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Showing posts from August, 2014

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors Gain

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Markets finished Friday on a flourish with a close at, or near new highs. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, which keeps thing ticking over in favor of bulls over the long weekend.  The Semiconductors had the best of it, although these gains were posted at the open.

Daily Market Commentary: Light Losses in Indices

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Charts are turning into a scatter plot of doji. Today's losses didn't violate support and trading volume was light. Little to worry about here. The Russell 2000 took the largest loss, but it's secure above its 50-day MA. The index is trading within a rising channel with a number of support levels, including the 50-day MA, to look too.

Daily Market Commentary: Little Change

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Whereas yesterday offered a spark of life from the Russell 2000, today offered little. The Russell 2000 gave back a little of the ground it made yesterday, but not enough to negate the gain.

Daily Market Commentary: Russell 2000 Gains

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There wasn't a whole lot of action in the indices today.  The only index to come out with anything was the Russell 2000. I thought we would have seen today's gain yesterday, but it was welcome all the same. Today's gain for the Russell 2000 also resulted in a return of the net bullish technical picture.

Daily Market Commentary: Bullish Rally Continues

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There was still a little doubt in today's action with the bulk of the gains coming on the morning gap. However, it did mean the brief pause from Friday was negated by today's push higher. The S&P made a challenge on 2,000, but it wasn't able to stick the move higher. Volume was lighter, reflecting a drop in buying interest, but with new highs for Large Caps and Tech indices it's hard to see past the bullish picture.

Daily Market Commentary: Pause in Rally

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Friday's action marked a balance between bulls and bears. Tech and Small Cap indices finished with indecisive doji, marking a swing trade opportunity; buy/sell break of Friday's high/low with a stop on the flip side. The S&P and Dow closed lower, but not enough to suggest bears finished the day in control. The losses in the S&P weren't enough to trigger a 'bull trap', so the long-side play is still favoured.  Selling volume was also down on Thursday's buying, another reason to suggest bulls have control.  Technicals remain net bullish.

Daily Market Commentary: S&P Breakout

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It was the only index with something to play for today, and that play was bullish. The S&P nicked a close above 1,992, which leaves it vulnerable to a 'bull trap' tomorrow. Other aspects, like technicals, are bullish, which keeps the long side favored in this market.

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductor Gains Accelerate

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It was more of the same from the Semiconductor index: a solid gain which took the index ever closer to 652 resistance. All of which is helping the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 maintain their push to all-time highs. Technicals for the Semiconductor Index are net bullish.  Weakness will offer itself as a buying opportunity, particularly at the breakout line and/or 50-day MA. Risk can be measured from the 38.2% fib retracement at $616.25.

Daily Market Commentary: Moving Averages Break

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A further acceleration in the rally took indices past key moving averages and into a space with limited overhead resistance. One of the indices hardest hit by the sell off was the semiconductor index. While it hasn't challenged July highs it did close above the neckline and 50-day MA. Technicals also finished today net bullish.

Daily Market Commentary: Nasdaq and Dow Breakout

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Well, half of what I suggested might happen, happened. The Nasdaq effectively limped a breakout, but the Dow had a far more enthused push higher. If there was a red flag for either of the breakouts it was the lack of volume, but given the extent of the moves there is room for some give back while maintaining the breakout. The Dow closed bang on its 50-day MA, which is another resistance level, but the breakout is of greater significance than resistance at its 50-day MA.

Daily Market Commentary: Tetchy Friday

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Ukrainian fears (mis-information) knocked Friday's morning rally before markets staged a recovery by the close. Sellers are likely to remain trigger happy but bulls have been willing to snap up these sell offs. Volume climbed to register distribution in non-Tech indices, but the August bounce from swing lows remain intact. The S&P closed between the 20-day and 50-day MAs, but with a bullish cross in stochastics and a new MACD trigger 'buy'.

Daily Market Commentary: Rally Continues

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Another day to leave excluded bulls wishing they had bought last week. Tomorrow will offer opportunities for bears to take advantage, but not all indices are in the same shape. The S&P is one such index which will find itself under the influence of bears on Friday. Today's rally took the index up to its 20-day MA, which just 'Death Crossed' below the 50-day MA. Near term momentum is with bulls, but if there is going to be a change then tomorrow is a good chance for shorts to show their hand.

