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Showing posts from August, 2012

Daily Market Commentary: Sellers Emerge

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Today was a bit of a seller's tease. It was a clear win on the part of bears, but volume was light. Bernanke's comments tomorrow may inject the volume which was missing today. The most significant loss came in the semiconductor index.  It had been loitering around 200-day MA / 396 support, both of which were lost today. It has fallen back to breakout support, which is a last line of defense before the 50-day MA. Technicals suggest there is more downside to come. Also hurting was the Russell 2000 as it reversed against resistance. However, it finished close to the 20-day MA with the 50-day MA and 795 support nearby.  A further pullback - especially if it made it back to the angled trendline connecting the swing lows of June and July - could be an interesting long play for a push above 820. The Dow is offering one such trendline long play.  The rising wedge is bearish, but if there is a bounce it should happen from Friday's open. But in the bearish camp

Daily Market Commentary: Holiday Trading Continues

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There is only a couple vacation days left for August and this continues to be reflected in trading volume. The S&P continues to hold 20-day SMA support with a third doji in a row. The semiconductor index is holding horizontal support at 396 and its 20-day MA. The past five days have seen some very tight trading, so a big response can be expected soon.  Will Monday be the day this breaks the malaise? The Russell 2000 is the index most likely to break first. It is carefully poised on resistance and may make its move as soon as tomorrow. The one index to show a technical weakness was the Nasdaq 100 with its 'sell' trigger in the MACD.  However, the index itself remains above channel resistance and hasn't shown any price weakness. Not expecting much from tomorrow given the volume. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for gl

Daily Market Commentary: More of the Same

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In an extension of yesterday's lackluster action markets traded in a relatively tight range.  The Russell 2000 got the best of the day's action, adding nearly 0.5% in an attempt a push into overhead resistance around 820. Tech averages also gained, finishing slightly higher, but on light volume. The semiconductor index is trading at dual support of the 20-day MA and horizontal support of 396, a good place for a long trade.  A push higher in the semiconductor index will help long-side positions in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. The S&P was able to hold its 20-day MA but with a new bearish cross in on-balance-volume.  The index is trading in the middle of a rising channel and could go either way. Again, bulls should stick to Tech and the Semiconductor Index.  Bears can look for a break in the 20-day MA of S&P - although it too currently offers a long side opportunity at this average. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market

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Daily Market Commentary: Low Key Day

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It felt like the Bank Holiday in the U.K. seeped into Monday's U.S. trading. Markets experienced small losses on light volume.  The only exception was the Nasdaq which edged a tiny gain on higher volume accumulation, but it didn't change anything with respect to the market making a new high (or low). The S&P didn't do much, but what it didn't do is more interesting.  The 20-day MA is only a few points away and if it breaks there is a big gap down to the 50-day MA and rising channel support. The Russell 2000 was nondescript. The 820-826 zone is defining the index and currently is resistance. Indices still look like they want to push higher.  If there is a break lower, the S&P will be the index likely to suffer most (given the gap between 20-day and 50-day MAs). --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets w

Weekly Market Commentary: Weak(ish) Finish

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Friday's rally did enough to take the sting off the weekly close. The Nasdaq was the most resilient, shedding just a handful on points by Friday's finish.  Technicals held firm and are net bullish. Despite the slight decline in the parent Nasdaq, the Nasdaq Summation Index and Nasdaq Bullish Percents were able to close slightly higher, but the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA fell. The Russell 2000 took the biggest hit on the week as it was repelled off 825, but the June rally remains in play. I have redrawn channel support to account for the latest rally. The S&P finished the week down -0.5% and just shy of a new high. However, the index held 1,400 support while it rides former channel support turned resistance. Look for a new multi-year high next week. Next week probably still offers enough of an edge for bulls. The Nasdaq is the leading indiex, closely followed by the S&P.  Small Caps are lagging and this is likely to continue while

Daily Market Commentary: Light Volume Selling

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Selling was focused in Large and Small Caps, but Tech Stocks were relatively immune. The S&P fell back to its 20-day MA with a MACD trigger 'sell' to accompany the selling. The next step is rising channel support. The Nasdaq still has room to run to support. Small Caps also have room to run to support, but continue to sharply underperform relative to Technology.  However, Small Caps do slightly better against Large Caps. The Nasdaq 100 sits at an interesting juncture, the sell off has taken the index down to former channel resistance which offers a long side opportunity. A day trade long opportunity may be available for the Nasdaq 100 at the channel line and the S&P 20-day MA. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the

