Showing posts from January, 2006

Trade Ideas: TECD

Small handle-on-handle formation (support for the smaller 3-week handle can be found at $40). The larger handle holds support at $39; a confirmation of the $33.04/$33.80 double bottom from which resistance was set at $39. Projected target for the formation is $45 which is near November 2004 highs. Tech Data Corporation provides information technology products, logistics management, and other value-added services worldwide. It distributes microcomputer hardware and software products, including peripherals, systems, networking, and software to approximately 90,000 value-added resellers, corporate resellers, retailers, direct marketers, and Internet resellers. TECD Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas Follow up from Jan 23rd

The Trade Ideas software did its job; strong performerances from FCX and RESC were countered by losses in SVU and VIP. The net average return of the eight stocks was lower than the market indices (2.09%), but this has been one of the rare times when the stock picks have underperformed the markets. Trade Ideas

The Cramer factor; December 1st - January 30th

It is not hard to get an opinion on Jim Cramer. But it is hard to find how well his picks perform once the short term hype wears off. I will try to do a regular spot on the performance of Cramer's lightning round bull picks, but it should be known there are caveats; [1] When I come home from work I switch on the TV to be greeted by Jim frothing at the mouth over something (I usually have CNBC on in the morning for want of something better; sometimes the previous nights Daily Show fits the bill if I have missed it). (Un)Fortunately Jimbo's Mad Money show clashes with a Seinfeld rerun and the real Kramer is more enjoyable to watch. [2] Because of [1] and I am depending on the excellent Madd Money blog for the archived data. Unfortunately, I can't vouch for its accuracy - one of the stock symbols it had listed for Jim's December 1st show was incorrect and came up with an error, others may come up with totally unrelated stocks to the ones on the show [3] I am only going

Trade Ideas: WY

Pushing a solid breakout of $69 resistance and sits a few cents shy of new multi-year highs ($71). The point-n-figure chart has registered a triple top breakout and looks set to drive higher. With stops on a loss of $67 this carries relatively low capital risk. The 2.9% dividend yield is a bonus. Weyerhaeuser Company principally engages in the growing and harvesting of timber, as well as in the manufacture, distribution, and sale of forest products principally in the United States and Canada. WY Trade Ideas


Friday's buying was the antidote to the previous Friday's selling but it was not all plain sailing; the S&P fell a few points short of reclaiming the prior's week losses, while the NASDAQ 100 has some work left to do. Running in the tech indices favor was the gap to new highs in the semiconductor index and solid gains in the NASDAQ . Volume dropped from Thursday's accumulation day, but it was above average - driven in part by short covering, and sideline money joining the buyer's fray. Last week belonged to the bulls, but next week could see the bears flex their wings. Why? Bearish divergences in the MACD trigger line (covering the last two months) exist in all markets except the Russell 2000 . Slow stochastics have dropped from overbought levels; a sign of weakening bullish strength in the tech markets [ NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ] and large caps [ Dow and S&P ]. The semiconductor index may have closed on a 'shooting star'; much will depend on wha


I hope to get a more detailed post up later. For now, these are the picks as drawn up by Trade Ideas.


An increase in buying momentum from yesterday; today's picks took 3 minutes to compile by the Trade-Ideas software. ROL : Shaping the right-hand-side of a 7-month base. The 50-day MA lurks close to $20.50, a good place to put stops. Buy break of $21.50. A move to $22 triggers a double top breakout on the point-n-figure chart with a target of $25.50 SMSC : Developing a broad consolidation triangle (about half-way through at this stage). Hugging the 50-day MA at $30.88. Weekly chart will mark a breakout on a move to $34, $35 will be necessary for the point-n-figure chart. Look for rally to $50. ASTSF : Weekly chart shows a large base spanning nearly 2 years. $8 is the line in the sand for bulls, a break of which should see the start of a right-hand-base to challenge $16.50. The point-n-figure chart holds a price target of $14.75. If buying here looking to run stops on a loss of $7. AVAN : A steady sub-$5 performer. Looks to have found support at $1.90. Resistance at $2.10. Weekly cha

