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Showing posts from November, 2006

Trade Ideas: FNB, JGG, RAD, GMT, PCL, HET, CHY, BOE

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The duel between bulls and bears ended up net neutral as neither took the days honors. The Trade Ideas scan was reasonably bullish; 8 picks covered a time span of 9 minutes . Top of the pile in frequency at 38 appearances was Kellwood Co ( KWD ). Of the remaining picks, none climbed over 12 appearances : Nuveen Global Government Enhanced Income Fund ( JGG ), GATX Corp ( GMT ) and Calamos Corp ( CHY ) all managed this feat. Only one pick edged a bullish cross of the 50-day MA by the 20-day MA: Rite Aid Corp ( RAD ) - but this could be a whipsaw signal. The 1-year charts are mixed. Rite Aid ( RAD ) is shaping a scrappy bullish ascending triangle; buy break of $4.85, stops on loss of $4.40, look for move to $5.80. Trend traders can follow the action in Calamos Co. ( CHY ) and Blackrock Global Opportunities ( BOE ). While Harrah's ( HET ) continues to develop a cup-and-handle pattern. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7

Collective2: HA out

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The last position in the Collective2 portfolio was exited into the close of Wednesday's trading to leave the account all cash. I have no immediate plans to add major new positions until tech market internals improve. This is in line with my bearish outlook for the market. Hawaiian Airlines ( HA ) was exited on its raised stop price from November 27th. The 3,000 share lot closed for a +$2,520 profit. Collective2

KIVA: New loan

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Another loaned paid off bringing the total of loans paid to 4 . The new loan can be found below: The current loan portfolio can be found here . KIVA

Trade Ideas: AGP, EEM, R, GD, STD, HET, ELX, HST

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It was a day to get over the shock of yesterday. There was some increase in the volume buying over yesterday's selling, tech averages gaining most in this regard. The Trade Ideas scan bumped up its hit rate with 8 picks covering a more reasonable time span of 22 minutes . Only two of the picks: Amerigroup ( AGP ) and iShares MCSI Emergimg Markets ( EEM ) managed bullish crosses of their 20-day and 50-day MAs inside the last 2 months. General Dynamics ( GD ) was the only pick to manage a bearish cross of these averages. However, General Dynamics ( GD ) was the only pick to make over 20 appearances on the scan, coming in at 29 appearances for the day. Of the 1 year chart, Harrahs ( HET ) looks best positioned to gain following a huge breakout gap in October (which held as support on the subsequent retracement) which led to the development of a handle in a 7-month base. Projected target is $100-105 with a stop on a loss of $75. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-I

Fallondpicks.com commentary

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Hardly a surprise to see the markets get hit after weeks of mini-gains. The degree of losses were a little startling but given this was the first day after the holiday it is a little early to say if today's actions sets the tone for the rest of the year. The NASDAQ was hit with a 'sell' trigger in the MACD; confirming a new bearish divergence in this indicator, but is still able to hold the June-July bullish divergence (at least for now). In addition, the 2.2% loss on the day failed to break the bullish rising channel or the 20-day MA. There is a good chance of seeing support buying over the next few days. The NASDAQ 100 was a little stronger in that there was no MACD 'sell' trigger and at least for now no bearish divergence in this indicator. The semiconductor index fared the best (but was by far the weakest of the tech indices) as it maintained its break of the 200-day MA while holding reasonable technical strength. The Dow and S&P were less fortunate as

Trade Ideas: TLT, LH, PXP, RRC, CAM, NBL, ECA, CI

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No guess as to who won today's battle. Greater damage was done to the large cap indices with downside breaks of 5-month rising channels; tech averages held their rising channels as did small caps (Russell 2000) - the latter index closing right on channel support in a manner similar to what it did at the start of November (and led to a 3-week rally). Unfortunately, the sting in the tail came in the level of buying; unlike previous Trade Ideas scans during down days when the degree of buying usually fell inside 30 minutes , today's buying covered a time span of 6 hours - a considerable time shift (but potentially contrarian bullish). The 20 year treasury bond ( TLT ) was the only pick featuring over the last 3 hours of trading; it pushed 38 appearances . The remaining picks all ran under 20 appearances . Six picks all pushed recent bullish crosses of their 20-day and 50-day MAs: Laboratory America ( LH ), Plains Exploration ( PXP ), Range ( RRC ), Cooper Cameron ( CAM ), Noble

