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Showing posts from February, 2007

Trade Ideas: FRZ, VMI, WCN, PRA, RHD, TNP, WG, CBR

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Trader's toes get dipped back in the water and today was unlikely to have seen any great retracement to yesterday's selling. There were a number of positives - most notably the confirmation of support of November-January channel support in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, not to mention the picture perfect test of support in the Russell 2000 rising channel. In the short term I would look for bounces to Fibonacci retracements; for the Dow this is around 12,525; the Nasdaq it is 2,481; the Russell 2000 it's 812; and for the S&P look to 1,433. Expect shorts to get dirty around these levels. Long term, I think it is time for a test of the 200-day MAs. Internals are still well inside overbought territory and it will take more convincing selling to bring these internals down. A reflection of the decent buying (considering) witnessed today was found in the Trade Ideas scan; the first 8 picks covered a time span of 10 minutes ; with the "Fab-20" of 8 picks making 20 appeara

Collective2: CMS out

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Although my Collective2 portfolio performance since November could best be described as "disappointing" - given I had opted to keep the bulk of funds in cash - it was a relief to see my only remaining position, CMS Energy Corp ( CMS ), stopped out for a +$130 gain on a 250 share lot . Yesterday's "hanging man" was the warning, today's break was the confirmation. The portfolio is all cash and waiting for oversold internals before getting equity heavy once more. Collective2

Wipeout!

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Buyers of volatility would have had a great day but for market bulls it was a big slap in the face. The end-of-year 2006-2007 rising channels are no more, but for Tech and Small caps there is still (former) horizontal channel support dating back to December 2006 to look for (indeed, Tech made its small bounce from this zone). The Trade Ideas scan was obviously slow - but I was surprised to see 8 picks coming in under the hour mark at 52 minutes (a really slow day would require the whole day to come up with 8 stocks). Tomorrow will likely be dull as traders assess what damage has been done... Bonds and Questar ( STR ) were the only Trade Ideas picks breaking the 20 appearance barrier: Trade Ideas

Wall Streets Level Playing Field

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The "Whisper Figure" in play. Note the heavier volume buying pre-earnings. This was picked up by my scan given the relative volume and price breakout - but I am sure there are plenty more like this traveling under the radar. Fallond

Stocks which may fall short of the grade

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The following two picks are current newsletter picks of mine which have enjoyed solid gains, but are looking vulnerable to a reversal should lows of the bearish candlesticks be broken on a closing basis. Similar weakness was found in other picks of mine, but those stocks had not the gains these two have enjoyed of late: Hanger Orthopedic: Dana Shipping : Fallond

Trade Ideas: NG

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Another wave of selling pressure is threatening channel and breakout support in the indices. The Trade Ideas scan is reflecting some of this worry with 8 picks covering a time span of 16 minutes and only one pick, Novagold Resources ( NG ), breaking the 20 appearance barrier for the day (although there is still an hour left of trading). If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Weekend Commentary from Fallondpicks.com

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A relatively uneventful end to the week as another test of channel support in the Dow held into the close of business on Friday. Unfortunately, the heavier volume decline in the Dow registered a distribution day and a MACD trigger 'sell'. The MACD 'sell' signal was enough to create a fresh bearish divergence in the indicator - which in turn, could be the cue to see a break of channel support on Monday. The NASDAQ 100 fell just shy of a breakout, but higher volume at resistance is a sign of (bearish) churning, so there is no guarantee for a breakout early next week. Working in support of the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ were the continued gains in the semiconductor index. In the short term the semiconductor index is looking a little rich, but there was enough leg work done by the bulls to shifts its intermediate picture (3 weeks - 3 month outlook) in favor of long positions. This in turn, should translate to gains for the NASDAQ 100 and NASDAQ . The Ru

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review

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The real mover on the week was the semiconductor index. What had the stockcharters got to say about the week's action. As a starter, Richard Crockett's list of breakout stocks is the number 1 ranked list according to hits - 37,543 to date and jumps all the "Hall of Fame" authors (Ignore the Vote count - foot traffic speaks louder than click traffic - Chip Anderson are you listening!). His first page has a number of interesting stocks; take a look at Barrick Gold Corp (ABX) and Abbott Laboratories (ABT) as examples. Joe Reed has gone for a 'top' in the S&P with a 'sell' trigger in full stochastics and the Wm%R indicator: His next focus was GLD, although I don't remember seeing this chart during the actual 'buy' trigger - but it is a nice chart to repeat: His other charts on energy and oil were much as he said before. Mitchell Meana has been showing a Nasdaq 100, 18-day cycle chart. By his reckoning, Monday (or early next week) should

