It has been a long time since we have seen a day like today, but it does offer clarity after week's of range bound trading. In the end, it turned into the battle of the equal-weighted S&P versus AI-centric Semiconductors in determining larger control of the market and it looks like Semiconductors have won out, but the larger bullish trend is still intact. Semiconductors are interesting because they have been steadily gaining until the latter part of 2025, when they blew upwards. We are now seeing mean reversion as the index makes a return towards its former set of trendlines. The interesting thing about Semiconductors is if you look at the projected measured move target down, it neatly intersects the first of the two bullish trendlines. What this means for individual AI stocks - government policy to Data Centers - remains to be seen, but in all likelihood we will have some consolidation, but can expect the trend to continue upwards similar to how tech markets recovered after ...

The Equal-Weighted S&P ($SPXEW) lost ground today, but it's the last main attraction for bulls. The trend from September's lows has defied two shorting opportunities previously marked at declining trend resistance and the 50-day MA. The 20-day MA may offer itself as support if selling was to contine beyond today, but this is at least a workable bounce zone. Technicals are net bullish, but the bounce off September lows has been running in a narrow range and looks prone to a widening, not necessarily a reversal.

Indices are at an inflection point with 200-day MAs acting as last major support before we have to look elsewhere. We will start with the Russell 2000 ($IWM). The break of the declining trend managed to survive until a test of its 50-day MA, then sellers kicked it back to its 200-day MA. I'm not particularly optimistic for this test holding, but until we get a loss of $275 there is a chance bulls could hold out. Aggressive longs could fish for GTC 'buy' orders around $275 and bail if $270 is lost.

It was a stealth setup for the Russell 2000 ($IWM), hiding below its 200-day MA and declining trend before buyers made a higher volume break of resistance (on confirmed accumulation). The next target is the 50-day MA for those who took advantage of the break. Supporting the move are 'buy' signals for the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. When it gets there, or tags the July swing low, we will get a better idea as to whether bears arae in control or buyers have enough momentum to mount a challenge of $300. The Nasdaq ($COMPQ) rallied from support and has reached its first target of its 20-day MA. Next is the 50-day MA. Technicals remain net negative. The S&P didn't register a breakout given it's still stuck inside its range, but it could do tomorrow. The only problem is that it has already banked two days of gains, so the risk:reward isn't entirely favorable. Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) is down at the October spike low and is an aggressive long trade for thos...

There may be an aggressive long for the Russell 2000 by virtue of its under-the-radar action. Systems tracking trend breaks or moving average breaks will still be in the dark, but looking at the chart, there may be a subtle long setup. Risk-reward is easy to measure as an undercut of Friday's low (on a closing basis) would negate the traade. Initial upside target is the 50-day MA. What I also like? The uptick in relative performance over the Nasdaq.

We are starting to see a larger split in market performance across sectors as Large Caps attract buyers, and Tech stocks attract tumbleweed. Caught in the middle are Small Caps. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) chalked up another accumulation day without breaking resistance (or the 200-day MA). Tomorrow is a chance for the Russell 2000 to pick a side; will it break or will it succumb to selling pressure? Looks like an options swing trade as the next move could be telling.