Monday, May 23, 2022

Spike low achieved - markets to confirm

Friday's spike lows helped mark an anchor point for a trade worthy reversal. Today's action maintained the sanctity of the spike low as markets failed to close below the prior low, while also managing to finish the day higher. We still have to get beyond the range of what is now looking like a 2-week(+) base, but in an oversold market this is a good place to be. 

The Nasdaq is on the verge of a new MACD trigger 'buy' as other indicators remained net bearish.  Confirmation of a bottom will come on a break above 12,000. 

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Friday, May 20, 2022

Buyers still have work to do.

Sellers pressured the bounce yesterday and attempted to make amends today, although there is still work to do. The Russell 2000 had the best of the action as it pushed its way back into Tuesday's trading candlestick.  Today's gain came with a 'buy' trigger in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume in support of an acceleration in relative performance against the Nasdaq and S&P.

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Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Bulls gain traction

Buyers were able to maintain the buying from last Thursday with a close at the high of the day across lead markets.  A challenge of the last swing high in early May would set up the reversal rally but there is a couple of weeks work required before markets are able to get there. 

For the Nasdaq, we have the 'buy' trigger in On-Balance-Volume with an improving relative performance against the S&P.  The MACD is well below the bullish zero line, so the first 'buy' trigger might not be the one to go for.

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Sunday, May 15, 2022

Markets make fresh attempt at swing lows

Markets are attempting to build new swing lows from a condition of price extremes both in breadth, and relative to their long term (200-day) moving average. 

If we are to get a bottom then we not only need to see gains, but we also need to how markets react on the next loss.  The March swing low started like what we saw on Friday, but when selling emerged buyers could stop it with a consecutive days of buying - at least not until Friday.  On the plus side, On-Balance-Volume is on a 'buy' trigger. 

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