Daily Market Commentary: Good Day For Bulls

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Today's buying offset the prior two days of indecision in the markets. The Nasdaq had perhaps the best of the action, rallying past the 20-day MA in a move towards 4,485. Technicals are on the verge of a net bullish switch with an upcoming MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume 'buy'.

Daily Market Commentary: Minor Losses

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The indecisive finish for the S&P and Nasdaq worked in bulls favor as it didn't bring a follow through to yesterday's selling. The Nasdaq held on to 50-day MA support. Swing traders could look to play a break of today's intraday range.

Daily Market Commentary: Disappointing Afternoon Fade

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Yesterday was a bit of reverse from my expectations. Had I seen a gap down with a 2-hour sell off, followed by a steady recovery to the (same) closing price, then I would have been much happier.  As it stands, there is a risk the selling could drift into today and keep buyers away until markets get closer to last Thursday's lows. Having said that, it does look like Thursday's lows will mark a strong support level. The profit taking which took markets down did knock breadth metrics down near, but not quite at, oversold levels. The Nasdaq 100 perhaps offers the most natural support as marked by the rising channel.  The 20-day MA is providing some supply, and if the index was to reverse and undercut the channel then this 20-day MA will become a shorting zone. The nearby presence of the 50-day MA complicates this a little as it has held as support (in conjunction with channel support).

Daily Market Commentary: Small Cap Channel Breakout

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Bulls will not doubt have danced a little jig of joy on Friday's close, but as Thursday's selling ultimately proved, the lack of volume will place a big asterisk next to it.  That's not to say there aren't areas of importance to watch. The Nasdaq has set up a defense line which will offer bulls a place for stops: a loss of 4,320 (on a close basis) would kill the nascent swing low in development. Stochastics haven't converged at oversold levels, so there may yet be a small bounce back to the 20-day MA before another push lower. Even so, buyers probably have more to gain from here forwards.

Daily Market Commentary: Tug of War Continues

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It has been a struggle between bulls and bears for the past week; each day alternating between buyers and sellers. Today belonged to sellers. Volume was lighter than yesterday, marking a lack of conviction on the part of sellers to drive the market lower. The index best positioned to bounce on Friday is the Dow. It finished the day very near the 200-day MA, offering a natural entry point for buyers. The Nasdaq was rebuffed at support-now-resistance and currently has a target of 4,245 and/or the 200-day MA.  Stops/Risk measured on a close above 4,380. The Russell 2000 was rebuffed from newly drawn channel resistance. Lower prices with a May low retest looks probable. Finally, the Nasdaq 100 is another index trading close to channel support and the 50-day MA. It's another good long candidate for Friday. For Friday, look for long opportunities in the Dow and Nasdaq 100. A weak open should look for short opportunities in the Russell 2000 while the downward channel

Daily Market Commentary: No Bearish Follow Through

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There is still a net decline in lead markets, but the crash-and-burn style headlines have yet to crack the resolve of bulls. The Nasdaq 100 found support at its 50-day MA, which itself is just above channel support. As the index is outperforming the others it's the one most attractive for bulls looking at the 'easy play'; stops on a close below channel support.

Daily Market Commentary: Buyers Not Ready Yet

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Monday's rally was brief and didn't trigger any follow through. Sellers pounced, hitting Large Caps hard, but leaving no index unscathed. Volume climbed to register distribution for the S&P, posting a new low for the July/August decline and came close to a potential new closing low. The 1,900 level is looking like the next stop down: watch for an intraday tag as this could be a good day trade on the bounce.

Daily Market Commentary: Sellers Continue to Press

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In previous sell offs, buyers have quickly come to the fore to buy-the-dip. They weren't so encouraged on Friday with buyers struggling to meet the supply created by sellers. Buyers still have a chance to strike with available support, although the amount of risk required to take such a position has widened. The indices closest to support, like the Nasdaq, finished with an opportunity at converged July swing lows and 50-day MA. A loss of the Friday low is the place for stops, although there is a good chance this low could be taken out on (probable) Monday (morning) weakness.

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