Daily Market Commentary: Buyers Attempt a Stand

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Not sure buyers are coming in a little early on this? But after Tuesday's sharp intraday reversal it had looked likely markets were going to take a little breather.  Instead, bulls took markets off their lows and back to Tuesday's close - or slightly higher.  Volume was lighter, so there wasn't a whole lot of conviction to the buying. The Nasdaq had the best of the buying, keeping the July rally on track towards testing channel resistance.  Technical strength remains good. The Russell 2000 was the day's underperformer.  It closed lower, but had managed to claw back some of the day's losses.  It remains primed to break past the June swing high (long ago breached for the S&P and Nasdaq) and has plenty of support to look too at 795, 20-day and 50-day MAs. The S&P was effectively caught in the middle.  Closing on a doji and in a position where it could go either way.  Tuesday's high effectively touched channel resistance, so the scales area tippe

Daily Market Commentary: Bearish Reversal

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A weak finish undermined the bright start markets enjoyed. Volume picked up in line with bearish distribution, lending weight to the probability for further declines in the short term. The Nasdaq also experienced distribution and looks ready to move back to channel support. The Russell 2000 managed to break resistance only to see it finish at the day's lows.  Todays' highs marked the upper end of resistance. In the short term, look for further declines - likely back as far as channel support, but the overall trend remains bullish. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advance

Daily Market Commentary: Close Near Friday's Highs

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The week started quietly with indices finishing near last Friday's highs. Volume was light, in line with vacation trading. The Nasdaq continued its impressive run technically, despite its minuscule 0.01% loss on the day. Nasdaq sentiment picked up steam with the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA rising above 60%. The Russell 2000 remains nicely primed to clear 820. Only the volatility index (VXN) gives an indication things may get a little rocky in the days ahead. ---- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strate

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Weekly Market Commentary: Good Advance for Indices

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It was a decent week for the indices, helped in large part by Thursday's volume advance and Friday's little top up. The overall weekly volume wasn't great, but it sets up next week for a challenge of all-time highs for many of the markets. The S&P is already there as it managed a new closing weekly high. The Dow is on the verge of a new high and a breakout.  Will Monday do it? The Russell 2000 had the biggest advance on the week, but it still has the most work to do before it gets to clear resistance. The real action won't come until September, but bulls might put on a little flourish before we get there. --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the

Daily Market Commentary: Markets Pop Higher

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In what amounted to a follow through from days of inaction, markets took a step higher on some decent volume (accumulation).  The index to make the most of the leap was the breakout - albeit of rising channel resistance - in the Nasdaq 100. Next on the hit list is a challenge to clear 2,790, but it's looking good for tech stocks. Helped in part by some strong recovery action in Semiconductors; note the rise in relative strength between Semiconductors and the Nasdaq 100 since the July swing low.  This is an indication of leadership from bullish-economic sensitive sectors; good news going into 2013 for the economy. Small Caps were another index to shine. There was a solid pop above mini-resistance of 803 and heading into an area of resistance around 820. If there is a cautionary tale it's in the VXN.  It's fast approaching its all-time low from 2005. This in itself isn't an immediate problem, but it started a gradual rise which eventually culminated i

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Enjoy Some Buying

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It was a solid day for Small Caps and Tech Indices, albeit without any great volume to back up the buying. The overall market continues to lull in 'vacation trading' mode and is unlikely to see this reversed until September. The Russell 2000 is holding above what is increasingly becoming support at 795.  There is a band of resistance around 820 which still has to be challenged but it's looking reasonably good on getting there. The Nasdaq 100 continues to run along upper channel resistance and its 6 day failure to reverse from it suggests it will push through and higher. Technically, it's still resistance and therefore bearish - but bears/shorts should have pushed the market down by now... This consolidation may unwind sharply higher before the extended nature of the July rally takes hold (look to around 2,800 for this to happen). Large Caps were relatively dull, although like the Nasdaq 100 there is a stronger possibility for a push higher from the recent ti

Daily Market Commentary: Holding Fort

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Another tight day on slightly heavier volume trading. Small Caps took the worst of it, but it was still a relatively minor loss. The Nasdaq closed with a bearish 'cloud cover' diagnosis on confirmed distribution.  Tomorrow looking like it will be a down day with the index overbought. The S&P was relatively quiet. With the Dow up against resistance So, will tomorrow be the down day? --- Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for Zignals.com . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Trading Strategy Marketplace Leaderboard. The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements. Zignals offers a full suite of FREE financial s

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