Monday, April 24, 2017

Breakouts All Around: Nasdaq, Russell 2000 and S&P

The French election result was greeted as a welcome trigger for breakouts. All indices benefited from the action. Best of the action was in the Russell 2000. The Russell 2000 cleared 1,390 which marked a resistance level of the former bearish consolidation triangle. Technicals are all bullish and an intraday move which pushed below 1,390 but came back by the close would be very healthy for bulls.

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Sunday, April 23, 2017

Nasdaq Technicals Net Bullish as Breakout Readies

Things looking good for the Nasdaq as technicals return net bullish after a brief period of bearishness. This coincided with the index nestled against resistance helped by Friday's tight intraday action.  The index is nicely placed for a breakout on Monday, especially given the relative out-performance of the Nasdaq against its peers.

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Monday, April 17, 2017

Markets Rally, But Still Work To Do.

A positive response to Friday's selling helped erase those losses, but for many indices it wasn't enough to recover support or reverse technical 'sell' triggers.

The S&P is on the verge of a 'death cross' between 20-day and 50-day MAs as the rally finished just below the 50-day MA. The consolidation channel remains in play and this should see higher prices in the latter part of the year, but for now, it's drifting down in a relatively controlled manner.

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Sunday, April 16, 2017

Markets Net Bearish Technically

It has been a while since markets were net bearish, but the S&P, Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrials and Russell 2000 are all now net bearish in technical strength. Adding to this is a number of these indices have also broken from support channels. The best case for bulls is that markets shift sideways and work out the bearish technicals - building for the next rally. But if there is an acceleration down it could snowball in a manner similar to how markets rallied after the election. It's not a time to buy, and it may not be a bad time to sell or short.  Long-term investors will probably stick as there is no way of knowing what may come - and an extended period of weakness is due which shouldn't worry investors (the March 2009 low I still view as a generational low).

The S&P wasn't the biggest loser on Friday and this was reflected in the relative improvement of the index to its peers. The downward channel could still play as a 'bull flag', but if there is to happen it will have to rally when it hits channel support just below 2,322.  Selling volume has been light, although there is a general distribution trend in On-Balance-Volume.

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