Opinion: Question reply

The market is getting more and more interesting in the last week and I?m keeping a clear head despite my bearish bias. Any thoughts? Edgar, 2D Trading After Friday's big sell off it is easy to be bearish and today the NASDAQ 100 started to show the kind of follow through downside typical of the last two days of light gains. But I am not 100% we have our top (I do think we are close going on the relative positions of the NASDAQ Summation index, NASDAQ stocks over the 50-day MA, and NASDAQ stocks on PnF buys indices) although I would look to calling a top a more technical issue than a working, trading issue (i.e. if you have made money since October now is as good as time as any to bank it). From a workable trading issue, last week's highs are a good barometer as to whether one should be in the market or not e.g. a move above 2,330 in the NASDAQ has little resistance until it gets to 2,800 - so why sweat peanuts now by buying at 2,260. The problem as I see it for the bears was


Today's selection took 15 minutes for the software to collate so there has been a slow down in the rate at which Buy candidates have appeared over the last couple of days. PNC : Nice dummy entry with a stop on a loss of today's lows. Last week's gap is holding which is good news for bulls. Short term traders can look for a test of $68.25. Ride the trend. MW : Found support at the 200-day MA. Watch for a challenge of $38 and a likely 'Golden Cross' of the 50-day MA/200-day MA. Point-n-figure target of $49 looks reasonable CFK : Still working through a $13-16 base. Relatively illiquid but with the 50-day MA approaching it may find some impetus to bounce as it did in October 2005. ACAD : Moving up strong in the last half hour. Watch for close over $11.00. Real action will come above $11.50. Watch this intraday and look to buy pullback; $10.56 would be an ideal entry HQH : Building towards a 5-month base breakout as part of a larger 2-year base with resistance at $20. P

Collective 2: KOPN out

A promising start to the day has in the last 30 minutes turned into a wave of selling, crashing throguh my protective stop. The rate of decline was in part contributed by stops placed below $5.50, but usually stop sales are followed by a quick recovery - but not in this instance. Disappointed to see this one go.


Based on the modest bullish action over the last couple of days it looks like markets are set to retrace all of Friday's losses (only then will we have an idea if there is to be a follow through recovery). Some nice picks from the Trade Ideas software IYM : Finding support at the 50-day MA, run stops on a loss of $52. Bears could argue for a rounding top but such action would be negated on a break of $54. Point-n-figure target of $80 looks reachable as part of the (still in play) November 28th ascending triple top breakout. MECA : Climbs back above the 50-day MA on a PPO 'Buy' signal. Confirmed support at $7.00, run a stop on a loss of $6.84 HTLD : Low liquidty gives way to wide intraday swings. If it can hold the break of $21.35 into the close it will have merits. Weekly chart shows some nice basing action. GGG : Shaping a bullish flag with confirmed support at $37.70. The weekly chart shows a confirmed double bottom at $31.03/$30.88 following the weekly close above $38. $

Collective2: PRFT sold

I raised the stop following Friday's selling and today that stop took the position out for a small gain ($320 on 1,000 shares). I have added a new stock to replace it, but the majority of the portfolio remains in cash. It should be noted the newsletter pick holds a lower stop of $9.28 and remains in play; this is simply a stop hit for my managed portfolio. Click the link below to get these trade signals in real-time


Just to get this out before the market closes;


