Showing posts from April, 2011

Daily Market Commentary: Dow Advances and Semiconductors Stall

The Dow pushed higher for a third day in a row, taking it well beyond 12,400 support. ($INDU) via The gains in the Dow helped pull the S&P higher ($SPX) via And even the Russell 2000 ($RUT) via Although the Nasdaq 100 finished with an inside day at breakout support. ($NDX) via Likewise the semiconductor index also closed lower with an inside day. ($SOX) via For Friday, the inside days of the semiconductor index and Nasdaq 100 offer the best trading opportunity. The Nasdaq 100 might offer the better prospect given it is lying at support; a loss of support and it's a bull trap (with a stop on a close above the 2-day high), while a gain defines the risk on a break of Thursday's low. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Preview

Daily Market Commentary: Another Advance

Decent gains on low volume. The Fed didn't send any shock waves through the market which was enough to keep the optimism flowing. The S&P tested support of 1,343 intraday and may do so again over the coming days, but it set up the battleground for buyers to fight it out at. Technicals bullish. ($SPX) via It was a similar story for the Nasdaq. Maybe technicals are a little more bullish? Helped by a relative leadership role to the S&P. ($COMPQ) via Small Caps had their moment in the sun as they closed above 855 resistance, marking a new multi-year high for the index. ($RUT) via The Nasdaq 100 also broke resistance. ($NDX) via All-in-All, another good day for bulls. Bears have nowhere to hide... Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can be Previewed

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish Breakouts

Yesterday saw the low key setups, today saw the glory-volume breaks; a good day for the indices. The S&P followed the Dow by slicing through resistance (1,343) to a new yearly high on improving technical strength. Volume rose to register an accumulation day. ($SPX) via The Dow had the perfect follow through to yesterday's low volume consolidation. ($INDU) via The semiconductor index pushed beyond its 50-day MA. ($SOX) via Which helped the Nasdaq break resistance. ($COMPQ) via Only the Russell 2000 disappointed, but only in failing to make a new 2011 high; a minor disappointment. ($RUT) via Indices are nicely set to make further advances, even if tomorrow sees another low volume consolidation. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon is the Senior Market Technician and Community Director for . I offer a range of stock trading strategies for global markets which can

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors Net Bullish Technically

It was a day for low key moves. While the point changes were small, the overall picture remained buoyant. The semiconductor index had the best of the day's action. While it didn't do enough to even post a points worth of gain, it did enough to turn net bullish technically. The breakout is holding above both declining resistance and its 50-day MA. Can it continue? ($SOX) via The Dow changed little but did more in doing so - the critical breakout is holding. Can the S&P follow suit? ($INDU) via The Nasdaq continued its push into the February breakdown gap. Technicals are net bullish and rising. Will it be the next index to make a new 2011 high? ($COMPQ) via Small Caps have taken the foot off the pedal a little, but it did enough to defend its 20-day MA. Upcoming MACD trigger 'buy' in the works. ($RUT) via The indices are nicely set for tomorrow. Follow Me on Twitter Dr. Declan Fallon

Daily Market Commentary: Small Gains on MACD 'Buy's

Markets held all of yesterday's gains and added a little more. Volume dropped, but for many indices there was a technical improvement with new MACD trigger 'buys' in particular. The S&P was the perfect case in point. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq did likewise. There was even a push into the February breakdown gap which negated what had looked to have been an April bull trap. ($COMPQ) via The Russell 2000 had a quiet day with little technical change. A challenge on 855 is next and today's modest gain took it a little closer to this goal. ($RUT) via The Dow took itself further away from 12,400 support. It too enjoyed a MACD trigger 'buy' ($INDU) via Only the semiconductor index eased a little lower at 50-day MA resistance, but yesterday's breakout held. AAAAAAAAG Semiconductor Index - Philadelphia ($SOX) via With the wind on their backs bulls may look to push on Mon

Daily Market Commentary: Dow Breakout

There was no shortage of action in the markets, but the index with the clearest push forward was the Dow. The Dow managed a clear break of 2011 resistance on heavy volume. The MACD lies just shy of a bullish cross (above the bullish zero line), but when it does, technicals will be net bullish. ($INDU) via The break in the Dow is good news for the S&P. While the index lies below 1,343 resistance (a break of which would qualify a new 2011 high), there was a powerful gap above both 20-day and 50-day MAs on higher volume. Watch for upside follow through over the coming days. ($SPX) via The other index to perform well was the Russell 2000. Having ably defended its 50-day MA it went on to negate the bull trap and redefine resistance at 855. As it works towards restoring its market leadership qualities it will drive gains for lagging indices like the S&P and Nasdaq. ($RUT) via The index to recover the most was the semicondu

