Wednesday, December 07, 2016

Large Caps Breakout

Yesterday it was the action of Small Caps. Today it was the turn of Large Caps. Significant gains for both S&P and Dow took indices well past their recent swing highs.

The S&P registered an accumulation day on a solid gain of 1.3%. Technicals are all bullish. Will this see a measured move higher? 2,310 is the target.

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Reader's Question

"...One thing though I would like you to shed light on: the price action we see nowadays: 1. Isn't it irrational exuberance 2. How does it compare to 2000 and 2007/08 and 3. In the wake of QEs to date and now promised fiscal stimulus, how large a bubble we will end up creating"

Hi Solomon,

Thanks for the feedback.

[1] The March 2009 low was a 'generational' low for me (i.e. a buying opportunity like this is unlikely to occur again in my lifetime). I have to admit, it came a year early for me - but I think it's a significant low which will stand the test of time.

[2] However, the broader market is in need of a significant pullback to mark a cyclical low; one much like in November 2011. The Russell 2000 was the only index to tag this in February 2016 and I think we are seeing the fruits of this now.  But all markets have to experience the sell off to definitively put a mark on this.  It has been 5 years since such a move last happened so we are (very) late to the next one.  When this happens, it will be a time to buy. You see a calendar for these events at the bottom of each post.

[3] There is nothing irrational about the current rally. We have been climbing a wall of 'Trump' worry


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Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician for, and Product Development Manager for I also trade on eToro and can be copied for free.

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Tuesday, December 06, 2016

Russell 2000 in Take Profit Territory

The Russell 2000 pushes again into the 10% zone of historic high prices (1,388 would be enough for the 5% zone last seen in February 2011). Back in 2011 the index rallied for another couple of months before it lost 30% from its high.  The next few weeks would be a good opportunity to take some money off the table to use on the next swing low.

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Higher Volume Gaps Higher

An interesting start to the week. Markets gapped higher off the open and were able to add some distance to their starting points.

The Russell 2000 chalked up a near 2% gain as it makes a run on 1,347.  This was enough to finish the day at the high.  The MACD is still on a 'sell' trigger, but another day like today should be enough to reverse it.

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