Happy Thanksgiving

Next post will be next week. Just to pass the time. Dumbness at its dumbest (You have been warned). Thanksgiving

Trade Ideas: CIT

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The day before Thanksgiving was never going to throw up a big surprise. The Trade Ideas scan was similarly listless; 8 picks covered a time span of 6 minutes - not bad considering. In terms of frequency, only one stock made the cut at 20 appearances or more: CIT Group ( CIT ). CIT Group is pushing out of a small bull flag/handle; part of a 5-month base. I have dervied a projected target based on the depth of this base. The point-n-figure chart target of $40.00 is looking unlikely given the nature of the July reversal. The current pattern has a strong resemblance to the reversal made in the first part of 2005; particularly at the time of the absolute bottom. Watch for an upcoming "Golden Cross" between the 50-day and 200-day MAs. The stock pays a 1.5% yield. CIT Group, Inc. operates as a global commercial and consumer finance company. The company provides financing solutions, leasing products, and advisory services to clients across approximately 30 industries worldwide. It

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : November 14th

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Another good week all round for the various stock picks; top performance was from my newsletter picks with an average return on the week of +3.03% per trade. Tied were my Trade Ideas scan picks and Jim Cramer's picks at +1.35% a piece, slightly below the market returns of +1.62% . The best individual performance was from Jim's pick NYX, up +10.40% on the week; but the worst performer was also one of his: SBUX, down -5.06% . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap . SPONSORED BY:-

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : November 13th

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A good week all round for the various stock picks. Top of the pile was my Trade Ideas scan with a +3.19% return on the week. The worst performance went to Jim Cramer's Lightning round picks, but even his picks returned a positive +0.52% . The strongest pick was from my newsletter, ARRY , it closed the week up +9.72% . Weakest was Jims, QGEN , ending the week down -7.72% . As long as the rally continues expect the strong performance of individual stocks to continue. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap . SPONSORED BY:-

Collective2: DSX out

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This position was exited on what looks to have been an upcoming dividend adjustment. The new chart for the ex-dividend price does not show a "stop hit" as support wasn't violated. However, the position was exited by Collective2. Today's action was not unduly bearish - even though a 'sell' trigger was given in slow stochatics. Disappointed to see this one gone. The 600 share lot closed for a +$456 profit. Collective2

Trade Ideas SLF

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With markets on the retreat in afternoon trading, the level of buying as seen on the Trade Ideas scan was markedly down; 8 picks covered a time span of 31 minutes . Only one pick was able to make it over 20 appearances : Jones Apparel Group ( JNY ). The one pick which was making a more regular appearance on the scan this afternoon was Sun Life Financial ( SLF ) at 16 appearances . It is not a traditional breakout given the current move reversed off resistance from a rising channel, but this could to shape a handle between $42 and $44. Worst case scenario for bulls is a full retracement to rising channel support, somewhere around $40. As for an upside target, look to $51, which is similar to the point-n-figure target of $52 (part of a November 3rd triple top breakout). The stock pays a 2.5% yield. Sun Life Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides savings, retirement and pension products, and life and health insurance to individuals and groups in Canada, the Un

Fallondpicks.com: Weekend commentary

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More of the same as the various market rallies kept pushing along. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day in the Dow , but not the S&P (or other indices). Small caps [ Russell 2000 ] managed a positive test of 783 support; but lost out against tech averages [ NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ] in terms of relative strength - pushing a more neutral alignment of markets {Tech averages > Small caps > Large caps} . On the flip side, the semiconductor index was able to cling on to its break of the 200-day MA as its supporting technicals continue to improve. Tech market internals [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] were mixed with gains in the $BPCOMPQ and $NASI , but a small loss in the $NAA50 . However, there was no bearish cross of the 5-day EMA in the $NAA50 . It is important to note that bearish divergences in supporting technical indicators remain for these market internals. Also, volatility held bullish wedge support for a fourth day in a row (this is likely bea

