Showing posts from January, 2011

Daily Market Commentary: Decline Stalls

After Friday's heavy loss it was no great surprise to see markets recover a little. The S&P made it back above its 20-day MA. MACD weakness picked up a little, but other technicals remained firm. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq wasn't so fortunate. Monday's gain wasn't enough to make it above the 20-day MA. ($COMPQ) via Nasdaq Breadth returned to its bearish ways with the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA losing 55% support on increased technical weakness. ($NAA50R) via And technicals of the Nasdaq Summation Index turning net bearish ($NASI) via It could be argued the Nasdaq 100 has broken from its channel support. ($NDX) via Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 defended its 50-day MA. ($RUT) via Market Breadth is suggesting the intermediate term correction has started and a rally at this point should be sold into. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fal

Five-in-Five: ARBA, COBZ, CWCO, SU, VPRT

The following five stocks were able to buck Friday's sell off by breaking higher on volume: Ariba (ARBA), Coniz (COBZ), Cons Water (CWCO), Suncor Energy (SU) and Vistaprint Limited (VPRT). Has Friday bought these stocks some leeway on further market weakness? Can they maintain their run? Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed for Free with delayed trade signals. You can also view the top-10 best trading strategies for the US, UK, Europe and Rest-of-the-World in the Zignals Trading Strategy Leaderboard . The Leaderboard also supports advanced search capability so you can tailor your strategies to suit your individual requirements. Zignals offers a full suite of FREE financial services including price and fundamental stock alerts , stock charts for Indian, Australian, Frankfurt, Euronext, UK, Ireland and Canadian stocks,

Weekly Review of Stockcharters: Bears or Bulls?

It has been a few weeks since this was last done. What has changed amongst the Stockcharters? Topping the visit list is with Tomas Leszczynski . Interesting look at the S&P if it was an oscillator... I don't normally post individual stocks here, but this is nicely done from Tomas: How will early year buying hold up as last Friday's selling unwound the prior five days of buying? Anthony Caldaro of has marked a Major first wave top with the second wave kicking off from Friday's high. The good news for bulls is that a third wave higher should emerge in a few months. Richard Lehman of the has indicated channel breaks in the Dow 5-min and 60-min charts with a clear resistance confirmation touch on the daily. Lots of room down. 1/23 -- OK, I've updated everything now. Sorry, but deadlines on book #3 ('Options for Volatile Markets' - coming in Sep) have had me hunkered down for weeks. This

Weekly Market Commentary: Bears Take Control

Friday's selloff was enough to dictate terms for the week. The Nasdaq has yet to make it all the way to 2,818 resistance. Instead, a mini-resistance level has developed at 2,766. Stochastics are weakening from a reaction peak, suggesting a pullback of a number of weeks is in the making. Nasdaq via The Nasdaq 100 managed to eek out a tiny gain and is well above 2,217 support. Going forward, market momentum will depend on how well the Nasdaq 100 holds up on future weakness. Should it stumble a larger rout is likely. ($NDX) via Nasdaq Breadth suffered a second week of sharp declines. The Nasdaq Percentage of Stocks Above the 50-day MA closed the week just above the 50% market; reaction bottoms occur around 30% - although during the current cyclical bull market the Nasdaq has found reaction lows when in the mid-teens. Net effect, more downside ahead. ($NAA50R) via Meanwhile, the lagging S&P is below 2008 mini-reaction hi

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors Come To The Fore

There was very little reaction (or room to maneuver) in the main indices. So it was left to the semiconductor to do all the running. The Philly SOX closed just shy of a new high, but is well positioned to push on to channel resistance above 460. The other benefit of today's gain was the reversal of technical weakness in the MACD and CCI. ($SOX) via Just for the record, the Russell 2000 closed with a narrow doji wedged between yesterday's gain and former channel support. Shorts might try to play a downside break of today's low, although any break is likely to be brief given the proximity of 50-day MA support. ($RUT) : " via The Nasdaq got to touch former channel support-turned-resistance on its fourth day of gains. If there was an opportunity for bears to strike then this is it; short resistance test and play for the 50-day MA. ($COMPQ) via Look to the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 for early leads as shorts may be ea