January performance part II

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[I started this piece last Friday, before the meltdown - so there has been a little 'updating' since...] For the next step of my analysis I took a look at some of the technical signals and rated their performance to my earlier measures of 1%, 2%, 5%, and 8% risk - looking for a 3:1 reward to risk return. The first figure gives the overall return (based on average return per trade, for all trades combined) for my free and paid-for picks from my newsletter (I should add, this does not include the stocks from the Trade Ideas scan listed on my blog - that will be a seperate article). The post-meltdown figures look like this: The biggest change came from the performance drop in the use of 5% and 8% risk as those stops were most vulnerable to the weeks selling, whereas the lower risk sample either had reached their targets, or were stopped out prior to Tuesday. There was no change to the 1% risk, and minimal change to the 2% risk. When the figures are broken down to stocks which were

Trade Ideas: CAH, PVA, GCF, ATR, INT

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Another mild down day for the markets, but there was no real technical damage done (i.e. rising channels remained intact by the close). The Trade Ideas scan showed cautious buying with the first 8 picks covering a time span of 14 minutes with only 5 stocks breaking the 20 appearance barrier over the course of the day. They were: If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

The Real Hustle

I came across this series of videos from Fat Pitch Financials . This one is about crowd psychology - selling you something you don't want, for more than its worth (aka Wall Street!). Enjoy!

Trade Ideas: DJP and BRG

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A significant slow down in the buying as the markets threaten to reverse (Nasdaq), or have reversed (Dow) their recent breakouts. However, rising price channels remain intact with plenty of wiggle room down to channel support. Gains in the semiconductor index are significant and should help the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 over the coming days (which will filter through to the other indices). The Trade Ideas scan was not showing strong buying of individual stocks; the first 8 picks covered a time span of 23 minutes and only 2 stocks broke the 20 appearance barrier over the day (up to 3 pm ET). If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: PGJ, GTY, CGI, HB, DOV, HSC, TG, APH

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Another good day for the indices; a breakout in the Nasdaq on higher volume; upside follow through in the Russell 2000 to Friday's breakout; and continued gains in the semiconductor index . Keep an eye on Richard Lehman's rising channel lines - he has outlined new ones for the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. The strength was reflected in the Trade Ideas scan; the first 8 picks covered a time span of 3 minutes and the 8 picks which featured 20 times or more over the course of the day covered a time span of 26 minutes and are presented below: If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Fallondpicks.com: Weekend commentary

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Friday saw a weak breakout in the Russell 2000 (at least a new closing high) as the past five days saw new closing highs for large caps [ S&P and Dow ], combined with decent gains for the tech averages [ NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ], but as yet - no consolidation breakouts for the latter averages. Volume climbed in the Dow , S&P and NASDAQ 100 - but given Friday was an options expiration day the overall volume was very light. There were some technical improvements with the bearish divergence of the MACD trigger line of the NASDAQ breaking, along with a relative strength gain for the NASDAQ 100 over the Dow {Small caps > Tech averages > Large caps = most bullish alignment for the markets} . I have drawn new rising channels for some of the indices in my public Stockchart.com chart list (if you follow the link then please give it your vote by scrolling to the bottom of the screen - it is the only way I know people appreciate the work).

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review

No review this week as family are visiting. FYI. I have set up my feed as a full feed - so please subscribe for my latest postings. If you haven't done so already please visit my own Stockchart.com public list which features market commmentary and a list of my freely available stock picks from Fallondpicks.com . Stockcharts.com Fallondpicks.com

KIVA new loan

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This loan comes courtesy of M. Gattani, NJ, bringing the number of active loans to 15 with 4 paid off loans. If you are interested in receiving my newsletter and wish to give to KIVA, consider buying a KIVA gift certificate and use this a payment for my research. KIVA

Trade Ideas: RGR, GIL, CYN, SUR, HHS, HRH, WGO, NWN

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Another flat day, although small caps had enough clout to at least keep the bears away for another day (even if it can't close at new highs a la large caps). The top 8 stocks on the Trade Ideas scan were selected inside 2 minutes - so there was healthy across the board buying - even if the indices didn't represent this with major point gains. The following 8 stocks, all of which made 20 appearances or more during the day, were selected in an 84 minute period. Not quite the success of recent days: If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: BWP, DKS, EME, LDG, PH, DTC, ZNT, STT

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Little change on the day as neither the Nasdaq or Russell 2000 were able to close at new 52-week highs. However, all indices remain in weak (given ADX is below 20) rising channels: The Trade Ideas, in contrast, was relatively buoyant; 8 picks covered a time span of 4 minutes , with 8 picks appearing over 20 times during the day covering a time span of 15 minutes . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: BDK, SDA, BLK, BKC, OMM, EZA, NSC, BNI

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Better stuff from the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 as large caps push new highs. Disappointed to see small caps struggling in the face of this buying. The Trade Ideas scan was similarly lacking; 8 picks covered a time span of 9 minutes - which is okay, but for the gains we are seeing in the overall market it is a little disappointing. The 8 picks I have selected were choosen over a time span of 36 minutes and all made 20 appearances or more over the course of the day: If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

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