Bears stamped over the Bulls party, thrashing 2006 gains and leaving bull traps in all markets bar the Russell 2000 and semiconductor index. Unfortunately the semiconductor index was the biggest % loser from Friday's selling (of my watched indices) and it remains to be seen if it can hold the early January breakout. As has been the theme for the New Year, the Dow was the chief loser of the major indices, breaking below Fibonacci and 50-day MA support leaving the 200-day MA at 10,541, and October lows of 10,220, as the watch areas for future support. If you want to scrape the bottom of the barrel one could argue for 50-day support in the NASDAQ and S&P . The lower volume trading in the NASDAQ is a mixed blessing; fear selling, or complacency? Fibonacci support also comes to the rescue in the NASDAQ and the semiconductor index, but the NASDAQ 100 doesn't have much to look forward too other than January lows of 1,634 - some 40 points away from where it is now. Even w

Subscriber request; SUF analysis

Looking at SUF again, of course what else, I went back and looked at some charts of XMSR and TASR. I noticed how those stocks only had very little one or two day "cooling off" periods like we have seen with SUF. Can you make a connection with charts like that. I know this thing is overbought and needs to come back in, but maybe all we get are these little one day rests? The problem with stocks in these excited states is greed takes over from rational investing (or trading); investors create support and resistance; traders add volatility. For investors the question is whether this company is fairly valued at almost 4 times the price it was in September 2005? How will the UAE deal turn a company which has never turned a profit into profitability? If the average competitor's P/E is 21 (according to Yahoo) then SUF would need to earn around $0.93 a share to warrant current prices on a fundamental basis, or bank around $52 million in net income per year with SUF's 56.8

Collective2: January update

. The following stocks were added to the model portfolio this week; PRFT which featured in my free service for January 17th; and KOPN a Subscriber pick from January 19th (subscription needed to view link) . Friday's selling did leave a dent in this portfolio, but not to the same extent at which the markets suffered.

Trade-Ideas: Follow up from January 13th

Once again the Trade-Ideas picks vastly outperformed the market as a whole. Every market logged at least a 2% loss for the week, but only 2 of the 8 Trade-Ideas picks were losers. Even accounting for a maximum gain on the week; the markets logged an average loss of 0.07% against a 2.96% gain for the 8 picks. GW as the weeks best performer.

Trade Ideas: PLA

Markets look to be pricing two days of selling for the price of one. Rising Oil price was again the excuse for the selling but it was not all doom and gloom. The Trade-Ideas software was chugging out a number of stocks; one which is developing a bull flag is PLA. Larger resistance lurks at $15.80, but a move to $16 would complete a 2-year cup-and-handle pattern. Playboy Enterprises, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and distribution of multimedia lifestyle entertainment for adult audiences worldwide.

Trade-Ideas: Follow up from January 12th

Much stronger returns for the week ago selection, only IGR was the disappointment. 75% profitability with an average return of 2.12% (not bad for a weeks work), and the potential to have earned an average return of 4.24% compared to market losses for this same time period. Even with these gains GAIA looks good value and CTCI is a few cents shy of a breakout

How good is Google?

First off; I am neither long or short Google stock, Google is set as my homepage and is the search engine of choice for me, and 'Blogger' hosts this Blog - in summary, I like (love!) using Google. However, I was reviewing my advertisement expenses and had foolishly neglected to monitor my campaign costs [a seperate issue to do with Adwords Dominator which hadn't picked up on one of my new campaigns and so I 'forgot' about it; now I am back on the web end monitoring and no longer using the Dominator software] which led to me running up a relatively hefty bill (emphasis on the 'relatively'). On paper, my ads had generated a handy 250 click throughs - but unfortunately not one conversion. Part of the blame sits on my end, i.e. a poor sales pitch, but I do know of at least one subscriber who joined because of my Google ad so it is not a total dud. Unfortunately, it is becoming harder for me to justify the continued cost of using Adwords to promote my site when t

Collective2: PRFT added

I featured this stock for free on November 29th and again for January 17th . Added it to the Collective2 portfolio on January 17th. The stock continues to perform strongly. I have also added another stock to the portfolio today and I will give it a couple of days to see how will it do before posting it here (so far it is up on the day).

