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Showing posts from May, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Respectable Gains

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Indices spent little time consolidating, adding to the rally after a one-day stall in the advance. The Nasdaq is in the process of challenging the right-hand-side of the head-and-shoulder pattern. It hasn't negated it, but today's gain is doing its best to do so. Volume was lighter, which doesn't help bulls.

Daily Market Commentary: Minor Losses

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No surprises to see after four days of gains that markets gave up a little ground. The S&P is comfortably holding its breakout. Today's selling came on lighter volume with no discernible technical weakness. The Nasdaq didn't quite get to resistance, but today's action will count as good as a test of said resistance. Likewise, technicals held up well in the face of this selling. The Russell 2000 held on to its 50-day MA, despite the large gap higher yesterday.  A gap fill is distinctly possible over the next few days, but if it doesn't fill (i.e. it breaks above 1,144 before back filling) it will effectively confirm May as a significant swing low. Thursday will probably bring more of the same. As long as bulls can keep action in the top half of action defined by the last four days of trading, it will likely mean a prosperous summer ahead - despite seasonal factors. Now is an important time for firming up the May swing low. --- All Contributions We

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Add to Gains

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Today saw bulls add to recent gains, doing so on higher volume accumulation. Better still, there was a continued swing towards more speculative issues - a good sign for the summer.  The S&P may be at new all-time highs, but the relative swing away from it towards the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 continued.

Daily Market Commentary: S&P Breakout

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Tech indices had got the ball rolling last week (helped in large part by the semiconductor index), and the S&P got its taste with a challenge on the earlier 'bull trap' which is all but negated. The MACD has flattened, so the 'buy' trigger does carry a high risk of whipsaw, but the S&P's On-Balance-Volume trend again points to good accumulation, even if individual volume days remain typically seasonally light. Where there might be a shift for the summer is in a swing back to hard hit Small Caps.

Daily Market Commentary: Nasdaq Breakout

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I missed this one yesterday, but the Nasdaq 100 cleared resistance and is on course to challenge the 52-week high from March. Today's action offered follow through to yesterday's break.

Daily Market Commentary: Russell 2000 Still Under Threat

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The indices which mattered are still under threat from bears, those that don't, had a good day. The S&P made in roads towards resistance, but didn't do enough to challenge the 'bull trap'.  Technicals are a mix of bullish and bearish technicals, and it's hard to set the direction until the trading range is breached to the upside (or down).

Daily Market Commentary: And The Bull-Bear Dance Continues

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Across indices, bears posted a loss to counter yesterday's gain. It didn't change the broader picture, with trading ranges established in all lead indices. The S&P held support at the 50-day MA on higher volume distribution; the second distribution in four days, with no accumulation days for the last of couple of weeks.

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish Follow Through

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Friday's late afternoon buying got some upside follow through on Monday without challenging resistance. There is a chance of further upside until it gets to such resistance. The Nasdaq will soon be meeting converged 50-day MA and consolidation resistance, but it's a relative gain to the S&P will help attract new buyers. It remains to be seen if it can get through this barrier, but recent action is working in its favour (more so than the S&P).

Daily Market Commentary: Late Rally Stalls Bears

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Friday offered bulls something to hold on, but damage from Thursday remains dominant. The S&P held its 50-day MA on buying volume below Thursday's. The buying wasn't sufficient to reverse the MACD trigger 'sell' or the 'sell' between +DI/-DI.  Aggressive buyers may want to take another bite, but the 50-day MA likely won't survive another test; so there isn't much wiggle room.

Daily Market Commentary: Bears Press

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An unusual day of selling. The Russell 2000, which had been the weakest index, managed to rally into the close. The S&P, which had been the strongest index, attracted only limited buying into the close. The S&P held to its 50-day MA, which was perhaps the best thing that could be said for today. Volume climbed in confirmed distribution, the first real sign of selling intent since April's sell off,which suggests further selling is likely in the day's ahead.

Daily Market Commentary: 'Bull Trap' in S&P

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In my opinion, we are looking at the makings  continuation of a scrappy trading range, but by the terms of a breakout failure, today was a 'bull trap' for the S&P and therefore a shorting opportunity. Stops go on a close above today's high.

Daily Market Commentary: Breakout Holding

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A modest day for the indices was best represented by the maintenance of the various breakouts. The S&P didn't add much to yesterday's finish, but it held above key breakout support.

Daily Market Commentary: Large Cap Breakouts

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The week made a bright start with Large Caps breaking resistance. The only disappointment was the light volume; a day like today should have packed far more punch. The risk for bulls is a 'bull trap', but for now the breakout should be honored.

Daily Market Commentary:Bull Kept Waiting

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Bulls made another stab at a recovery on Friday, but volume was lighter than previous selling  The breakouts in Large Caps haven't materialized, but haven't been ruled out either.  While Small Caps remain in trouble despite the recovery. The Russell 2000 opened at support and made it back to Thursday's open, but it remains below the 200-day MA with the 20-day MA fast approaching from above.

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish Failure

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Today can only be described as a classic collapse by bulls. Up until lunch it was plain sailing, but from the time I left work until now when I took a second look at the market, it was a total reversal. It really should have been set up for a breakout - if not today, then tomorrow - but this is looking more unlikely. The S&P tagged resistance, but failed to get beyond it. If there is a consolation for bulls it's that selling volume was light. Why the sell off hurt it hasn't broken support, and until then the breakout is still in play.

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Impress

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Bulls made good ground following yesterday's volume sell off. It was the first accumulation day in over a week and made up for Tuesday's sell off. The S&P scored a bullish piercing pattern, which honored converged 20-day and 50-day MAs. While it's a few days away from a breakout (at best), it does at least set up for a challenge of resistance by end of week.

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Breakdown Before Large Caps Breakout

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In the tug-of-war between bulls and bears, bears were able to make a substantial pull in their favour with the Russell 2000 undercut of the 200-day MA. However, bulls aren't defeated yet as they still have 20-day and 50-day MA support to lean on as part of potential breakouts for the S&P and Dow, but their task has become a little more difficult after yesterday. The finish in the Russell 2000 looked ugly, as the close was equivalent to the low of the day. The index has also struggled to mount a challenge on its (overhead) 20-day MA; an area of attack for shorts.  The February swing low is still available for bulls to try and mount a defense, but demand will need to pick up sharply if it's to succeed.  The Russell 2000 is also suffering from a significant flight of participants, noted by the sharp relative swing away from the index towards Tech and Large Caps, since the end of April.

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Sucker Punch Bears

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The only thing to disappoint bulls was the lack of volume, but the recovery from the Friday follow through was impressive. It still hasn't changed the larger picture, namely a 50:50 struggle between bears breaking the 200-day MA in the Russell 2000, and bulls looking for new all-time highs in the S&P/Dow Jones; the latter index in particular. The Russell 2000 is getting squeezed by the 20-day and 200-day MAs, which will break first? Shorts have been aggressive at the 20-day MA, bulls at the 200-day MA, who will win Tuesday?

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Dither in Dow

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A bright start to the day soon faded as the attempted breakout in the Dow stalled. Volume climbed to register distribution in the Dow, but the end-of-day point loss was relatively mild.  Monday offers a chance for a new breakout opportunity, but given Friday's reversal there may bearish follow through in morning trading. Look for a rebound from the 20-day MA.

Daily Market Commentary: Breakout Friday?

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It didn't happen. The Dow managed to keep itself pegged by resistance, but it didn't lose enough ground to suggest the breakout is no longer in play. It comes down to Friday, can it succeed?

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