Thursday, August 21, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: S&P Breakout

It was the only index with something to play for today, and that play was bullish. The S&P nicked a close above 1,992, which leaves it vulnerable to a 'bull trap' tomorrow. Other aspects, like technicals, are bullish, which keeps the long side favored in this market.

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Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductor Gains Accelerate

It was more of the same from the Semiconductor index: a solid gain which took the index ever closer to 652 resistance. All of which is helping the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 maintain their push to all-time highs. Technicals for the Semiconductor Index are net bullish.  Weakness will offer itself as a buying opportunity, particularly at the breakout line and/or 50-day MA. Risk can be measured from the 38.2% fib retracement at $616.25.

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Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Moving Averages Break

A further acceleration in the rally took indices past key moving averages and into a space with limited overhead resistance. One of the indices hardest hit by the sell off was the semiconductor index. While it hasn't challenged July highs it did close above the neckline and 50-day MA. Technicals also finished today net bullish.

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Monday, August 18, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Nasdaq and Dow Breakout

Well, half of what I suggested might happen, happened. The Nasdaq effectively limped a breakout, but the Dow had a far more enthused push higher. If there was a red flag for either of the breakouts it was the lack of volume, but given the extent of the moves there is room for some give back while maintaining the breakout.

The Dow closed bang on its 50-day MA, which is another resistance level, but the breakout is of greater significance than resistance at its 50-day MA.

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Sunday, August 17, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Tetchy Friday

Ukrainian fears (mis-information) knocked Friday's morning rally before markets staged a recovery by the close. Sellers are likely to remain trigger happy but bulls have been willing to snap up these sell offs. Volume climbed to register distribution in non-Tech indices, but the August bounce from swing lows remain intact.

The S&P closed between the 20-day and 50-day MAs, but with a bullish cross in stochastics and a new MACD trigger 'buy'.

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Thursday, August 14, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Rally Continues

Another day to leave excluded bulls wishing they had bought last week. Tomorrow will offer opportunities for bears to take advantage, but not all indices are in the same shape.

The S&P is one such index which will find itself under the influence of bears on Friday. Today's rally took the index up to its 20-day MA, which just 'Death Crossed' below the 50-day MA. Near term momentum is with bulls, but if there is going to be a change then tomorrow is a good chance for shorts to show their hand.

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Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Good Day For Bulls

Today's buying offset the prior two days of indecision in the markets. The Nasdaq had perhaps the best of the action, rallying past the 20-day MA in a move towards 4,485. Technicals are on the verge of a net bullish switch with an upcoming MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume 'buy'.

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