Trade Ideas: KF

Momentum play with a developing bullish engulfing pattern shaping off $37 support. Also support a 2.3% dividend yield. Run stops on a break of the rising support trendline. The Korea Fund, Inc. operates as a closed-end, nondiversified management investment company. It primarily invests in Korean securities. The fund’s portfolio of investments includes investments in companies operating in the information technology, financials, consumer discretionary, telecommunications services, materials, industrials, consumer staples, and energy.

Trade-Ideas: Follow up from January 11th

Although the markets took a pasting over the intervening week the Trade-Ideas selection held up well to the selling. 50% of the 8 trades was profitable compared to no profitability in the indices. SHW ended up as the trade of the week.

Collective 2: MWY 1-day loss

Jumped the gun a little early on this one. Looked to buy Friday's hammer at what seemed like good support (as I illustrated to my subscribers ). But the play was stopped out for a small loss. Probably has better merits today given the small doji right on the 200-day MA but I won't be biting again. For today's action click here for Stockchart Gallery chart.

Trade Ideas: BKUNA

Bullish engulfing pattern on a breakout from a flag supported by heavy volume. Price action followed strong earnings . Nearby resistance at $28.46 - a break from which will complete the base and drive the next phase of the rally. Golden cross (50-day cross above the 200-day MA) was an added bonus for the bulls. Projected target of $36. BankUnited Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for BankUnited FSB that provides consumer and commercial banking products and services to consumers and businesses in Florida.

Trade Ideas: DE

Trading through a small handle with an upcoming MACD 'Buy' trigger. Run stops on a loss of $67.50 and either buy, or add, on a break of $71. Weekly chart shows heavy resistance at $73 and this could be a concern. As for a price target - the point-n-figure is of little help as it holds to a bearish price target of $40 (the chance of this has long since negated following the rally off $57). A projected target is $89. 2.2% dividend yield is a modest bonus. Deere & Company engages in the manufacture and sale of agricultural and commercial equipment worldwide. It primarily operates in three segments: Agricultural Equipment, Commercial and Consumer Equipment, and Construction and Forestry.


A quiet close to a quiet week which will have nicely satisfied the bulls. The NASDAQ had the most interesting action as the 2,330 target many commentators were speculating as an upside target was handily met. Bulls will be looking at the tantalizing proposition of 2,850-3,000 (the next resistance level after 2,330). It looks far fetched, but there are enough skeptics out there (me included) to drive such a rally. However, I don't see enough room in the secondary tech indicators [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] as they stand now to fuel the current advance to this level, but if the next 3-4 month correction was to sharply reset these indicators to deeply oversold levels (e.g. a $NASI around -900, a $NAA50 in the 300s, and a $BPCOMPQ in the 30s) with a corresponding retracement in the NASDAQ to 2,000 or higher then I wouldn't be laughing. The NASDAQ 100 is not as well placed as the NASDAQ with 2,074 resistance still in play, and although the semiconductor index has per


I should be back to the mid-market posting next week (car struggles have kept my sidelined for the past couple of days). This is Friday's end-of-market picks from the Trade-Ideas software. AUO : Holding combined support of the 50- and 200-day MA. Pressured by $15 resistance (which had been support during the summer of 2005). Next resistance at $17 and then there should be room for a run to $24. One to watch GW : Last few days have seen some above average buying but the stock remains range bound between $7 and $8.50. The 200-day MA has risen to meet the trading range and this may support a push above resistance. NVG : Solid weekly chart with an important break of $14.50 resistance on improving money flow. A move to $15.50 will put this at multi-year highs. Looks primed for a run. BEZ : Another solid base performer. The move above $26.75 looks significant and trading action over the last 5-weeks has the making of a nice 'handle' to the year long base. Strong merits. INLD : Th


