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Russell 2000 Undercuts 200-Day MA Despite Today's Buying

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Buyers step up after yesterday's losses, losses that registered as distribution. Buyers returned on good volume, and in some cases, exceeded the losses of yesterday. But the buying was not necessarily enough to reverse the damage of Wednesday's losses. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) did not survive its third test of its 200-day MA in the space of a couple of weeks. Technicals are now net bearish with a new (strong) MACD 'sell' trigger. Traders need to be careful here. Today's buying (a "two-bar reversal") in an oversold condition should register as a long-trade opportunity, and it may yet still do, but with the psychological break of the 200-day MA it's hard to see this turning into a strong bounce. And we are now in the kind of situation where crashes emerge. We should see a move to the 200-day or even the 20-day MA, but beyond that, it's hard to say.
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Bulls Were Unable To Build On Morning Optimism

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After the Fed driven sell-off that delivered support breaks for some of the indices there was an attempt by bulls to stage a bounce, but traders weren't able to build on the sizable opening gaps, and some indices drifted lower by the close. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) lost the most ground off the open. However, today's close was enough to regain support, leaving yesterday's action as a potential 'bear trap'. Technicals are net bearish oversold. And today's buying volume was below yesterday's selling (distribution). The S&P finished the day where it started, which is also 20-day MA resistance. Aggressive traders could go with a swing trade as the next move could be sizable (particularly if the move is higher). The Nasdaq is dominated by the trading range, but within that we have a consolidation triangle. As it stands, the index is at resistance of this triangle, and given recent selling volume I would be looking for a move to close today...
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S&P Squeeze On Distribution - Short Ready?

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It has been a bit of a mixed bag for indices as bulls looks to restablish breakouts and/or defend support. However, shorts may be the one to benefit in the near term. The S&P is getting squeezed into the 'bull trap' left by the inverse hammer. It's a good swing trade play, but given today's higher volume distribution I would look for a bearish break with a near term target of 50-day MA. Technicals are mostly bullish, but On-Balance-Volume has been trending down since August - running against price action.
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Russell 2000 ($IWM) Finds Support At 200-day MA

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After reversing from its 20-day MA it managed to find support at its 200-day MA with a bullish 'hammer' at oversold conditions on heavy volume - an ideal reversal scenario. Friday's trading brought a more indecisive spinning top, but it did manage to close higher. For Monday, we will want to see what happens when it gets back to the 20-day MA responsible for the reversal on the sizable bearish engulfing pattern.
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Russell 2000 Reverses Off 20-Day MA As S&P And Nasdaq Breakout

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Markets are breaking two ways - Small Caps heading south while Tech and Large Caps head north, but even Small Caps have reason for optimism. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) bounced off its 200-day MA, reaching its 20-day MA until today's reversal dragged it back with a bearish engulfing pattern. Despite the bearish candlestick the MACD still managed a 'buy' trigger and selling volume was light. I would be looking for a bullish test and buyers to step in. Momentum is slowly improving, so I'll be watching for bullish divergence in technicals.
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Swing Low Bounces Struggle For Traction

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Markets swing lows were undone by early enthusiasm failing to build on opening gaps. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) had looked the most likely to shape a bounce worthy of note, but the early gap higher was the extent of the gains and by the close of business we had an indecisive 'black' candlestick style 'spinning top' - not a candle to get excited about. Buyers of the bounce will need to be ready for a move down into the gap, and maybe as far as a second test of the 200-day MA. Technicals are net negative.
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Bitcoin Makes Second Attempt At Rally Off Breakout Support

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The last couple of days for Bitcoin had pointed to indecision on a series of doji, but today's white candlestick above 82.5K breakout support suggests we may yet get another kick on higher. In a manner, it's a victim of its own success as market indices have headed in the other direction. On a positive note, 82.5K should be strong support. If there was a concern, it's that On-Balance-Volume is running below its 20-day MA which may suggest undercover distribution is at work; if 82.K support is lost then further loses are likely.
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Markets Mixed Bag As Bitcoin Breakout Holds

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We have a bit of a mixed bag. Markets which were oversold and developing swing lows are now struggling to mount a bounce. Those in trading ranges are still in the upper bounds of those ranges, and could still breakout, but are likely to be influenced by their much weaker brethren. Bitcoin is holding its breakout, but today's doji after yesterday's move lower doesn't inspire a whole lot of confidence. Starting with the Russell 2000 ($IWM), we have an index on a fast track to test the 200-day MA. The early September swing low failed and we don't really have a reversal candlestick here, but we could see an attempt at one, once the index tests its 200-day MA. What we need to be careful of is a crash scenario that can emerge in a scenario like this (deeply oversold and net bearish).
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