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Showing posts from January, 2007

Trade Ideas: LOW

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Markets taking an initial shine to the Fed decision. Russell 2000 clears 797 resistance in a fresh breakout. New highs in Large caps. Techs remain range bound, but are at least working upside from their 20-day MAs (or mid-Bollinger band). The buying was reflected in the Trade Ideas scan; 8 picks covered a time span of under 1 minute . Topping in 45 appearances was Lowe's Companies ( LOW ) (actually - now that I look down the list I see Teleflex, TFX , on 57 appearances ) The best strategy play for this is to follow the trend channel. The stock recently enjoyed a "Golden Cross" between its 50-day and 200-day MAs. Major base resistance lurks at $34.50. Look for a handle to develop between $32 and $35 before the real fun starts. Projected target of $42. Current bearish point-n-figure chart target of $19 will be negated by a move to $35. Lowe?s Companies, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer in the United States and Canada. It offers a line of products and services

Trade Ideas: DSW

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Another non-event day. Only the Russell 2000 showed signs it could break channel resistance (and generate an important breakout). The Trade Ideas scan was buoyant enough at 2 minutes for 8 stocks. Coming in at 32 appearances for the day was DSW Corp. ( DSW ) - one of the few stocks to break the 20 appearance barrier. DSW trades a channel within a channel as the stock prepares to test $41.94 resistance. Stops can go on a break of the reaction low which also marks the most recent (successful) test of the 50-day MA. The point-n-figure chart holds to a target of $61, but is neutral for a price pattern. DSW, Inc. distributes and retails branded footwear in the United States. It offers a selection of brand name and designer dress, casual, and athletic footwear for men and women. The company also provides complementary selection of handbags, hosiery, and other accessories. In addition, it operates leased shoe departments for three nonaffiliated retailers and one affiliated retailer. If yo

Trade Ideas: AGD

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Another quiet day for the markets with only small caps (Russell 2000) showing a continuation of its recent bullish strength. It has still to break 797 resistance, but every day it takes a step towards doing so. The Trade Ideas scan was modestly bullish with 8 picks covering a time span of 9 minutes . Top of the frequency list was Alpine Global Dynamics ( AGD ). The closed end equity fund is contained by a downward price channel with resistance just shy of $23. Stops can go on a break of $22.15. This 2006 IPO looks well placed to break 2-month resistance having successfully tested the 50-day MA. Look for a measured move target of $27. It pays an 8.6% yield. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Weekend Commentary

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Last week covered all the bases as Friday turned in a low volume, flat day. The week as a whole failed to say anything about how the November-January sideways channels will break in the NASDAQ , NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 . Large caps [ Dow , and S&P ] kept their rallies intact, but these indices can't be expected to keep the overall market bubbling along at a solid rate. The semiconductor index managed a close above its 200-day MA, placing it well inside its prior bull channel after an earlier break of support. The Russell 2000 closed on a bullish piercing pattern - but the pattern is weak given it occurred when intermediate term [39,1] and short term [14,3] stochastics are in neutral territory. Tech market internals [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] also changed little on the week, although there is a pending 'buy' signal in the MACD of the $BPCOMPQ as it parent indicator whipsaws around its 5-day MA - directionless. The $NAA50 remained contained inside its co

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review

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A Helter Skelter week saw ups and downs but little net change to the markets. What did the Stockcharters have to say about it all? No change from Joe Reed or Mitchell Meana . [Sidenote: Headline Charts did a great follow up to one of Mitchell's charts]. Matthew Frailey hasn't too much to add to his earlier charts on the market indices, but he has a nice semiconductor chart showing support at Fibonacci (not to mention a picture perfect break and retest of support). Richard Lehman was one of the few leading Stockcharters to note changes in the indices: His Nasdaq chart shows a channel within a channel: And a new short term upward channel in small caps, within the context of a larger sideways trading range: I have posted a large number of Richard's charts - but if you follow his link he has some complimentary charts for energy and gold which meld nicely with Jack Chan's listed below. Micheal Winfree notes a potential consolidation top in the Qs: Ted Burge shifted b

