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Showing posts from July, 2017

Minor Selling

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Today's action ranked as bearish cloud cover after last week's bearish reversal. However, as these reversals came in beneath last week's highs the significance of this selling is less. Volume was also lighter. The S&P triggered a 'sell' in its On-Balance-Volume but it's well above breakout support.

Tech At Support. Small Caps Struggle

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After Thursday's selling there was more downside on Friday which put further pressure on support. The indices best placed to take advantage were the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. The Nasdaq touched 6,350 support for the second day in a row. Selling volume was down on Thursday's but as selling didn't violate Thursday's low there is an opportunity for an aggressive long. However, day's like Friday aren't typically bullish but until the market proves otherwise the risk:reward isn't too bad for bulls. Buyers of the Nasdaq can set stops below 6,335. Technicals are bullish. An opportunity to take a chance? The Nasdaq 100 is at rising support with a stop on a loss of 5,865. The Semiconductor Index is trading inside the wide bearish engulfing pattern from Thursday. There is a 'sell' trigger in the CCI along with a loss in relative performance against the Nasdaq 100. The convergence of 20-day and 50-day MAs is an opportunity for bulls to counter the tr

Bulls Enjoy Volume Buying

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While most of the work was done premarket there was enough demand in Market morning gaps to register higher volume accumulation. Best of the action came in Small Caps.  The Russell 2000 had looked like it was going to drift back to 1,420 and maybe the 50-day MA but instead, buyers took the breakout further from this support level (further squeezing shorts). There is no defined upside target but February's rally pushed the index 10% above the 200-day MA; a similar move would see a test of 1,500.

Tech Gaining Momentum. Small Caps Recover.

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Tech markets continued the good work from Friday as buyers continued to bid up the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Large Caps posted small losses but this was more about attention elsewhere than any Large Cap specifics. The Nasdaq experienced a mini-breakout from the consolidation over the last 3 days (traders on the hourly time frame may find some joy here) which keeps the index on course to test larger upper channel resistance. Technicals are net bullish but its relative performance against peer indices which is doing particularly well; Large Caps in particular.

Good Close For Markets Bar Small Caps

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Bulls were not to give up the breakout gains from earlier in the week and with the exception of the Russell 2000 it was a decent finish for markets. Action in the Russell 2000 was only disappointing because it was unable to hold on to early day gains.  The spike high may mark resistance over the coming days as Friday's candlestick was a typical reversal marker. Technicals are healthy, although the index is underperforming relative to Tech and Large Caps.

Small Caps Breakout

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It has taken a few days for Small Caps to make their move but today was the day the Russell 2000 joined other indices in mounting a breakout. It was a clean breakout supported by positive technical strength - putting to bed the June 'bull trap'. Watch for the second round of stop-whips with an intraday move (and recovery) below 1,430.

Breakouts Hold

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While little happened over the last couple of days since the breakouts, enough was done to hang on to these gains. Tech had the best of the action, pushing away from support and consolidating the bullish position. Volume wasn't spectacular but not surprising given the summer season.

Breakouts Abound

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The week finished with some tasty looking breakouts in Large Cap and Tech Indices. Best of the action was given over to Large Caps with volume perhaps the most disappointing aspect of these breakouts. The S&P closed the week out with a respectable breakout on a new ADX 'buy' trigger. This followed a MACD trigger 'buy' earlier in the week. Monday will be about defending 2,450 and staying above that mark at close of business. Long traders should play for a move to upper channel resistance.

Tech Market Technicals Turn Net Positive

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Two days of gains have helped re-establish the bullish technical picture for tech indices, Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. While the improvement was welcomed it didn't come without a price. The Nasdaq broke through declining resistance but also left it itself wedged beneath the former rising channel.  If there is a chance for shorts, then tomorrow could be it.

Semiconductors Find Some Traction

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Since my last update, there was a significant break and piecemeal recovery across many markets. Not all markets suffered to the same degree and new leadership could emerge. The Semiconductor Index made steady gains after suffering the largest profit sweep in June. The bearish engulfing pattern remains the dominant pattern but the index managed to return above the 20-day and 50-day MAs (not to mention, the former rising channel). Relative performance improved against the Nasdaq 100 but it hasn't yet challenged the 'bull trap' created after the bearish engulfing pattern.

Opposites Attract

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On a day where losses were recovered and gains lost it was more of the same for indices. The index I'm watching most for leads is the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 has languished for many months but is showing signs of strength in what could turn out to be a very good second half of the year for the index.  Today saw losses which dropped the index back to rising support (a fresh buying opportunity?) but relative performance lost a little ground. Further losses would keep the index stuck inside its range and therefore be less attractive for buyers.

Weak Indices Feel The Pain

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Heading into the July 4th holiday and indices experienced a mix of reactions.  Large Caps came out relatively unscathed with only a minor reaction to last week's selling. The S&P remains caught inside its tight trading range since the start of June. There is an On-Balance-Volume 'buy' trigger but other indicators like the MACD and ADX are bearish.

What Bulls Giveth, Bears Taketh Away

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I was 'out-of-office' Thursday when bears came in and ripped up Wednesday's recovery gains. Friday saw some indices give up a little more but the damage was done the day before. The Nasdaq effectively confirmed the channel breakdown and kept the June 'bull trap' in play. The 50-day MA was undercut but there is room to recover on Monday. Technicals finished last week net bearish. Friday's action sets up a move to the slower rising trendline.

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