Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Happy Thanksgiving!

It's unlikely we will be seeing much action over the next few days. I have memories of Thanksgiving Friday been good for bulls, but with holiday trading anything can happen.

The index most likely to enjoy a good holiday break is the Russell 2000.

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Monday, November 24, 2014

Semiconductors Continue to Gain

Again, it was left to Semiconductors to do the leg work for the day as it added nearly 1%. The question is whether strength in this index will contribute to further gains for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100.  The 'bull trap' in the Semiconductor index is now negated.

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Sunday, November 23, 2014

Overreaching Enthusiasm?

Bullish monetary policy rumblings from China and Europe had kick started a bright opening for markets, but the feel good factor gradually wore off as the day lengthened, and in the end, the day felt oddly bearish. The S&P closed with a bearish inverse hammer, which could turn into a bearish shooting star if there is a gap down on Monday. Volume climbed to register technical accumulation, but this could mark significant overhead supply if sellers come back tomorrow. I have widened the Fib levels for the next decline. Note, pending MACD trigger 'sell,' although other technicals are in good shape.

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Thursday, November 20, 2014

Bulls Pressure Highs, Big Recovery in Small Caps

Another good day sent indices back to highs, but it was the Russell 2000 that probably came out best.  Yesterday's losses in Small Caps were consumed by a bullish engulfing pattern. The index defended its 20-day MA, although stochastics weren't oversold,which would have strengthened the engulfing pattern.

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Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Early Losses Couldn't Kill Yesterday's Gains

It was a decent, yet unspectacular day for the indices. Early losses were clawed back by the close, but there was no push higher.

The S&P is nicely positioned to gain.  The inside day at oversold conditions is typically bearish, but I'm not sure today was.

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Semiconductors Breakout, While S&P Makes Its Move.

A solid day for Semiconductors saw a solid breakout from the recent handle (without a violation of the measuring gap), which even managed to mount a challenge on the September 'bull trap'. It still has a bit of work to do to get to new highs, but bulls have shown their hand, and now it's up to others to follow suit. This - to me - looks good for a push to 700s, but even a move back to 600 would offer the possibility of a head-and-shoulder bounce: lots of room for bulls to work with here.

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Monday, November 17, 2014

Russell 2000 Experiences Increased Selling Pressure

In real terms, today's selling in the Russell 2000 was relatively light, but it was the only business in town. The selling brought the index back to handle support, but it hasn't violated the gap, and there is a 50-day MA which 'golden crossed' with the 200-day MA to provide support.

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Minor Gains Continue as Semiconductors Shape Handle

While I'm late with this weekend's update there was very little to add from Thursday. Best of the action remains in the Semiconductors, which is shaping a solid handle in preparation for a possible break higher (ignore the 'Death Cross' between 20-d and 50-d MAs - this is now a 'Golden Cross').

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Thursday, November 13, 2014

Wide(r) Range Day Breaks the Monotony

There wasn't a whole lot going on today. The Russell 2000 closed with a potential 'bull trap' that could evolve into something bigger, perhaps the only index offering shorts anything as of today's close.

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Russell 2000 Adds to Breakout

Wednesday proved to be a relatively quiet day. Large Caps managed to keep themselves out of the limelight with a mid-morning recovery after an opening sell off. Best of the action belonged to the Russell 2000. It was able to put some distance on a tight handle consolidation, which sets it up for a move to challenge resistance at 1,208.

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