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Showing posts from March, 2017

Small Caps Advance

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There were small gains across markets, but it was the Russell 2000 which benefited the most. Today's gain managed to push past the 20-day and 50-day MAs on a fresh MACD trigger 'buy'.  Next up is a 'buy' trigger in the relative relationship between Russell 2000 and Nasdaq.

Rally Slows But Not Dead

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The Swing Low continues to play out with small gains in lead markets. There is still resistance in play, but this supply is been consumed by the day. Trading volume was light too. The S&P is at resistance from the March swing low, but today's gain did little to get past this. Stochastics are bullish, but other technicals are negative and the last two days of didn't change this.  While bears may think there is an angle to work, the most likely outcome is for a gain which returns a challenge of 2,400.

Rallies Come Through

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Bulls were able to deliver across the board gains, helping to position yesterday's action as a swing low. Weakness at this point would offer itself as a buying opportunity, but markets wouldn't tolerate more than a couple of days of losses if they were to go down this route. The S&P is at resistance of the prior swing low and the 20-day MA, but today's action is looking good for an upside break tomorrow? Technicals are firmly in the red and need more than today's gain to fix them.

Mixed bag of tricks; but good chance of market swing lows

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The damage was done premarket and value buyers were quick to take advantage. The index which benefited the most was the Nasdaq. It started today just above the 50-day MA and rallied off that. Volume wasn't great and the technical picture didn't really improve, but action like today's can prove to be a good starting point for a swing low.

Semiconductor Index Again At Resistance

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All indices were again testing resistance with small gains, but not enough to challenge a break of supply. Shorts have been presented an avenue of opportunity in the Semiconductor Index with a bearish black candlestick at the convergence of the former rising channel, and the hashed blue line connecting the swing highs dating back to December.  Technicals are a little scrappy, but there is still a MACD trigger 'sell' alongside a 'sell' trigger in CCI.

Indecision Strikes

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It was no real surprise to see indices slow down in their recovery. Across the board doji mark a balance between buyers and sellers. The one index which bucked the trend a little was the Russell 2000. It staged a modest recovery which brought it back to former support turned resistance. However, technicals remain firmly bearish, and will stay this way even if there are additional gains.

Semiconductors Recover at 20-day MA

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Yesterday's selling didn't follow through with additional losses, instead, indices dug in at lows and managed to recover some of yesterday's selloff.  The best recovery came from the Semiconductor Index. It gained over 1% as it bounced off its 20-day MA. However, it wasn't enough to stop a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and CCI.

Seniconductor Shorts Gifted Their Positions

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For those who took advantage of the resistance test in the Semiconductor Index; there was a picture perfect test of the hashed blue line resistance and secondary break of former rising channel support.  The Semiconductor Index finished bang on the 20-day MA so there may be a little (big?) bounce tomorrow. If buyers can't defend the 20-day MA then the 50-day MA is next.

Slow Start to Spring

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Further indecision in the markets as a lack of participation kept volume and intraday price changes to a minimum. The biggest hit came to the Russell 2000. It lost just over 0.5% as profit taking struck the index more so than the Nasdaq and S&P. It wasn't a significant reversal, but it keeps dip buyers on their toes.

Nasdaq Volatility at New Lows

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While the Nasdaq has reached new highs, the VXN has pushed to lows not seen in over 20 years. This complacency makes it difficult to know how long this lack of fear can go on. The one caveat is that as a monthly chart and any uptick in volatility could take years before it tops out; how will Trump trigger this collapse?

Buyers Take Advantage of Russell 2000 Discount

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Bulls are looking to build swing lows with some respectable buying across markets. Best of the market action went to the Russell 2000, gaining 1.5% with a close near today's highs.  The gain was enough to return the index above the 50-day MA, but there wasn't much technical improvement.

Russell 2000 Under Modest Pressure

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Glass Half Full or Half Empty? There wasn't a whole lot to today's action.  The Russell 2000 had the worst of it, but it still managed to stage a small recovery into the close. The index finished above support with technicals negative. A bullish rally would nicely set up a swing low and could see a run to test 1,414. Shorts would want to keep stops tight (measure risk) to the 50-day MA at 1,376.

Tentative Gains

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Not a whole lot to say about today. The Semiconductor Index gained nearly 1% as it pushed a new multi-year high, but most of the gains were achieved by the open and it didn't add too much after that. However, it did keep shorts at bay for another day (resistance remains former channel support).

Small Gains On Accumulation

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Markets finished the week with an accumulation day on Friday, with bulls coming in at 20-day MAs for the S&P and Nasdaq.  The Russell 2000 also dug in, although buyers worked with no clear support level, but Friday's finish may offer an opportunity for a swing low to develop if there is some upside on Monday. The S&P worked a rally off its 20-day MA, but did so in the absence of accumulation. The 'sell' trigger in the MACD hasn't been reversed, but other technicals are still healthy.

Buyers Come Back To 20-Day MAs

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With indices experiencing small changes, 20-day MAs are starting to look like a defensive point for bulls to work the next rally. The Nasdaq finished higher after a defensive push off its 20-day MA. This didn't make any significant changes to the technical picture, but it does suggest the possibility a new swing low is in play.

Small Caps Accelerate Losses

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A mixed day with most indices experiencing minimal change. The only index to come out feeling blue was the Russell 2000.  Yesterday's selling confirmed a 'bull trap' and today saw some follow through with sellers continuing to pressure. The next rally will be critical; will it be attacked shorts? Or will bulls breeze past 1,414? Other indices will be looking to the Russell 2000 for leads.

Small Caps Slow Morph a Bull Trap

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It was another quiet day for most indices, but the Russell 2000 dropped into a potential 'bull trap' situation.  The Russell 2000 experienced further weakness with a 'sell' trigger in the +DI/-DI with Slow Stochastics [39,1] just above the bullish midline - now the last line defense of the net bullish picture for this index.

Status Quo

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There wasn't a whole lot of change in markets with the Russell 2000 edging back to support. Small Caps remains the most vulnerable to an increase in profit taking with the 50-day MA playing as the last line of support. If there is a loss in such support watch for it to spread to other indices which are holding up better.

Weakness confined to Breadth Metrics

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Friday's action stemmed whatever profit taking was in play from Thursday. It kept bulls well placed to attack again Monday, barring some early morning Trump Tweet Disaster. After the Winter lull, the S&P kicked off the spring in style with solid gains. All lead technicals are on firm 'buy' sganal. If bears are to gain a foothold it will likely require a retest of highs to confirm a switch - so bulls should have a second chance to get out if there is any concerted profit taking here.

You Can't Keep a Good Rally Down

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Bears get a sniff of something, then Bulls come along and blow the nascent opportunity out of the water. It was a big day for indices - the Russell 2000 in particular, as buyers jumped in early and played hard for the day. The S&P tagged the upper 10% band and is close to the 15% of historic high prices dating back to 1950. The last time the S&P was up at these levels it was May 2013 - which ultimately proved to the middle of a rally which lasted another 2 years.

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