the NASDAQ , Dow , and NASDAQ 100 , only those channels in the Russell 2000 and S&P remain. The semiconductor index took the biggest hit Friday, but none of the indices suffered significant technical damage on the day and it is only the weakness in tech market internals [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] which suggest a significant top is close to been in place (if not in place already). To once again repeat a mantra, I am 'stuck' on the bearish side of the fence for the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll on the 30-day picture. Newsletter update : GFI clipped its raised stop at the lows of the day. The October 18th and December 1st Subscriber plays closed for a 3% gain and a 6% loss respectively. fallond

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review

No review for this week as family are in town to see Junior. Stockcharts.com

Trade Ideas: BEC

Image
Jobs data helped put a little bullish strength in the market, but it didn't change the overall picture as markets took back some of Thursday's losses. The perceived bullish jobs data wasn't reflected in the Trade Ideas scan buying; 8 picks covered a time span of 15 minutes - well outside the range of buying for the last few days when markets were up, and down! The only pick to push over the 20 appearance mark was Beckman Coulter ( BEC ) at 22 hits . The chart hasn't broken from its crude triangle consolidation (but is close to doing so). Stops can go on a loss of support and if the triangle plays to form BEC should go on to challenge $71. The 1.00% yield is a handy bonus. Beckman Coulter, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of biomedical testing instrument systems, tests, and supplies. Its product lines include various blood tests routinely performed in hospital laboratories and a range of systems for medical and pharmaceutical research. The company

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : November 30th

Image
Weakness Thursday wasn't enough to knock the 1-week returns of the market ETFs to a loss, but they came close with a +0.02% return. Star of the week belonged to Jim Cramer's Lightning round picks; the 8 bullish stocks returned an average of +1.60% , well above the Trade Ideas returns of +0.51% . There were no newsletter stocks to compare against for the week. Best individual stock was Jim's BSX with a 1-week return of +6.81% . Worst pick was also one of Jim's: RIMM finished the week down -3.92% . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap . SPONSORED BY:-

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : November 29th

Image
The first newsletter stocks for the week performed very well; my four picks returned an average of +4.51% per trade. Seven of Jim Cramer's 8 picks closed in the plus column with an average return of +1.80% , just a snip ahead of the market ETFs and their +1.18% return. For the market ETFs this is the 24th consecutive profitable weekly return, helping the average to +0.37% (n=84). The Trade Ideas picks edge the weekly performance stakes with a +0.39% return (n=83). Lagging were Jim Cramer's stocks at +0.16% (n=71) and my newsletter stocks at breakeven (n=72). If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap . SPONSORED BY:-

Trade Ideas: KEX

Image
Some downside to the day, but markets closed much as they did yesterday. The Trade Ideas scan was similar in its rate of stock ideas with 8 picks covering a time span of 6 minutes . Only one pick made it to the 20 appearance mark: Kirby Corp. ( KEX ). The stock trades inside a rising channel, but is wedged between $36 support and $37 resistance. A break of resistance should see a challenge of the next level of resistance at $40.35. Stops can go on a break of channel support around $36. There was a "Golden Cross" between the 50-day and 200-day MAs late November. The projected target from the current base is up around $50 which closely approximates the point-n-figure target of $48. Kirby Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides marine transportation and diesel engine services in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Marine Transportation and Diesel Engine Services. The Marine Transportation segment engages in the inland transportation of petrochemicals

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : November 28th

Image
Another sea of green for last weeks stock picks. Jim Cramer scored a perfect 100% profitable Lightning round picks (at least of the 8 I used) with the highest average return of the week: +2.97% . The market ETFs were close behind with a +2.22% return and the Trade Ideas scan with an +2.05% average on the week. The best individual stock performance was Jim Cramer's DVN and its +6.23% gain. The worst (and only loser) was the Trade Ideas pick, R , with a -2.86% loss. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap . SPONSORED BY:-

