Posts

Showing posts from September, 2015

Bulls Make Presence Felt

Image
It was a better day for bulls as markets registered an accumulation day with respectable gains. However, only one index, the Dow, made a test of resistance (200-MA on hourly) and was initially rebuffed. The S&P registered nearly a 2% gain. The 20-day MA looks to be the next area of resistance as today marked a sharp break of declining resistance.

Modest Losses on Lighter Volume

Image
It wasn't a day of carnage as yesterday, and with support coming into play for certain indices there is a chance bulls might be able to mount something here. Volume was down on yesterday, another sign sellers could be exhausting themselves out. The Russell 2000, having exceeded its August, could be the first to mount a recovery. Keep an eye on relative performance to the S&P; an uptick here could be the cue for a rally back to channel resistance - a decent return.  Alternatively, fish with GTC buy orders down at channel support.

Distribution Selling Takes Chunk Out of Markets

Image
No doubt who controlled market action today, and Bears weren't stopping at August lows either. The Russell 2000 experienced the biggest hit, undercutting the August low. Next up is the October 2014 low.

Wild End to Session

Image
It was a day of two extremes: bulls took the early advantage, but bears struck hard in the last couple of hours of trading. The S&P rallied as far as its 50-day MA before bears pressured, ending with some shorts profit taking to return some of the losses. \The S&P is enjoying a sharp relative advantage against the Russell 2000, but the 'spinning top' candlestick is a 50:50 play.

Down But Not Out

Image
Markets took further losses, but a late rally put a bullish gloss on the day. With the DAX kicking in demand at the August low (not helped by Volkswagen), there is a chance for the S&P to build a swing low here. Volume climbed in distribution, which isn't great, but beats the tepid, nondescript action of yesterday. The S&P hasn't yet triggered a 'sell' trigger in the MACD, but is close to generating a strong 'sell'. Remaining OBV, ADX and Stochastics are in bearish territory. The Nasdaq gained a little ground on the open price and the 'bullish' hammer would offer more if oversold 'stochastics' were in play, which are currently treading the middle ground. The Russell 2000 also finished with a bullish doji. Like other indices, this reversal occurred in a bit of a vacuum, away from logical support. As the index which is experiencing the most relative weakness, it should be watched closely if it's able to regain its mojo. Stre...

Modest Selling on Light Volume

Image
Yesterday's action had set things up for a big follow through down, but today's trading was very modest. Volume was also well down on yesterday. Volkswagen's disaster cast a malaise on the day, so it was perhaps surprising the news didn't trigger broader selling. While I still think a retest of August lows is needed (at the least), today's action does suggest another bounce may be in the making. The S&P continues to out perform the Russell 2000 and today's action was inside yesterday's range in a possible bullish harami cross; a break of today's high of 1,949 would confirm. The two side-by-side doji in the Nasdaq make for an interesting play tomorrow. It looks a straight coin toss, although the technicals play perhaps in favour of bears. The index looks rich relative to other indices, but rich can get richer. Play a break of the 2-day high/low with a stop on the flip side. The Russell 2000 did pressure and break yesterday's lows. Shor...

Another Wave of Selling

Image
A late recovery managed to put some gloss on today's action. Volume climbed to register as distribution. The S&P is in the process of regaining a relative performance advantage over the Russell 2000. Momentum remains on the bearish side of the fence with a sub-50 reading.

Market Indecision

Image
It was a mixed day for markets. Bulls will take heart there wasn't an immediate follow through lower as Friday's selling had looked to suggest. Bears will still consider it a favourable market, but will need a more decisive sell off to break the support which remains. The S&P is delicately poised. A loss of 1,956 will open thing up and should quickly offer a retest of 1.867. Today's volume was very light, but enough to maintain the 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume.

Distribution Selling

Image
The Fed decision delivered the 'sell the news' action, while Friday followed through on this reversal. With earlier consolidation breakouts now fading to 'bull traps' the scene is set for further selling in the early part of next week. On the flip side, a retest of August lows could offer a nice long set up which could merge with a 'Santa Rally' later in the year.  If bulls are to recover last week's breakout, they will need a good show of strength tomorrow. Friday's distribution in the S&P was comparable to that delivered in August. The move came with a 'sell' trigger for On-Balance-Volume. But all of this is building on the relative underperformance of the S&P to the Russell 2000 dating back to the end of August.

