Posts

Sellers Appear As Support Comes Under Pressure

Image
It was going to happen at some point but sellers have come out of the woodwork. Tech was hardest hit, but there is plenty of support for indices to work with. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) was one of the least impacted by the selling. It staged a mini-breakout, while today's inverse hammer came on higher volume accumulation it's still in a position where it could go either way.
Read more

Popular posts from this blog

Upcoming "Death Cross" for Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
There was some modest buying today from the open, but volume was light and markets are below trading range support established during the latter part of 2024. It's hard to see where the buyers are going to come from given the chaos of Trump. I should add, I listened to Josh Brown's The Compound podcast and he showed an interesting chart of market returns in April-May in the year following a strong return in markets; in essence, selling to pay capital gains tax. Given the precarious nature of markets, and the possibility for this seasonal factor to play out, it's likely we have a couple more months of downward action before value buyers return. If we look at individual markets, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) is looking like the first to signal a long term shift in favor of bears with an upcoming "Death Cross" between the 50-day MA and 200-day MA - perhaps completing before the end of the week. Technicals are net bearish and the volume trend has collapsed since the st...
Read more

Russell 2000 Fresh Breakout

Image
A quiet start to the week with only the Russell 2000 ($IWM) suggesting it could be on the move (higher). Today's action registered as a breakout, albeit on low volume, but with technicals net positive. The Russell 2000 has been outperforming the Nasdaq since the start of June, so it has the interest of market participants and is the best placed for those seeking new long trades.
Read more

Bitcoin Continues To Lose Ground As Indices Stabilize

Image
Bitcoin continues to play dead as indices hold their ground. The 20-day MA of Bitcoin is resistance as today's selling places it on course to test 60K (again), although I suspect the next test will fail, it's too recent a test since the February low test bounce. Only the MACD is offering a weak 'buy'.
Read more

Tweezer Top In Equal Weight S&P - Double Top Semiconductors

Image
Back from holiday, and indices flash another round of topping patterns following earlier patterns which were breached, so while one could go short, you don't want to be holding if pattern highs are breached. While I missed the annoucement, the real shocker was the multi-decade lows posted by the Consumer Sentiment Survey - perhaps one of the few legitimate data points that can be trusted. In the past, this has been a bullish signal as the low in sentiment preceeded the low in markets - but markets are at multi-year highs, so I have no idea what will come next.
Read more

Bitcoin Collapse Goes Against The Grain

Image
Indices are all doing what good indices should in a bull market, but Bitcoin has taken a sharp move down following the rejection at the 200-day MA (and subsequent break of the 50-day MA). As to which side of the coin wins out remains to be seen, but given cryptos relationship to the tech sector it's hard to see how each could continue in their respective directions without at some point aligning. Last week, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) staged a new breakout beyond $287 and then preceeded to trade in a narrow range on low volume. Expectation is for this to continue higher, but a loss of $287 would open up the potential for a 'bull trap' and set things for a move to $270. Technicals are net positive, but the MACD is shaping a bearish divergence.
Read more

Russell 2000 Breakout and AI concerns

Image
The long weekend has been kind to markets. The Russell 2000 finally joined lead indices with a breakout to new highs. The MACD is still on a 'sell' trigger, but other technicals are bullish once more.
Read more

Buyers Defend Support On Higher Volume Accumulation

Image
After a couple of weeks of selling, buyers decided to step in and reverse the near term trend. Buying volume stepped up in confirmed accumulation. It was a good trade for those who took advantage, and it's increasingly looking like new trading ranges will come out of this. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had a support level to work with, but will likely find resistance at its 20-day MA.
Read more

Archive

Show more