Trade Ideas: 2 minutes

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What a difference a day makes. Today's buying spread for 8 stocks was only 2 minutes. This from a market which looks to be taking a breather from yesterday. Also of interest were the number of stocks from my newsletter making fresh upside moves (to subscribe, fill in a payment schedule in the right hand margin - all 24 hours to set up access). Usually, there are one or two stocks making a run; but to have 7 do so on a day which didn't look to promise much is interesting. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: 169 minutes

That is how long it took the Trade Ideas scan to select 8 stocks for today. I had no stocks to present due to a trip to the field to collect soil samples, but the market threw a complete reversal to yesterday's bullish action. I would ignore the noise of the last couple of days - November-January channels are key for defining the future direction of the market. The 8 stocks were WRE, FRP, UIS, UGI, CBE, DLM, IGR and NG. None broke the 20 apperance barrier. P.S. If you do follow the link to my Stockchart.com Public list where I keep my index charts I would appreciate your vote by clicking the link at the bottom of the destination page. In the good ol' days my list once reached the dizzy height of 12th best list and got 6,000 views a month; now I languish in 49th place with only 2,250 views. The Stockchart viewers are a fickle crowd - but there is a probably an interesting study on the degree of speculation in the markets based on the popularity of certain lists. I remember J.P

Trade Ideas: RPF, DOW, BBH, RQI, CHN, WMB, SSS, TRK

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Large caps closed at new highs, followed by decent gains in Tech and Small caps (but the latter indices are still caught inside prior congestion levels). The Trade Ideas scan completed the list of 8 stocks inside 1 minute - a healthy measure of bullish strength to Wednesday's buying. However, only two picks: Dow Chemical ( DOW ) and China Fund ( CHN ) cleared the 20 appearance barrier at 20 and 25 hits apiece. Also, only two picks made bullish crosses of the 50-day MA by the 20-day MA: Dow Chemical ( DOW ) (again) and Biotech Holders ( BBH ). The 1-year charts of some picks like C&S Premium Income Realty Fund ( RPF ) and Cohen and Steers Quality Income Realty Fund ( RQI ) [Answers on a postcard as to how these funds differ] look too extended to be taking a bite. Dow Chemical ( DOW ) looks to have emerged from a 2-month handle and is well placed to challenge 2005 highs of $53. Willliams Cos. ( WMB ) moves in steady steps - its most recent was a confirmed test of support at

Trade Ideas: KAI, BAP, PFN, CTV, DPL, MMA, EZA, CAM

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Barring a late day collapse it was significantly better day for the markets. The Trade Ideas scan ducked under 10 minutes in selecting 8 stocks, requiring 8 minutes - not quite "super bull" but better than recent buying. Two picks: Commscope ( CTV ) and Kadant ( KAI ), broke the 20 appearance mark at 25 and 30 hits apiece. It was interesting to see stocks like Commscope ( CTV ), Kadant ( KAI ), Credicorp ( BAP ) and Cooper Cameron ( CAM ) rallying from positions of weakness (50-day MA > 20-day MA). The 1 year charts are mixed. Municipal Mortgage Equity ( MMA ) has congested into a coiled spring; look for break of $31.70, stop loss on break of $31.25, projected target of $36.50. Scrappy handles are forming in Cooper Cameron ( CAM ), DPL ( DPL ), Kadant ( KAI ) and Credicorp ( BAP ). But there is nothing looking particularly compelling. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: MIC, TOL, KEP, WPZ, NOC, WBS, EDU, NRG

