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Showing posts from July, 2024

Late day buying might not be enough to disguise bearishness

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Action in the Nasdaq was the most telling. The last couple of days have seen the index struggle to recover its 50-day MA, closing yesterday with the bearish 'black' candlestick common in reversals. Buyers did their best to defend the 17,033 swing low, but I'm not sure it will be enough. There is a gap around the 15,850 mark from May that will suck prices down to it, then there is the 200-day MA for long term support. Technicals are bearish, but not fully oversold, although On-Balance-Volume edged a new 'buy' trigger. However, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a bullish 'hammer' or 'doji' that tagged *weekly* trend support intraday before bouncing.

S&P finds weekly support, but Friday's buying lacked confdence

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Friday was a bit of a mixed bag. Buyers stepped in at the 50-day MA for the S&P, but they lacked conviction with light trading volume and a net bearish turn in technicals. The likelihood is for a return to downside for Monday, particularly if there is permarket drift below the closing price. However, there is a more of a positive picture in the S&P weekly chart. While it's no guarantee, the index did finish on a weekly support trendline dating back to end of 2023. So, even we see an early week break of support of this trendline, watch for a rally to return the index above this line by Friday.

Heavy selling in Nasdaq and S&P as Semiconductors crushed

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A difficult day for the Semiconductor Index as it sheds nearly 6%, losing not just 50-day MA support, but also breakout support of 5,200. Technicals are net bearish, but not oversold on intermediate term stochastics.

"Dead Cat" bounce as weak buying visits indices

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Looking at weekly charts, the Nasdaq had finished with a bearish "evening star" candlestick reversal pattern and this is typically followed with further selling. However, while I would be looking for further weakness, we may see on Wednesday or Thursday a spike low that will deliver the aggressive reversal day traders like.

S&P returns to breakout support, but has the trend been broken?

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Monday will be decision time for the S&P as last week's selling tags breakout support, but also breaks a bullish trendline. The selling undercut the 20-day MA with a 'sell' trigger in the MACD. Signs point downward with money cycling away from Large Caps to Small Caps stocks but Monday is a chance for buyers to step in and defend support. After Wednesday's gap down, selling volume eased, which may be a sign of complacency or a genuine lack of interest in taking profits at this point.

Sellers strike as S&P and Nasdaq gap down

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It was a hard fall, but one day does not a bear market make. The Nasdaq took the biggest hit on the day breaching the bearish wedge, but on lighter volume. The index closed below the 20-day MA, but there is a chance for swing traders to trade a move back to 18,500 if we a see a bullish doji or hammer tomorrow by the close. There is a weak 'sell' trigger in the MACD.

Russell 2000 ($IWM) kicks on again with a bright start to week

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I didn't expect the Russell 2000 ($IWM) to have it in itself after a strong finish to last week, but today is a positive start to this week as the index looks to shape a right-hand-side base. Technicals are net positive with what could turn out to be a relative outperformance against the S&P.

Russell 2000 ($IWM) falters despite strong opening gap

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The divergence between the Russell 2000 ($IWM), and the S&P and Nasdaq continues. Thursday's surge in the Russell 2000 on higher volume accumulation continued into Friday's premarket and open. However, buyers were unable to maintain their price momentum despite another day of strong buying volume. Having said that, there is plenty of room for buyers to find their foothold should sellers press late Friday selling pressure into Monday; $210 ($IWM) - the gap and prior high resistance-turned-support looks to be the area to watch.

Russell 2000 ($IWM) surges as S&P and Nasdaq head south.

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If ever there was a case for two stories, then today was it. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) gapped higher with a gain over 3% as both the S&P and Nasdaq took a hit, the latter nearly shedding 2%. In the long run, this may be more bullish for the broader market, even if profit taking was the order of the day. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) didn't look back after the reaction to today's economic data. It surged, then surged some more. Technicals are net positive and relative performance has swung back in Small Caps favor. Volume also rose in confirmed accumulation.

Slow day at highs for S&P and Nasdaq

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I experienced mixed fortune day trading, unable to catch gain traction on my positional calls, resulting in a small net loss. This expressed itself as narrow range doji for both the Nasdaq and S&P. For the S&P there was a fresh 'buy' signal in the MACD as part of the 5,500 breakout. Volume edged a little higher, counting as registered accumulation. The slow down in the rally opens up for a reversal and test of breakout support.

S&P and Nasdaq continue to diverge from Russell 2000 ($IWM)

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The divergence between the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 continues to expand. The former indices are accelerating in their bullish trend while the Russell 2000 wallows in itself. Having said that, it's not all plain sailing. The S&P hasn't yet reversed the 'sell' trigger in the MACD, but it's getting there.

S&P and Nasdaq continue to make the running

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It was a good day for the S&P and Nasdaq as both made attempts to clear their recent trading ranges. However, neither cleared the spike highs from Friday which continue to look like peaks for their respective rallies, although the Nasdaq has come closest to doing so. Buying volume was well down and the MACD trigger 'sell' for each index remains intact.

Late selling sends markets below their Friday open price

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After a bright start by bulls, markets quickly took a turn and bears were left in control into the close. Both the S&P and Nasdaq finished with similar candlesticks; a nasty inverse hammer on higher volume distribution. This isn't great news for Monday as indices were looking to come out of a week long pause. It's too early to say what the long term impact of Friday's action will be, but Friday's was the kind of candlestick you typically see at a market top. In addition to the bearish candlestick there was a weak 'sell' trigger in the MACD for the S&P (a strong 'sell' candlestick comes when the trigger occurs below the bullish zero line). The trendline for

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