Second Day of Gains

Image
The more this rally distances itself from the prior consolidation, the greater the chance the Fed decision (irrespective of rate raise or not) will act as a 'sell the news' catalyst. Markets have gained in what ranks as accumulation, but volume is still relatively light compared to the selling which cut through the markets in August. The Nasdaq is knocking on the door of the prior trading range, and the get-out-at-breakeven crowd will probably be looking to bail out. Add to this overhead resistance of the 50-day and 200-day MAs adds another level of supply to consider. Traders who were smart enough to buy near the spike low will also be looking to bank some handsome profits.

Tight Action Holds. Decision Day Moves To Tuesday

Image
Everything is really gearing towards Thursday's rate decision, but there may be a fake move before then. Shorts may find joy in the Tech indices given the favourable risk:reward, but I wouldn't be surprised if such short positions were whipped out before then - so buyers and sellers beware. The S&P is balancing under performance against the Russell 2000 with 'buy' triggers the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. As today's action finished lower the expectation will be for a consolidation breakdown tomorrow, but take nothing for granted. Trade the break.

Friday's Narrow Range - Monday Decision Day?

Image
A late flourish on Friday has opened up the chance for a big short covering rally. Shorts will need a loss of  Friday's lows to bring a break of rising support. Longs probably have the easier path, but it could be a volatile session. The S&P has coiled nicely, but trading volume was light on Friday. Play for break of support or resistance.

Sellers Challenge Early Buying

Image
Bulls managed to reclaim most of yesterday's 'real body' losses, but by the close of business had given back half of those gains. Creeping higher highs across indices will be under threat tomorrow, and if they break, then things are likely to get ugly quickly. The S&P finished with a MACD trigger 'buy' as it closed on rising support. A loss of this opens up a retest of 1,867, and maybe a measured move lower (which is 1,760). Bulls will be looking for a fresh challenge of today's losses and a 'buy' in On-Balance-Volume.

Bears Pressure But Haven't Won Control

Image
It was an ugly sell off, but Tuesday's lows weren't challenged and this will stand in bulls favor tomorrow. However, the day itself was clearly one where bears had control from the open through to the close. There is still the need to break the consolidation, and bulls will look to contain further losses tomorrow. The S&P is on the verge of a MACD trigger 'buy' and On-Balance-Volume 'buy'. However, it's still clearly underperforming against the Russell 2000.

S&P and Dow Coiling

Image
The S&P and Dow Jones is tightening into a coil, and coils typical lead to big reactions. It could be a few days before the coil is tight enough to spring, but both markets are consolidating on declining volume. However, the Dow edges in favour of bears with some distribution days in the mix, although it's countered by a MACD trigger 'buy'.

Mixed Bag on Jobs Data

Image
An erratic response which saw rapid gains followed by a return to earlier selling left markets struggling for traction. A move to retest lows looks favored, but selling volume was lighter which suggests bears may be running out of steam. The S&P had climbed out of oversold levels, which means there is a room to return to such conditions. The S&P hasn't yet done enough to generate a higher low.

Sellers Make Late Claim

Image
Traders hadn't forgotten the events of last week and were quick to sell their positions in the face of tomorrow's NFP data. Today's close in the S&P left a bearish inverse doji (gravestone doji), marking supply above 1,950. Bears will feel confident heading into tomorrow's data, assuming Thursday's 1,975 high is not breached. The downside target is a retest of 1,867. A move higher will set up a challenge of 2,044.

Distribution Selling Returns

Image
After the late recovery last week, sellers again made markets their home. Sizable losses were accompanied with higher volume distribution, although volume was down on earlier panic.  Another pass at August lows looks likely. The S&P is again heading to the 10% 200-day MA envelope. Relative performance is shifting away from Large Caps to more speculative indices, which is bullish in a rising market, but in a falling market suggests a lack of sanctuary.

Archive

Show more