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Showing posts from August, 2009

Stock Market Commentary: Gap Down But No Follow Through

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It could have been a lot worse but in the end there was little change for many of the indices. The Nasdaq finished above 2,000 on no technical change and light volume; it's going to need more than a break of the 50-day MA to crack this The Dow is trading between upper channel resistance and its 20-day MA below. Plenty of room down to support. The biggest change came in small caps; relative strength shifted away from speculative and tech issues to 'safer' large cap stocks. There were also bearish 'sell' triggers from the MACD and CCI. Note how the Russell 2000 has so far failed to get anywhere close to its upper channel line. However, the 20-day MA remains as support. The semiconductor index is another index struggling to make it to its upper channel, but at least it scored a MACD trigger 'buy' The week has started badly, but how will it end? Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts , stock charts , watchlist, multi-curr

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

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This week sees September roll in, with Labor day weekend to finish it off. Will the arrival of September see the end of the summer rally? Do the Stockcharters have anything to say about it. Anthony V Caldaro of Objectiveelliotwave.com has labeled a 'B' wave top of the 'ABC' correction; is this for the minor correction or is it *the* "B" wave top? Looks like a minor 'B' top based on the weekly chart. I don't know if the second light blue line (c1,050) is the target for the final "B" wave? Plenty of downside room for the Dow but that index has already taken a beating (and a significant reshuffling) over the past year. Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview lists dominant bullish signals on the intermediate time frame and a mixed bag on the short. Yong Pan's market top conditions; 3 out of 4 met (same as last week): Fast approaching the vacuum of 1,050 to 1,225 - could see a sharp move up as a final blowoff. What does this do for the EWT '

Weekly Market Commentary: Quiet Close to Week

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The S&P mapped another week pegged at resistance. The bearish divergence in the MACD histogram hasn't changed and the week ended in modest accumulation. The Nasdaq put further ground between it and its declining trendline resistance, but the 2006 reaction low lingers as potential supply. Like the S&P it recorded a mild accumulation week. Sentiment rallied but still looks horribly overbought. Or engaged in significant bearish divergences: It's hard to match the daily optimism to the weekly situation in the markets but this has been going since the June highs. But even with this, markets could rally for another year and continue to see these divergences develop. However, a continuation of the rally - even that lasting a year - may only add another 10%. It's hard to see another 50% getting tacked on to any market. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts , stock charts , watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy bu

Stock Market Commentary: Support at 20-day MAs

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A solid recovery from index 20-day MAs on higher volume. The Nasdaq cracked below 2,000 but was able to finish the day just above yesterday's close. Technicals close to a MACD trigger 'buy'. For the Dow it was yet another indecisive doji at resistance but has room to maneuver to channel resistance: For the Nasdaq 100, volume has consistently sided with bullish accumulation: While the Russell 2000 claimed a MACD trigger 'buy' Market primed for another push higher? With bulls prepared to defend 20-day MAs there may be another short squeeze in the works. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts , stock charts , watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Roll on September

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It appears bulls don't want to get involved until they see how September starts and bears aren't prepared to sell until September starts. Volume did climb to register an accumulation day for the Nasdaq, although given the lack of movement in the market it could easily have registered as distribution. Also for the Nasdaq there is a chance for a MACD trigger 'buy', although the MACD is at risk of flat-lining here. The S&P did sneak a MACD trigger 'buy' but little else The same was true for the Dow as it climbed next to resistance Labor day beckons. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts , stock charts , watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Day 2 of Nowt

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Today was very much a mirror of yesterday. The only difference was the slightly higher than lower close. Volume was lighter than yesterday. There was no technical change in the Nasdaq as it stuck above 2,000. The Dow remained peg to the rising channel But sentiment is struggling to push higher The last divergence in 2006/07 didn't end well; will this be any different? There are only a few more days left of August. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts , stock charts , watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Quiet Day

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Late day selling took the sting out of Monday as did the light volume. The resistance break of 2,011 in the Nasdaq is the area for bulls to defend. The Dow finished nestled against rising channel resistance While the Semiconductor index was the only index to post any significant reversal but the 20-day MA remains as support. As September rolls ever closer things could get ugly but for now bulls are in full control. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts , stock charts , watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Weekly Review of Stockcharts.com Publishers' Charts

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Vacation season will be rounding off to a close soon. How will seasonal factors play in the weeks ahead? So far bulls have held control since the March lows, but will this change anytime soon? Anthony Caldaro of ObjectiveElliotWave has penciled in a 5-wave structure with the third wave currently underway. If true then the fourth wave can't undercut the first (so S&P holds above 990) before a new high is made as part of the final fifth wave. Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has a mix of bullish, bearish and neutral sentiment signals. I think the surprise here is that sentiment is not more overbought. But a 'sell' signal in place? Another bearish wedge (a common theme over the past month or two): Gaps to fill continue to stack up: Richard Lehman has new short term channels at play 8/22 -- You can say what you want about being catapulted upward by a falling dollar and excess worldwide liquidity that has nowhere else to go, and you can rile about the excessive valuations i

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