After the "Black Thursday" sale it was no surprise to see indices recover some of those losses. From the top, we had the Russell 2000 ($IWM) finding support just above $270. We may see some upside, but look for sellers/shorts to reappear when prices get close to the 200-day MA (near $278). Technicals are mixed, but important to note is that stochastics have been running below the 50-midline since late August, which is a confirmed bearish setup, despite the October rally. I would be happier waiting for a move above the 50-day MA if wanting a long-term bullish play, otherwise fade the rally to the 200-day/50-day MAs. The equal-weighted S&P ($SPXEW) managed to find support at its 50-day MA, but this is a range bound index, and we are trading in the middle of that range, so I wouldn't put too much weight on moving average support. And as I said before, "bull traps" typically come all they way back to supportof the prior range. Technicals are net bullish...

It has been a long time since we have seen a day like today, but it does offer clarity after week's of range bound trading. In the end, it turned into the battle of the equal-weighted S&P versus AI-centric Semiconductors in determining larger control of the market and it looks like Semiconductors have won out, but the larger bullish trend is still intact. Semiconductors are interesting because they have been steadily gaining until the latter part of 2025, when they blew upwards. We are now seeing mean reversion as the index makes a return towards its former set of trendlines. The interesting thing about Semiconductors is if you look at the projected measured move target down, it neatly intersects the first of the two bullish trendlines. What this means for individual AI stocks - government policy to Data Centers - remains to be seen, but in all likelihood we will have some consolidation, but can expect the trend to continue upwards similar to how tech markets recovered after ...

The Equal-Weighted S&P ($SPXEW) lost ground today, but it's the last main attraction for bulls. The trend from September's lows has defied two shorting opportunities previously marked at declining trend resistance and the 50-day MA. The 20-day MA may offer itself as support if selling was to contine beyond today, but this is at least a workable bounce zone. Technicals are net bullish, but the bounce off September lows has been running in a narrow range and looks prone to a widening, not necessarily a reversal.

Indices are at an inflection point with 200-day MAs acting as last major support before we have to look elsewhere. We will start with the Russell 2000 ($IWM). The break of the declining trend managed to survive until a test of its 50-day MA, then sellers kicked it back to its 200-day MA. I'm not particularly optimistic for this test holding, but until we get a loss of $275 there is a chance bulls could hold out. Aggressive longs could fish for GTC 'buy' orders around $275 and bail if $270 is lost.

It was a stealth setup for the Russell 2000 ($IWM), hiding below its 200-day MA and declining trend before buyers made a higher volume break of resistance (on confirmed accumulation). The next target is the 50-day MA for those who took advantage of the break. Supporting the move are 'buy' signals for the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. When it gets there, or tags the July swing low, we will get a better idea as to whether bears arae in control or buyers have enough momentum to mount a challenge of $300. The Nasdaq ($COMPQ) rallied from support and has reached its first target of its 20-day MA. Next is the 50-day MA. Technicals remain net negative. The S&P didn't register a breakout given it's still stuck inside its range, but it could do tomorrow. The only problem is that it has already banked two days of gains, so the risk:reward isn't entirely favorable. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is down at the October spike low and is an aggressive long trade for thos...

There may be an aggressive long for the Russell 2000 by virtue of its under-the-radar action. Systems tracking trend breaks or moving average breaks will still be in the dark, but looking at the chart, there may be a subtle long setup. Risk-reward is easy to measure as an undercut of Friday's low (on a closing basis) would negate the traade. Initial upside target is the 50-day MA. What I also like? The uptick in relative performance over the Nasdaq.