Showing posts from May, 2007

Trade Ideas: ATU, GMO, BEP, ALJ, HIW, DOV, AN, VQ

The markets may have hovered around yesterday's gains but it was another bullish day for the Trade Ideas scan; the top-8 picks came in at 2 minutes while the "20-appearance" list covered 27 minutes . The one index which played catchup to the markets was the semiconductor index as it tacked on 1.42% compared to yesterday's narrow loss. As for some of the other indices. The Russell 2000 was able to put some distance from broadening wedge resistance: Large caps are swimming along nicely: Nasdaq has more toppy action to show for itself: If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: XEC, WWY, TMA, CVD, NRI, CR, JNC, CYT

The Shanghai collapse made little impact on US markets as bulls continued their advance. Markets finished the day just below their highs, although small caps benefited most with a new closing high for the year - although it finished just a shade above resistance of its broadening wedge - also note the developing bearish divergence in slow stochastics: The Trade Ideas scan was very bullish with both the top-8 picks and the "20-appearance" list coming in at under a minute . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

How accurate are bloggers?

I did some scratch work analysis of the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll to see how accurate individual bloggers were on calling the S&P 30-days out. It is a shortened analysis based on 2007 performance (starting from December 2006 to allow for a January call, ending on April 23rd - the most recent recordable projection). Not all bloggers which contributed an opinion are included chiefly because I prepared my spreadsheet from recent opinion givers and worked backwards - so some bloggers who were regular providers in the early part of the year but no longer are (in recent months) are excluded. The data covers 20 polls. The S&P was measured from the open of the start of the week to the close 1-month later. Because the Ticker Sense options are bullish/bearish/neutral I defined a neutral outlook as anything less than a 1% gain or loss; bullish been >1% gain and bearish >1% loss. Based on these parameters the S&P scored 12 Bullish periods, 4 Bearish periods and 4 Neutr


AN extension of Friday's trading? Modest gains on light volume still weren't enough to erase Thursday's losses. But Bulls do have a platform from which to launch an attack on supply - the question is whether bears will be able to respond? The Trade Ideas scan was in the bullish camp with a top-8 picks covering 2 minutes and the "20-appearance" list at just over an hour . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas Weekly review

The week saw another attempt by the bears to kill what has been a resilient rally. What had the Stockcharters got to say about it? Dr. Joe kicks the review off with his summary of the weeks action: He has finally indicated the 'sell' trigger in his Dow (a little late Joe...): Ted Burge has a good chart showing how Friday's action failed to reclaim resistance at 2,563 (based on his measurements - note the earlier attempted breakout in early May): His semiconductor chart is caught between support and resistance - a move to 472 looks favored at this point (note increasing MACD weakness in histogram): The Russell 2000 sits in a similar predicament: Mitchell Meana has marked in his wave "V" top for the Diamonds ( DIA ). Its interesting this target also approximates the measured move derived from the Feb-March range : With the Nasdaq 100 looks to have reached its upside target too: Robert New has kept with the new highs in the Wilshire as an important indicator for

Trade Ideas: 3-month; 6-month; 1-year performance

My Trade Ideas scan was developed as a method to screen stocks developing a bullish base, but trading close enough to a short term and intermediate term moving averages to be considered a relatively low risk buy. My "Base Scan" is similar to the one given in the widget in the sidebar (less the 'New High' filter). Early on in the year I looked at a fixed reward:risk return for these picks. This time I decided to look back and see how the picks generated by the software 3-, 6- and 12-months ago have performed. For the 3-month data I used the dates February 23rd to February 27th, for the 6-month data I used November 27th and the 12-month data is from May 22nd. The market ETFs are an average return for the SPY, QQQQ, and IWM. What is clear from the data is the consistent performance of my Trade Ideas scan; even the percentage profitability was very high; for 3 months it was 79%, for 6-months its was 87% and the 12-month data it was 74%. My own newsletter picks ("Fall

Trade Ideas: Bulls patch up the damage

The bulls did a patch job on the market, but there was little in the way of technical recovery from yesterday's damage. The Trade Ideas picked up the pace with the top-8 picks coming inside a minute and a 20-appearance list (stocks not shown) coming in at 2 hours and 10 minutes . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

How to sell a Safari

Sourced this from one of TraderMike's links, as he said himself - its amazing - a busy 8 minutes at a watering hole (those tourists got their moneys worth): Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: Slow slow day...

