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Showing posts from September, 2007

How accurate are bloggers II?

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No Weekly Stockcharts.com review for this week - instead I am doing a follow up piece on an earlier article. It's time for round two of the analysis of the Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll . My original analysis covered 20 polls from the start of the year and is given here . This is another 20 sample poll, covering the period from April 20th to August 31st. What is interesting about this period was the sharp correction for the S&P in July/August, but how had this impacted on Bloggers? There have been some changes, notable were the end of contributions from Ant and Sons, and Bill aka NoDooDahs in July, both of whom were regular weekly data providers up to that point. The other blogger returns were a mixed bag: Controlled Greed, Knight Trader, Naked Shorts, Traders Talk, Wishing Wealth, Trader Tim, Jack Stevison, and Fly on the Wall returned 10 or fewer poll returns out of the 19 possible (there were data issues for one week out of the 20) - so their data will be skewed by the

Trade Ideas: VXF, DLS, SCHl, CHDN vs WTW, MKL, PRSC, ATPG

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Markets are moving in baby steps upwards. Traders seem unwilling to push beyond the various morning gaps, perhaps concerned of the potential for a double top in the markets (although the Nasdaq 100 is doing its best to alleviate such fears). Market internals are neutral, but not overbought, thus favoring further gains for the indices. The Trade Ideas scan remains on the bearish side of the fence with a "Top-8" pick list done in 14 minutes and a "20-appearance" list featuring only 5 stocks. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you are interested in knowing what I do with the "Top-8" and "20-appearance" data I have prepared a report here . Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: MSY, FPX, AEE, CLN vs DBTK, CSL, LZ, MORN

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Morning gaps held for the indices, but traders couldn't build on this strength through the day. The Trade Ideas "Top-8" scan covered a slowing 15 minutes , with a "20-appearance" list spread over 3 hours and 45 minutes . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you are interested in knowing what I do with the "Top-8" and "20-appearance" data I have prepared a report here . Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: VAW, IYY, IGW, PEL vs ISH, TSP, ASMI, ARTC

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The Nasdaq 100 pushed a new closing high for 2007, only for volume to disappoint. There wasn't much action from other indices - but could the Nasdaq 100 be awakening from a long standing slumber??? The Trade Ideas scan was significantly more bullish with a "Top-8" selection done in a minute , and a "20-appearance" list done in 3 hours and 10 minutes . If the Nasdaq 100 can hold its breakout it would be good news for the other indices. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you are interested in knowing what I do with the "Top-8" and "20-appearance" data I have prepared a report here . Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: ASG, PJF, ALF, ADAM vs RBA, EQIX, UA, TCBI

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The market got its first taste of post Fed blues. There was some solid action from the Nasdaq 100 as it tried to assume the role of market leader, but it couldn't hold its intraday gains into the close of business. The Trade Ideas scan was similarly flaky: The "Top-8" list was back to its bearish ways at 1 hour and 13 minutes , with only seven stocks featuring over 20 times on the daily scan. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you are interested in knowing what I do with the "Top-8" and "20-appearance" data I have prepared a report here . Trade Ideas

Post no. 1,000 - KIVA time

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This makes it post number 1,000 for this blog (Woo Hoo!). It comes at a time of transition as I move into the third week of my job search (no luck yet!). Moving lock stock and barrel across the planet, with a skill set in need of fine tuning to my new environment is not proving to be easy. But to celebrate the 1,000th post milestone I have set up another three KIVA loans. It appears KIVA's success continues to grow thanks to Oprah and the Today show - there were only 3 pages of projects available to lend too (the majority from Azerbaijan). KIVA have started to provide some more detailed information on what has been lent by each person. My lender page shows I have lent to a total of 37 people. The total amount for my loans is $925 (average is $100). The total amount repaid is $576 (member average is $40). My delinquency rate is 2.70% (member average is 2.51%) with no defaults (member average is 0.38%). Here are the three new loans KIVA

Collective2: AUXL out

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Auxilium Pharmaceuticals (AUXL) undercut $21 support intraday, hitting its stop in the process. The 400 share position closed for a -$592 ( -6.7% ) loss. Collective2

Trade Ideas time stamp

Just for my records. The Trade Ideas "Top-8" list covered 11 minutes - not bad, but just outside what I would consider the bullish threshold of 10 minutes. The "20-appearance" list made it in at just over 4 hours . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you are interested in knowing what I do with the "Top-8" and "20-appearance" data I have prepared a report here . Trade Ideas

