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After the Fed driven sell-off that delivered support breaks for some of the indices there was an attempt by bulls to stage a bounce, but traders weren't able to build on the sizable opening gaps, and some indices drifted lower by the close. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) lost the most ground off the open. However, today's close was enough to regain support, leaving yesterday's action as a potential 'bear trap'. Technicals are net bearish oversold. And today's buying volume was below yesterday's selling (distribution). The S&P finished the day where it started, which is also 20-day MA resistance. Aggressive traders could go with a swing trade as the next move could be sizable (particularly if the move is higher). The Nasdaq is dominated by the trading range, but within that we have a consolidation triangle. As it stands, the index is at resistance of this triangle, and given recent selling volume I would be looking for a move to close today...
Buyers look to halt losses across indices
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Friday was options expiration, which spiked volume, but it also saw higher prices for many of the indices.
The Russell 2000 was/is the lead index but it reversed its recent breakout to fall below support, but it did find support at its 20-day MA. Technicals are a little mixed with a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and ADX, but bullish technicals intact for On-Balance-Volume and Stochastics. The index is still outperforming the S&P and Nasdaq.
The Nasdaq is caught below its 50-day and 20-day MA but is looking to shape a higher low.The S&P wasn't quite able to post a higher close, but it remains above its 20-day and 50-day MA as the index looks to reassert a leadership role relative to Small Caps. Of technicals it has a 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume
For tomorrow, we will want to see the Russell 2000 return to challenge its breakout or for the S&P to become the new market leader.
You've now read my opinion, next read Douglas' blog.
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Investments are held in a pension fund on a buy-and-hold strategy.
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Popular posts from this blog
Bulls Were Unable To Build On Morning Optimism
After the Fed driven sell-off that delivered support breaks for some of the indices there was an attempt by bulls to stage a bounce, but traders weren't able to build on the sizable opening gaps, and some indices drifted lower by the close. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) lost the most ground off the open. However, today's close was enough to regain support, leaving yesterday's action as a potential 'bear trap'. Technicals are net bearish oversold. And today's buying volume was below yesterday's selling (distribution). The S&P finished the day where it started, which is also 20-day MA resistance. Aggressive traders could go with a swing trade as the next move could be sizable (particularly if the move is higher). The Nasdaq is dominated by the trading range, but within that we have a consolidation triangle. As it stands, the index is at resistance of this triangle, and given recent selling volume I would be looking for a move to close today...
...And Then Sellers Pushed Hard
I don't know if the equal-weighted S&P is a harbringer of things to come for other indices, but a second day of heavy selling has undercut the 50-day MA, and breakout support. Technicals shifted net bearish with a worrying undercut of mid-level stochastics. The next support level is down at 8,600s, but I want to see oversold stochastics on such a test. However, the ease at which existing support was lost is a concern.
Last Chance To Grab a Bargain?
What carried for the end of the last week still has relevance today. If you haven't been a buyer, you still have a chance now. There are a number of support opportunities across indices. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is holding support of its converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. The 'bull trap' is still the dominant (bearish) play, so if there is an undercut of these moving averages, and by that, I mean an end-of-day close below these averages, then a move back to $287 is favored.
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