No surprise given the day that it was, although the Trade Ideas scan did give some warning when buying slowed late in the day yesterday. There was more of the same today with the top 8 picks coming in at 1 hour and 38 minutes with only Penn Virginia GP holdings ( PVG ), Quantum Corp ( QTM ), and Federal Agricultural Mortgage ( AGM ) breaking the 20-appearance barrier. I doubt Friday is going to see too much action - so enjoy the weekend! If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Collective2: AVR out

It was a short trip for this play. The risk was low given the proximity of the most recent reaction low, but Thursday's substantial market correction was enough to turn this into a half-a-day deal. The 500 share position closed for a -$379 loss ( -4.1% ). Collective2

"Virgin Stocks" from Stockbee a.k.a Pradeep Bonde

This is an interesting stock picking strategy developed by Pradeep Bonde over at Stockbee . His strategy is more rigorous and easier for selecting candidates than the one used here. I took a more protracted path; I first visited Hoover's IPO performance list and did an eyeball search for candidates which were trading below their IPO price. They have data going back to 1996 so if you have the time you pull performance data all the way back to then - such as Yahoo!s . For simplicities sake I went for 2006: January-March 2006 Himax Technologies (HIMX) China GrenTech Corp (GRRF) Clayton Holdings (CLAY) Nextest Systems (NEXT) Morton's Restaurant (MRT) Cardica Inc (CRDC) Digital Music Group (DMGI) American Telecom Services (TES) Altus Pharmaceuticals (ALTU) April-June 2006 Aventine Renewable Energy (AVR) PGT (PFTI) Replidyne (RDYN) Golfsmith International (GOLF) Verasun Energy (VSE) Luna Innovations (LUNA) Vonage Holdings (VG) Restore Me

Trade Ideas: CR, NLC, TSU, CRZ, EW, MTG, BKS, EON

Profit taking into the long weekend was hardly surprising - it will probably be more of the same for the last two days of the week. Given the lack of buying interest it was no surprise to see the Trade Ideas scan take 4 hours to cover the "20-appearance" list (presented below) and a bearish 30 minutes for the top-8 stocks. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: TMA, WTW, EW, TEK, SKT, NAL, BCR, PCL

My market summary is in the post which follows, so here is just the Trade Ideas data for buying strength. The top-8 picks were a little slow to appear at 8 minutes while the "20-appearance" list covered a healthy 51 minutes . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Where to next?

Tuesday was more or less a repeat of yesterday. I don't know if the Russell 2000 has completed a bullish breakout from a handle (where resistance stood at 835), or if a completed test of a broadening wedge has been made? If the former there should be further gains on Wednesday (or at least no close under 835), if the latter then look for a move back under 835. The Dow has reached is projected target. Fibonacci retracements likely favor a move to the 50-day MA. The S&P still has some 30 points to run before it reaches its projected target: The Nasdaq is interesting in that it cleared the 2,580 stumbling block, but volume has hardly been inspiring: Fallond

New KIVA loan

There was a fresh loan repayment from J E Norrgard's April 06 Subscription payment. I have recycled this money back into the system with a new KIVA loan: You can help him too: KIVA

8 Performing Stocks

There has been plenty of positive movement in my newsletter picks - although many have gone straight up with little in the way of a pause for breath. For those looking for a recent sample of newsletter stock picks can get them here . NTELOS Holdings ( NTLS ) has been riding the gains from its May 2nd earnings . The MACD bearish divergence was blown out of the water on the news, supported by solid accumulation as measured by on-balance-volume. The stock featured for newsletter subscribers in January and April, before the stock launched to current levels. A trailing stop can be placed on a break of the lows of the May trend. The 0.70% yield provides a loose change bonus. Partner Communications ( PTNR ) has moved in well defined steps. The most recent surge was backed by Q1 earnings . There are some concerns with falling volume on higher prices, but stop placement is relatively easy here with a solid bull trend to back the rally. The stock featured for newsletter subscribers back in F


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