Thursday, November 20, 2014

Bulls Pressure Highs, Big Recovery in Small Caps

Another good day sent indices back to highs, but it was the Russell 2000 that probably came out best.  Yesterday's losses in Small Caps were consumed by a bullish engulfing pattern. The index defended its 20-day MA, although stochastics weren't oversold,which would have strengthened the engulfing pattern.

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Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Early Losses Couldn't Kill Yesterday's Gains

It was a decent, yet unspectacular day for the indices. Early losses were clawed back by the close, but there was no push higher.

The S&P is nicely positioned to gain.  The inside day at oversold conditions is typically bearish, but I'm not sure today was.

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Semiconductors Breakout, While S&P Makes Its Move.

A solid day for Semiconductors saw a solid breakout from the recent handle (without a violation of the measuring gap), which even managed to mount a challenge on the September 'bull trap'. It still has a bit of work to do to get to new highs, but bulls have shown their hand, and now it's up to others to follow suit. This - to me - looks good for a push to 700s, but even a move back to 600 would offer the possibility of a head-and-shoulder bounce: lots of room for bulls to work with here.

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Monday, November 17, 2014

Russell 2000 Experiences Increased Selling Pressure

In real terms, today's selling in the Russell 2000 was relatively light, but it was the only business in town. The selling brought the index back to handle support, but it hasn't violated the gap, and there is a 50-day MA which 'golden crossed' with the 200-day MA to provide support.

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Minor Gains Continue as Semiconductors Shape Handle

While I'm late with this weekend's update there was very little to add from Thursday. Best of the action remains in the Semiconductors, which is shaping a solid handle in preparation for a possible break higher (ignore the 'Death Cross' between 20-d and 50-d MAs - this is now a 'Golden Cross').

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Thursday, November 13, 2014

Wide(r) Range Day Breaks the Monotony

There wasn't a whole lot going on today. The Russell 2000 closed with a potential 'bull trap' that could evolve into something bigger, perhaps the only index offering shorts anything as of today's close.

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Russell 2000 Adds to Breakout

Wednesday proved to be a relatively quiet day. Large Caps managed to keep themselves out of the limelight with a mid-morning recovery after an opening sell off. Best of the action belonged to the Russell 2000. It was able to put some distance on a tight handle consolidation, which sets it up for a move to challenge resistance at 1,208.

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Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Swing Trade Tuesday's Narrow Range

All indices traded themselves into very narrow ranges - offering the potential for a big move once today's high/low are breached. It's the kind of market where everyone is expecting the rally to collapse, but no one wants to make the first move. Which is why this rally will probably keep moving higher; even if all buyers are in, shorts will have to cover if there is another surge - which will bring more buyers in. One thing which is happening is the reduction in buying volume.

The S&P is unchanged.

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Monday, November 10, 2014

Further Minor Gains Extend Rallies

There wasn't much to today or Friday, but bulls kept the pressure on shorts in existing positions. The Russell 2000 had the best of the (modest) action, edging a breakout from the narrow, 6-day handle. A move to upper resistance remains favoured; watch for a 'bull trap' on an undercut of breakout support.

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Thursday, November 06, 2014

Dow Pushes Well Past Breakout Support

Another day of gains for markets, but it was the Dow which is best positioned to benefit. The Dow is out of range of the easy short with an undercut of breakout support: one day of loss might not be enough to see this level tested, given net bullish technicals and a MACD at a new high.

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