Trade Ideas: CXW

Image
Bulls took a breather from battering the bears, leaving markets relatively unchanged as of 3:30pm ET. The Trade Ideas scan was similarly quiet with 8 picks covering a time span of 6 minutes ; bullish enough buying, but not overwhelming. Consequently, there were only a handful of stocks breaking the 20 appearance barrier; most recent was Corrections Corp of America ( CXW ) at 25 appearances (yesterday was Big Brother, today the Prison system - what will tomorrow bring?). Although fulfilling the requirements of the Trade Ideas scan, the stock remains contained by a horizontal trading channel of $44.49 support and $47.88 resistance - trade the break of resistance, run a stop on a loss of support. The stock has already enjoyed a strong 2006 and the point-n-figure chart target of $38 is pause for concern. The latter (bearish) target would be negated by a move to $50 (which would equate to a new triple top breakout). As for an upside price target, look to $64 - a measured move target. Corre

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : November 27th

Image
Given it was a Thanksgiving weekend there was only the Trade Ideas scan picks to report. Even though it was the only set of picks for Monday, it handily outperformed the market ETFs with a very strong +4.87% average return. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap . SPONSORED BY:-

New blog

Image
I came across this blog by Douglas S Gammons which has a wealth of information, particularly for followers of bullish percents. He also maintains a public Stockchart list . LOTS of information here. Headline Charts

Trade Ideas: LLL

Image
Bulls have stung the bears with solid gains after what had looked to be the start of a new run downwards. Today's gains won't change the weakness of market internals, but will at least push them a step closer to reversing back in favor of the bulls. The Trade Ideas scan was buoyant with 8 picks covering a time span of 2 minutes . The buying was relatively evenly spread, although one pick, L-3 Communications ( LLL ) featured a total of 48 times over the course of the day. The stock has cleared a 1-month pennant following a recent bullish "Golden Cross" between the 200-day and 50-day MAs. Stops can go on a loss of Monday's lows. Projected target is close to $117; point-n-figure chart target is $104. Monday's action ranks as an ascending triple top breakout on the point-n-figure chart. Big Brother is watching. L-3 Communications Holdings, Inc. provides intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems; secure communications systems; aircraft moderniz

Fallondpicks.com: Weekend commentary

Image
Bears made a follow on push to Monday's losses, but bulls were able to make enough of a stand to keep certain support levels intact. The NASDAQ broke below channel support but was able to hold former October resistance, now support, of 2,381. This support was undermined a little by the reversal of relative strength compared to large caps [ S&P ]; markets don't perform as well when large caps are leading. The Dow was less lucky as was unable to regain former channel suport but was able to gain against the NASDAQ 100 with respect to relative strength. However, the NASDAQ 100 was able to hold its channel support (unlike the NASDAQ ) and even though it gave up position relative to small caps [ Russell 2000 ] it still holds in favor of the bulls. The Russell 2000 was also able to hold channel support as it continues to perform above expectations (my expectations were for a sharp out performance from large caps relative to small caps). It also held its ground against the N

KIVA new loan

Image
The latest loan comes courtesy of E. Scott, CT. This brings the number of active loans to 11 and the number of paid off loans to 4 . Subscribers to my managed portfolio or newsletter (fill out a subscription term in the right-hand-margin) will have part of their payment allocated to a KIVA loan of their choice. KIVA

Stockcharts.com Weekly review

Image
After the Thanksgiving weekend and a week when the bears challenged the substantial bull rally, what had the Stockcharters have to say about the market. Joe Reed has highlighted tops in the RSI and Ultimate Oscillator of the Dow: he was emphasing support in Crude Oil: and a top in the S&P Healthcare sector: he had this to say about the Healthcare sector: Micheal Mitchell has again kept his charts clear and concise. He has picked out the downside target for the Qs on the 15 minute chart and has called a fifth wave top for the Qs (with a corrective A-B-C wave in progress): S&P: and Russell 2000: Ted Burge again kept the lesson simple: Dec 2nd! Be not deceived, be aware of the facts. There are signs of a weakening trend and this is evident on the PnF report and the number of new buy and sell signals and particularly stock losing demand. Support and resistance is based on fact. It is the precise level that price has changed direction dozens of times. It is objectively verifiable

Archive

Show more