Stockcharts.com Weekly review

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Big week with the Fed cut. What had the Stockcharters to say about the market action for the week? Joe Reed is still on gulf watch: Interesting to see a potential stochastic top in the Dow - note the crossover: His energy sector charts make for interesting viewing - note breakout in oil prices: With the Dollar/Euro breakouts: Ted Burge has a good ATR point-n-figure chart for the Qs, showing a breakout as of September 19th with a price target of $52.90 Jack Chan shows how successful the Gold Bug index has been since the August lows: Robert New 's 10-year Yield chart looks more bullish (for higher yields) than it did last week, and that's after the week's rate cut... Richard Lehman had his usual good commentary: 9/22 -- The big picture is still bullish all the way around, though clearly closer to the top now than the bottom. The latest short term channels still have room to go higher. The minichannels show that for all intents and purposes, the move up from the September

Trade Ideas: MTSP, SAB, TDG, MEJ vs CSTR, CR, TDS, CSL

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A relative non-event for the markets after two days worth of gains were pegged back. The Trade Ideas scan was sluggish; the "Top-8" pick list required 1 hour and 22 minutes , while the "20-appearance" list had only five stocks for the day. This was the kind of buying associated with the worst of the August correction, but in the context of recent action it is little less ominous. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you are interested in knowing what I do with the "Top-8" and "20-appearance" data I have prepared a report here . Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: BLT, CAG, FSB, RTE vs ROME, HSP, VRGY, NNN

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An unusually good day given the extent of yesterday's gains. The buying was not as strong intraday as it was on Fed day, but it was still well within bullish parameters; the Trade Ideas "Top-8" pick list came in at a respectable 4 minutes , with a "20-appearance" list in 39 minutes . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you are interested in knowing what I do with the "Top-8" and "20-appearance" data I have prepared a report here . Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: MSFG, ASMI, SYK, MCP vs IFF, IWR, FSCI, IVE

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A larger than expected rate cut has sent the markets soaring blowing past the various 50-day MAs which have troubled the market of late. The next few days will be critical - bulls will need the 50-day MAs to hold when the inevitable backtest takes hold, but today's action is good news for the bulls. At this post it's a little earlier than usual for sampling my Trade Ideas scan. But things are looking very healthy intraday with a "Top-8" pick list selected in under 1 minute - by far the best action we have seen for the last couple of months, and a "20-appearance" list done in an outstanding 2 minutes . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you are interested in knowing what I do with the "Top-8" and "20-appearance" data I have prepared a report here . Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: time stamp

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Tuesday is the big day - but just to keep the data intact the Trade Ideas scan made a "Top-8" list in 31 minutes with only six stocks breaking above the "20-appearance" barrier. Not hugely impressive figures if you are a bull. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you are interested in knowing what I do with the "Top-8" and "20-appearance" data I have prepared a report here . Trade Ideas

Stockcharts.com Weekly review

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First up, I would like to welcome visitors coming from TraderMike 's site (cheers Mike!). With the upcoming Fed decision due there wasn't a whole lot of action to report for the week. Interesting to see Richard's Crockett 's Breakout Setups still top the list - I would have thought the popularity of this list would have suffered over the last month. Dr. Joe points to next week's Fed meeting: Joe is keeping a running update on Gulf storms... But I am unsure of as to were his head-and-shoulder pattern is in the Dow??? Ted Burge has a good chart showing the Nasdaq 100 at resistance: Jack Chan has an interesting take on the Gold and Silver Index, and AMEX Gold Bugs Index: Robert New has confirmed the breakdown in Treasury yields - one Fed rate cut coming up. Richard Lehman hadn't altered his charts too much, but his comments are as good as ever: 9/13 -- The Dow may have been up 1.00% today, but the other indices were nowhere near as strong. The Naz was up one-

50-day MAs are key

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Tests of the 50-day MA are an important first measure of market health given this average tracks closer to price action than the longer term 200-day MA. With the exception of the Russell 2000 - the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P are all challenging 50-day MAs. The Nasdaq is best positioned to lead the markets higher. In the last couple of weeks the Nasdaq has made repeated challenges on the 50-day MA, and was able to end the week above it. Money flow is also improving - another good sign for bulls. The picture is not so clear for Large cap indices. The S&P and Dow have been rebuffed by the 50-day MA and with the 200-day MA and 50-day MA converging there will come a point when something has to give. Small caps are under the most stress as the Death Cross between the 50-day and 200-day MAs looks to pressure the index and send it lower: The Trade Ideas scan was still sluggish with a "Top-8" pick list covering 34 minutes and a "20-appearance" list in 3 hours and 32 minut

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