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Although I didn't post a time scale for Friday's buying on the Trade Ideas scan ( 13 minutes ) it was little changed to today at 15 minutes for 8 stocks. None of this is a surprise in light of Monday's selling but the real question will be how Nov-Jan support hold in the face of increasing supply? Of the 8 stocks, two broke the 20 appearance barrier: Webster Financial ( WBS ) and New Oriental ( EDU ) at 24 and 34 hits apiece. Horthrop Grumman ( NOC ) was the only pick to push a bullish cross of the 50-day MA by the 20-day MA inside the last 2 months. Of the 1-year charts - there is a small handle pattern in Toll Brothers ( TOL ); support at $30, resistance at $33; projected target up around $43. Korea Electric ( KEP ) has developed a broad 'cup' pattern and is in the early stages of forming a 'handle' - look for a move to $32. Williams Partners ( WPZ ) has shaped a 3-month base after moving in a prior strong uptrend from $30 to $40; short term look for $

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review

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I will lead off with Richard Lehman 's work. He said it nicely here: 1/20 -- In a rare occurrence, EVERY major index here (Dow, Naz, QQQQ, RUT and SPX) all stopped DEAD ON the upper lines of their new short term downtrends. That amount of unison is amazing (a little channel magic, maestro?). Unless Monday is a solidly positive opening, they will all likely back off and head lower again within those downtrends - perhaps even sharply. Longer term, things are still quite positive , but definitely peaking or even rounding out a multi-month top in my estimation. By the way...I assume you all saw the new sector charts. Just remember, these are six-month charts -- not 20-day. I may add shorter ones if it seems warranted. 1/18 - Yup, small caps broke and took a dive. Short term trends are unquestionably down for them. That's taking the large caps down inside their channels as well. Fasten your seat belts... Joe Reed is looking for a top in the S$P: Mitchell Meana has an interesting c

Datawink

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This is a handy tool which matches current trading patterns with historical patterns for the stock; from this you can see the outcome of these matches. I put in today's stock, KMP , which made the following 1-month matches: and predicted the following 1-month outcomes: The charts are ordered from greatest match to least match from left-right. It would be good to get a measure of the correlation between past behavior and future price movement - do highly correlated price patterns produce the most consistent returns? From eyeballing the above charts I would say chart " 2 " had the strongest correlation to the current KMP 1-month picture. In the historic match the stock followed through before the stock pulled back at months end. Chart " 4 " is a relatively good match and it too was followed with some upside follow through before it gave its gains back by month end. Charts " 1 ", " 5 " and " 7 " look fairly similar and it was interest

Trade Ideas: KMP

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Tech and small caps are taking it on the chin as large caps hold on. The Trade Ideas scan was a little slower with 8 picks covering a time span of 12 minutes . Within that time frame only one stock broke the 20 appearance barrier: Kinder Morgan Energy ( KMP ) at 25 hits , but earlier in the day and at 35 hits was Johnson and Johnson ( JNJ ) - a stock I have been holding for 5 years. Kinder Morgan Energy ( KMP has cleared $49 resistance after enjoying a decent September-December run from $42.04 to $48.98. The measured move for the next leg up should see it test $53-54. Stops can go on a loss of Thursday's lows. The stock has a reported 6.7% yield. Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P. engages in the ownership and management of energy transportation and storage assets primarily in the United States. The company operates through four segments: Products Pipelines, Natural Gas Pipelines, CO2, and Terminals. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow

Trade Ideas: MBT

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The market returned some of its recent gains, but there was a marked improvement in the rate of buying; the Trade Ideas scan increased the timing of the 8 picks to 1 minute , although there still wasn't a lot of strength in individual stocks. Mobile Telesystems OJSC ( MBT ) broke the 20 appearance barrier to register 25 hits on the day. Mobile Telesystems OJSC ( MBT ) trades inside a rising channel. Stops can go on a break of the most recent reaction low which followed a positive test of the 50-day MA. Resistance can be found at the most recent reaction high of $51.13, then the upper channel band. The point-n-figure chart shows an upside target of $68. Mobile TeleSystems OJSC, together with its subsidiaries, provides wireless telecommunication services in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. It offers mobile cellular communications services based on global system for mobile communications technology. The company provides network access services, such as

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