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Showing posts from January, 2017

Markets Sell Off But Recover Into Close

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Trump kicked off the week with some market turmoil, but market participants still seem to consider his presence good rather than bad for the market.  The only exception was the Russell 2000, which sold off and stayed sold off. This has created a 'bull trap' next to last week's 'bear trap'; a neutral setup. For the Russell 2000, a loss of 1,341 opens up for a retracement down to the 200-day MA at 1,233 and the November swig low of 1,156 (which looks a long, long way away). Technicals saw the trend metric +DI/-DI turn negative as the MACD pulled away from a potential trigger 'buy'; shorts should probably be looking at shorting rallies from here.

Markets Finish Week Maintaining Breakouts

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Friday's action was relatively muted, but really it was all about holding the breakouts generated in the first half of the week. While low unemployment suggests the economy is running close to maximum, it's hard to see when this Trump rally will end. It looks like Trump himself will probably kill it with his immigration policy as skilled workers (H1B, Greencard workers) get caught in the sweep. But until then, with buyers exceeding sellers, bulls don't yet have a reason to worry. The S&P has net positive technicals, with relative performance against Small Caps also ticking higher. Of technicals, On-Balance-Volume is looking the weakest and is likely to be the first to turn negative (and suggest sellers are gaining the upper hand).

Market Breather

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After two days of gain delivering broad breakouts, today saw markets stall a little as those gains were digested. Despite this, the S&P was still able to offer a MACD trigger 'buy'.  Relative performance also got a little uptick against the Russell 2000. With technicals all in the green any additional weakness will likely be viewed as a pullback buying opportuniy

Markets Add to Breakouts

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Another good day for indices as Dow breaks resistance to follow the lead of the S&P and Nasdaq yesterday. The Dow also delivered a MACD trigger 'buy' and +DI/-DI crossover on higher volume accumulation.

Markets Breakout

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After yesterday saw the Russell 2000 finally switch to a net bearish turn in technicals, today saw markets move sharply higher.  This generated breakouts for Tech and Large Cap indices. The S&P enjoyed higher volume accumulation as it cleared the consolidation dating back to the start of December. The gains, while welcome, weren't enough to generate a MACD trigger 'buy'

Russell 2000 Turns Net Bearish Technically

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It was another day of modest change with little real turn in bullish/bearish outlook.  The Russell 2000 was the only one index to mark a technical change with a net bearish switch in technicals (MACD, Slow Stochastics, On-Balance-Volume).

No Major Change

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Trump's inauguration looks to have kept traders distracted as markets experienced a relatively quiet Friday, despite some higher volume trading. The S&P experienced higher volume accumulation but was unable to get past 2,275. Monday is another day, but keep an eye on the MACD; a gain with a new 'buy' trigger well above the bullish zero line will attract technical traders on the long side. This in turn will encourage short covering.

Small Cap Losses Accelerate

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Small Caps again took the brunt of the selling as Shorts took advantage of yesterday's small rally back to former support (turned resistance) to enter positions. With the 'bull trap' in full effect, the next target down for the index is 1,308. Of supporting technicals, only Stochastics [39,1] is left to break its bullish alignment,

Minor Day for Markets

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No need to say much for today as very little happened in the market. The Russell 2000 attempted to undo yesterday's breakdown, but hadn't recovered enough by end of day to negate it.

Russell 2000 Breaks Lower

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In the end, it was Theresa May and not Trump which saw the Russell 2000 cut through support and confirm the earlier 'bull trap'.  This change coincided with a 'sell' trigger in +DI/-DI. Only stochastics are hanging on to its 'buy' signal.

Russell 2000 Comes Back From The Brink

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There was no wiggle room for the index heading into Friday as it managed to claw back the 'breakdown'. It went one step better and posted one of the better performances on Friday.  While the index has come back from support, it hasn't yet challenged the consolidation 'bull trap' - but look for this on Monday.

Russell 2000 Under Pressure

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During early afternoon trading it was looking like the Russell 2000 was going to break support and leave a 'bull trap'.  While the 'bull trap' remains in play the loss of support hasn't been confirmed which would show a reversal. However, this is acting as a lead index and will determine what may come for the Nasdaq and S&P.

Bulls Make Back Early Afternoon Losses

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It was another good day for bulls, particularly for the S&P. An acceleration in weakness brought about in late morning action was reversed with steadying buying over the last two hours of trading. The S&P has been range bound since early December. Today's action didn't change that, but it suggests the breakout - when it comes - will be higher. The Nasdaq also felt pressure with it own sell off. Volume was down on recent weeks, but it was enough to keep bulls in control. The Russell 2000 had a quiet day, registering just a 0.05% gain. The best of the news was it not drifting back to support, where the risk of a major breakdown lurks. For tomorrow, look for bulls to continue their good work.  The Russell 2000 looks least likely to do anything exciting, but the S&P (and Dow) is well positioned for a breakout. You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog. I trade a small account on eToro, and invest using Ameritrade. If you would li

Gains Posted But Markets Quiet

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There wasn't much to add to yesterday's action.  The S&P closed with an indecisive doji, but given the context it was really a non-day with no advantage to either bulls or bears.

Small Caps Feels The Heat

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It was a generally quiet day for markets with Small Caps feeling most of the pressure. The S&P took a quarter percentage loss as it gave back a small amount of last week's gain. There was no technical change on this loss. Nothing to be too concerned about.

First Week of 2017 Ends on High

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The bright start to the year continued as bulls were able to maintain buying pressure for three of the four first trading days of the year. The S&P closed near the highs of 2016 with all key moving averages in upward trends. The MACD is still holding to a 'sell' trigger, but this is heading towards a new 'buy' trigger, which given the strong position relative to the zero line would instead register as a pullback 'buying' opportunity.

Buyers Start 2017 in Fine Form

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End-of-year profit taking has given way to start-of-year buying. The best performer on the day was the Russell 2000. It gained over 1.5% as it broke upside from its consolidation. While the gain did little to reverse the MACD 'sell' trigger it does look like action has kicked off a measured move higher.

New Year, New Opportunities

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2017 opened with a positive start on higher (albeit low) volume accumulation. The late flourish in the market following the election results helped close 2016 on a positive note. So what will 2017 bring? The S&P wasn't able to hold the bulk of Tuesday's gains, but it did reverse the damage from last Friday.  Not surprisingly, recent volume has been very light so it will be important to see how this changes as traders go back to work. The only technical change over the holiday period was a 'sell' in the MACD.

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