Monday, November 20, 2017

Russell 2000 Makes It Back to 'Bull Flag' Resistance Leaving 'Bear Trap' Behind

Over the course of Thursday and Friday the Russell 2000 reversed what had looked like a runaway breakdown into a counter rally and potential breakout. Now it's the time for shorts, FOMO longs and existing longs to pressure resistance. Action over the last two days of the week was particularly tasty particularly if you are looking for an extension of the August-October rally. Better still, there isn't a whole lot of competition from other indices for trading opportunities. Long risk measured from a stop below 1,454.

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Thursday, November 16, 2017

S&P 'Bull Trap' Becomes A 'Bear Trap'

As this rally has often done, just as you expect a reversal to start, bulls come in (hard) to bid up the market. The S&P had the clearest switch as it moved from a 'bull trap' to a 'bear trap'. If it can post a break of 2,597 it will have little to stop it; in such a scenario watch for a fresh MACD 'buy' which would confirm recent losses as a pullback 'buy' opportunity. Stops on a loss of 2,557.

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Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Bears Turn The Screw

The Russell 2000 was again under pressure as it shed another 0.5%. The Russell 2000 now trades below its 50-day MA despite recovering some of today's intraday losses. It looks like controlled selling with an artificial prop to prevent a rout. The 200-day MA is the next port of call but a 1% loss of more will bring sellers in fast. Technicals are weak but not oversold.

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Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Bulls Able To Recover Early Losses

Another day where bulls had to dig deep to make back early losses but there was little more beyond that.

The Russell 2000 remains the index most feeling the pressure. It's trading below the 50-day MA but hasn't experienced the kind of day where longs will feel pressured to sell. Some traders may take an aggressive long with stops below 1,463 with the index hugging support of the (failing) 'bull flag' - although it doesn't look a particularly attractive trade. Technicals are all net negative and relative performance is very poor (for Small Caps).

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