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review

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It was a good week for the Stockcharters. The extra leg of the rally was best illustrated by Mitchell Meana and he was right on the money. He has stuck to his target of $44.80 for the Qs, or 2,498 for the Nasdaq - assuming wave 5 is equal to wave 1. Joe Reed has an interesting chart for crude oil; he shows oil trading at a 5-year support line (using a log scale). I am no fan of his self-congratulatory style, but as he would say, "He nailed this one!". A good spot. He is also showing Healthcare bullish percents at resistance, on a reversal in stochastics, relative strength, and the Ultimate Oscillator. Ted Burge starts out with a good market summary: Nov 17th! The PnF Supply and Demand Report is indicating again today the very first signs of some weakness in demand. No hype and no predictons, just watch the pace of stocks moving to buy and sell signals and from X's to O's. A 3 box reversal on a traditional PnF chart is normal price activity. It is all explained in m

Spotting reversals

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Finding the reversal points in the market is the $64,000 question every trader and investor wants to know. But, more important is knowing when to be aggressive or passive when calculating risk exposure to the market. Luckily, there are a number of tools available to help you identify the most likely point these reversals can occur. I concentrate on Nasdaq market internals as the Nasdaq is more likely to lead an overall market reversal than using market internals of large cap indices. There are three Nasdaq internals I focus on: the Nasdaq Summation Index, the Nasdaq Bullish Percents, and the Number of Nasdaq Stocks above their 50-day MA. The Nasdaq Summation Index is a great internal to mark reversals, particularly if a weekly time frame is used (I also use a 5-day EMA trigger line on a daily chart). It is not a perfect market internal as some will testify, but it is a valuable tool. At its simplest, tops occur when the internal reaches zero and above; bottoms occur when the internal r

KIVA 3 new loans

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I have added three more loans to my portfolio based on the most recent set of payments. If you would like to contribute and benefit from receiving my newsletter, then subscribe to my service today. Find out more about KIVA .

Collective2: GG out

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It has been a while since a position was exited from the portfolio. This one followed across the board weakness in precious metal stocks. In this case, Goldcorp ( GG ) turned back from the 200-day MA with an associated 'sell' trigger in short term slow stochastics [14,3]. The 500 share lot closed for a +$1,680 profit. Two positions remain with no intention of adding more at this stage of the proceedings. Collective2

Trade Ideas: ABC, DRH, XL, ORI, EQ, RAH, ARG, BOH

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**I hate Beta.Blogger....** Wrote post - lost post (too many outages with nothing but a small warning at the bottom of the screen to let you know you are not connected - until of course, you go to post... and then its Adios). Also, broken FTP; why can't I upload images direct to the images folder and not have them dumped into the index page like it used to work every time before? Broken word verification for each post - the first time trying invariable fails (I'm not that bad a typist). Impossible to republish just the index page when altering Template. Often hangs during publishing. May or may not publish when it does hang... Beta.blogger is a piece of junk - it should NEVER have gone live. [Oh great! - now the visual verification image is a red x - time to cut and paste the post and refresh the page to get a new one. I'm not joking about this either.... Okay - refreshed page - waited 2 min+ to do this - still red x Yes - Error, Thanks beta.boober, still can't see vis

Trade Ideas: NLC, TD, RA, MTX, PFS, BNE, APF, FUR

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Another day of gains for the markets (it just keeps going!); unfortunately, the buying dropped off from yesterday as the Trade Ideas scan drifted out to 13 minutes for 8 stocks. A few of those picks appeared 22-28 times over the course of the day; Toronto Dominion ( TD ), Minerals Tech ( MTX ) and Browne ( BNE ). Recent bullish crosses between the 50-day and 20-day MAs occurred for Toronto Dominion ( TD ), Reckson Associate Realty ( RA ) and Browne ( BNE ). On the flip side, bearish crosses occurred in Winthrop Realty ( FUR ) and Provident Financial ( PFS ). Reckson Associate Realty ( RA ) has the best long term chart (a continuation of yesterday's gains) with Provident Financial shaping a scrappy, tight handle (stops on loss of $18; buy break of $18.75; point-n-figure target of $24). Other picks are mixed: Trend traders can look to Winthrop Realty( FUR ) and Breakout buyers can buy break of $16 in Browne ( BNE ). If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas softwa

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