Daily Market Commentary: Opportunities at 50-day MAs for Small Caps and Dow

It was a low volume consolidation for most markets, recovering a little more of the losses from Monday. A couple of indices offer upside opportunities. The Dow has perhaps the clearest opportunity given it opened at the 50-day MA and pushed on a little. Technicals dropped a little further, but potential buyers might look to take advantage on the premise of a challenge on 12,400 resistance; stops on a loss of the 50-day MA. ($INDU) via The Russell 2000 suffers a little more with indecision. Today's spinning top candlestick reflecting the doubt. However, it hasn't yet violated the 50-day MA in four days of trading and a stop on a loss of 816 might appeal, as might a thrust lower which was to recover as quickly as it went down (i.e. a push which knocked out the likely set of existing stops below 816). ($RUT) via Look to these two indices tomorrow to offer some trading opportunities. If the market was to open weak, then the semiconductor

Daily Market Commentary: Bear Gaps

Markets didn't take too kindly to the debt downgrade by the 'shouldn't be listened to' S&P rating agency but were able to regain some of the lost ground by the close of business. The Nasdaq showed the impact of today's announcement the best; a powerful gap down against Friday's higher close, a sell off which fed off this momentum, but a recovery which took the index back to its open price, although well off where it finished Friday. Higher volume ranked as distribution, but relative to the volume selling in Large Caps it wasn't so bad. Technicals, not surprisingly, worked their way lower. ($COMPQ) via The S&P took some solace from defending former channel resistance turned support. Unfortunately, there was more volume selling than in the Nasdaq and it did close below its 20-day and 50-day MAs. ($SPX) via The Dow made the best of a rough day, recovering enough to actually finish above its 50-day MA. Volume re

Weekly Market Commentary: Down But Not Out - Again

The weekly view of the markets remains bullish enough, helped in large part by the successful defense of the breakout in the Nasdaq 100. Selling volume has also been light. While many indices remain stuck under resistance, there are still broad bullish channels at work. The opportunity for bulls to flex their muscles will come when markets drift far enough sideways to hit support of these channels - then bulls will have something concrete to work with. The Nasdaq 100 has the chops to muscle higher. Notice how the MACD histogram continues to make higher (reaction) highs and the current decline has effectively flatlined (i.e. not getting any weaker). ($NDX) via While the breakout continues to hold sway in the Nasdaq 100, the Nasdaq has a good opportunity to follow higher. Nasdaq via The Nasdaq bullish percents have also dug in a 60% support (good enough to give this rally another push with the majority of stocks on 'buy' signals) ($BPCO

Daily Market Commentary: Defence of Key Moving Averages

It was a reasonably good day for markets. Buyers were able to defend 20-day and/or 50-day moving averages, in some cases with higher volume. The S&P finished with a bullish hammer on its 20-day MA, although the lack of oversold stochastics weakens the reversal potential of this candlestick. The low of the day almost back tested former channel resistance (turned support). As a sidenote, there was a 'buy' trigger for on-balance-volume. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq defended its 20-day MA as the MACD switched to a 'sell' trigger. ($COMPQ) via The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA also turned to the "Dark Side" as technicals finished net bearish. This will increase selling pressure in the parent index. ($NAA50R) via The Russell 2000 was able to defend its 50-day MA and finished the day at the day's high. ($RUT) via While the Dow spiked low at its 50-day MA, but like for

Daily Market Commentary: Stall at Key Moving Averages

It wasn't surprising to see buyers step in at key 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Although light volume reflected a truer lack of buyer enthusiasm. The S&P finished on an indecisive doji, backed by a MACD 'sell' trigger. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq rebounded a little, having ducked below its 50-day MA yesterday it was able to close above it today. via While the Russell 2000 dipped down to its 50-day MA at the low of the day before recovering by the close ($RUT) via While the Dow also pegged its 20-day MA with a doji and MACD 'sell' trigger of its own. ($INDU) via The presence of the 20-day and 50-day MAs offered buyers an opening which they kind-of half took, based on the doji candlesticks displayed across the different market charts. However, the indecision doesn't appear to be enough to halt the momentum of bears. Bulls will likely have another crack at it in the morning, but if


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