We have a bit of a mixed bag. Markets which were oversold and developing swing lows are now struggling to mount a bounce. Those in trading ranges are still in the upper bounds of those ranges, and could still breakout, but are likely to be influenced by their much weaker brethren. Bitcoin is holding its breakout, but today's doji after yesterday's move lower doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence. Starting with the Russell 2000 ($IWM), we have an index on a fast track to test the 200-day MA. The early September swing low failed and we don't really have a reversal candlestick here, but we could see an attempt at one, once the index tests its 200-day MA. What we need to be careful of is a crash scenario that can emerge in a scenario like this (deeply oversold and net bearish).

Tomorrow we are going to see how strong the 'bull trap' is in the Nasdaq as Friday's finish tagged resistance. Volume was down, although technicals are net bullish. More likely, we will see some 'pennant' like formation over the coming week, before get another another solid white candlestick.

The first attempt to rally off a bottom stalled out at its 20-day MA. We now have invalidated that low, so are looking for the next one. Today's dragonfly doji on higher volumem distribution is another such attempt. We have oversold momentum and bearish net technicals. It's only worth it if the index rallies from the open; a close into the spike low negates the reversal play - we really want to see a gap higher and a solid white candlestick.

So much for the questionable breakout in the Nasdaq or the potential short play in the S&P, both were swotted away with substantial gains in each index. There remains doubt across both indices, but if each are able to retain the bulk of their gains over the coming days then the bearish thesis will be much weakened. The Nasdaq was the biggest mover over the past couple of days was the Nasdaq. The doji breakout was a non-issue and those who bought the 26K tests will be sitting pretty. Today's gain was enough to register a new high breakout, but it's vulnerable to a 'bull trap', particularly if sellers are able to drive the index back below 27K. However, we did see a new MACD, On-Balance-Volume, and +DI/-DI 'buy' signals, returning technicals to a net bullish state.

Bitcoin is again on the move, looking more bullish than my initial "bullish outlook". I had looked for a more pronounced 'bear trap' on a duck to the 50-day MA, but instead buyers stepped in and shorts were forced to cover buy. This is excellent right-hand-base development on the longer weekly chart, and it's hard not to see Bitcoin challenging $125K by 2028, if not sooner. It will still be volatile, but long-term investors waiting for a new entry opportunity should wait for prices to narrow again in low volume, then buy-and-not-look-back. Long term buyers should not get sucked into the daily machinations of cryptocurrencies, and should have a proper long term outlook of years - not months or weeks... Anything shorter will need to use adequate risk:reward. If I was to stick my neck out, I might look for $100K for end-of-year and measure risk based on that target. As an asset, I hate cryptocurrencies (and the sphere around them), but they do appear to be influenc...

After the Fed driven sell-off that delivered support breaks for some of the indices there was an attempt by bulls to stage a bounce, but traders weren't able to build on the sizable opening gaps, and some indices drifted lower by the close. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) lost the most ground off the open. However, today's close was enough to regain support, leaving yesterday's action as a potential 'bear trap'. Technicals are net bearish oversold. And today's buying volume was below yesterday's selling (distribution). The S&P finished the day where it started, which is also 20-day MA resistance. Aggressive traders could go with a swing trade as the next move could be sizable (particularly if the move is higher). The Nasdaq is dominated by the trading range, but within that we have a consolidation triangle. As it stands, the index is at resistance of this triangle, and given recent selling volume I would be looking for a move to close today...