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Excel

It was a day for Small Caps to shine as an almost 2% gain took the Russell 2000 above its 20-day MA. However, the gain wasn't enough to regain former channel support - so while the days' rally looks impressive - the Russell 2000 finished at resistance. There was a consolation, the CCI switched back to a 'buy' signal. ($RUT) via The percentage gain was considerably smaller for Large Caps. However, there was enough of a move to register a new closing high for the S&P. Volume traded was light. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq gained almost a 1% and worked off its 20-day MA. But it sits outside of its former channel and faces the same challenge as the Russell 2000. ($COMPQ) via For tomorrow it could be more of the same. Rallies are intact and 20-day MAs are playing as support. While channel resistance is a factor, because it's rising resistance it's not particularly restrictive. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan

Daily Market Commentary: Attempting to Rally

I'm getting back into the fold after a few days down with the flu. Today was yet another attempt by bulls to make back last week's losses. The S&P was able to defend its 20-day MA with a slight uptick in volume (net accumulation). Last week's selling didn't hurt the technical picture at all - so bulls hold the advantage. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq hasn't the advantage of using the 20-day MA as support like the S&P, but is instead struggling to maintain it as support. ($COMPQ) via The Nasdaq 100 did better, gaining traction at new channel support ($NDX) via Although there was no help from the semiconductor index ($SOX) via The Percentage of Nasdaq Stock above the 50-day MA moved to a confirmed 'sell'; although it may only be a temporary weak phase as it turned out to be last November. Nasdaq Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average (EOD) ($NAA50R) via F

Daily Market Commentary: Positive Test of 20-day MA for S&P

The S&P passed its first test with a defense of its 20-day MA. Volume climbed to register a distribution day although the index had recovered most of Thursday's loss by the close. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq spent part of its day below the 20-day MA, but was able to recover it by the close. However, there was a MACD and +DI/-DI 'sell' trigger to add to the now confirmed break of the rising channel. ($COMPQ) via The Russell 2000 also gave up rising channel support and lost further ground on its 20-day MA. Speculative small caps have underperformed against Tech and Large Caps since the start of 2011. This is of significant concern to bulls as it marks the first universal shift in relative strength since the start of September 2010 (when it was a shift to the bulls). ($RUT) via While today's trading offered a relatively mild loss for the Large Caps. There was a bearish undercurrent to action in Tech and Small Caps.

Daily Market Commentary: Bears Welcome In The New Year

Not since the start of November in 2010 has there been a day where bears ruled the roost. Having said that, they didn't have it all their own way and bull trends remain dominant (one day of selling does not equate to a new trend). The losses in the S&P were not accompanied by a pick up in volume. In fact, volume was very light. The MACD trigger line switched back to a 'sell', but from a flat-lined position. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq has been riding channel support and today's heavier volume losses may have done enough to break this support. Technicals haven't reversed and the 20-day MA is nearby to lend support. How will it perform at 2,697-2,698 tomorrow? ($COMPQ) via Tech weakness was enough to undermine bullish support in breadth indicators; both the Nasdaq Bullish Percents and Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA triggered 'sell's. ($BPCOMPQ) via ($NAA50R) via Semic

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors at Channel Resistance

With the rally steady-as-she-goes across all key indices it is left to the semiconductor index to make its next move. The SOX finished on channel resistance although technicals are not pointing to immediate weakness - or indeed a bearish divergence - so there is a good chance tomorrow will see an acceleration of the rally for semis. ($SOX) via The Nasdaq 100 is hugging former support line. I have placed greater emphasis on the shallower channel as new support. Volume was a little disappointing, so this trend may flatten more into a sideways consolidation. ($NDX) via Small Caps are on the verge of a new MACD trigger 'buy' signal (above the bullish zero line). Bissecting support/resistance. AAAAAAAAD Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT) via Meanwhile the S&P continued to push higher on good volume accumulation ($SPX) via Little to suggest the rally is about to end for any of the indices. The only c

Weekly Market Commentary: More Gains

It was yet another good week for indices as bulls hit the throttle. Starting with the Nasdaq, it gained close to 2% and is on course to test 2007 resistance at 2,818. Remember, the Nasdaq 100 has already surpassed 2007 highs. Nasdaq via And its the Nasdaq 100 which will have bulls frothing. If there was a disappointment it's the poor volume associated with the break of 2,217 resistance (now support). Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX) via One thing I missed in my look at market breadth over the past few weeks was the Confirmed 'Sell' back in November for the Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA. Of course, the Nasdaq has powered higher despite the bearishness in Nasdaq breadth, but a decent pullback - much like the start of 2010 - is probably not far away. Keep an eye on declining resistance, there is still room to the upside but I suspect the pullback will start when this indicator touches 74% ($NAA50R) via Small


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