The correction in today's markets didn't prevent the current selection of stocks from gaining on the day. UL : Chief resistance lurks at $42.35 as part of a weekly cup-and-handle pattern. A move to $43 will trigger a triple top breakout. Stops on loss of 50-day MA. IGR : Bullish hammer which looks good in the short term but it may struggle to break $17.50. Solid weekly uptrend. GEL : $12 is the line in the sand (see weekly chart). Some strong volume over the last couple of months. Point-n-figure target of $17.50. CTCI : Thinly traded and shaping a crude triangle on the weekly chart. Improving technical strength but perhaps not the best of the picks here. CMS : Closed over 200-day MA as it works a small handle. Breakout buyers will wait for a move over $15. Resistance at $16.65. Stock has enjoyed strong gains from $8 so this may consolidate a little longer. MAFB : Handle between $41.50-$43.50. Big resistance at $44.50 stretching back over 2 years; first step is $43.50 though. On


The software wasn't short on potential candidates and this selection was made from closing data. CKH : Bounding along the 50-day MA. Sell off from November has been retraced on increasing money flow, but resistance at $74 could be problematic. AIB : Weekly chart is of more interest. Large yearly consolidation with $45 resistance. A break of $45 would project a target of $54. MMC : Another stock which has a more interesting weekly chart. Huge sell off from 2004 is shaping up for a retracement. Buy volume break of $33 for a move to $41. SHW : Working through a $42-48 base. Improving money flow favors another test of $48. Point-n-figure chart projects a target of $57. DIGE : Small symmetrical triangle on weekly chart which has consolidated the PPO indicator to a 'buy' signal. Rising money flow an added bonus. Point-n-figure target holds to $20.00 but a move to $32 would trigger a double top breakout RSCR : Slow and steady advancer. 50-day MA has held support nicely. Point-n-fi

Returned from travels

Just a quick note to let people know I have returned from my trip and will be posting later today. Pleased to see the market hold up well into the middle of January.

Australia update III

The big money traders returned as the NASDAQ , semiconductor index, and Russell 2000 , created breakouts on higher volume. This is the form of leadership from which bull markets are made. There was little change in the tech secondary indicators [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] with the $NASI holding off its 5-day EMA buy trigger. Large caps were little changed on the day, trading flat on lighter volume. Bulls are making a better fist of things than was attempted in December. Breakouts will have merit here although I am holding off the addition of fresh candidates until I return to Hawaii.

Australia update II

Short term traders would have got exactly what they wanted with the tests of December highs. Intermediate and long term traders could have been satisfied with some resistance breaks (even if December highs were not breached). In addition, the $BPCOMPQ followed the $NAA50 by crossing above its 5-day EMA - although technical confirmation from the MACD is still needed. Volume in all markets dropped from yesterday's - not necessarily a bad thing, but in the light of a test of major resistance it would have been better to see this higher. 'Buy' triggers in on-balance-volume (a sign of accumulation) were apparent in the NASDAQ , Dow , NASDAQ 100 , and S&P - but none of these markets have signalled a MACD 'buy'. All of these markets sit on the verge of new yearly highs so don't be surprised to see some weakness into the close of the week as the two days of gains are digested. Wednesday's trading completed the last day of the 'Santa rally' which gave

Australia update I

The next few days worth of postings will be coming from a rather gloomy Australia; regular posting will resume from next Tuesday (Hawaii time). The Fed kicked off the last two days of the 'Santa rally', and the first day of the New Year with news it may soon stop interest rate hikes. The injection of demand reversed what had been a poor start for the markets, but the buying wasn't enough to break through December resistance. The 50-day MAs held as support with the NASDAQ , Dow , S&P , and Russell 2000 closing above their 20-day MAs with only the NASDAQ 100 shy of this intermediate term support level. There should be sufficient demand to see a move to December resistance which would satisfy short term traders. Intermediate and long term traders need to wait for the last 4 weeks of consolidation to break to the upside on heavy volume before joining the fray. Tuesday's action was a step in the right direction, but interestingly enough it did not bring big changes i

Traveling until Jan 12th

I should have Wi-Fi access at my destination, but if I don't then updates will be limited until I return. Have a Great New Year.


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