Showing posts from April, 2023

Nasdaq and S&P launch another attack at resistance as Russell 2000 struggles.

Bears were unable to press their advantage when the first challenge of resistance failed.  Instead, buyers mounted a fresh charge with the Nasdaq and S&P recording accumulation days.  For the last couple of months, when buyers have had control of the Nasdaq, they have done so on bullish accumulation, but when bears had the edge they haven't been able to control the story.  The Nasdaq returned a fresh 'buy' signal in On-Balance-Volume and ADX, and a return in bullish relative performance over the S&P.  With the index back at 12,225, we have yet another knock on the door of a breakout. Remember, triple tops are rare, and for bears to have the edge they will need a small miracle to drive this lower.  I would be looking for a breakout at minimum, bears may yet win out with a 'bull trap', but we cross that bridge when we come to it.

"Death Cross" in Russell 2000 as sellers strike markets

Where there was little to say about Monday's trading, there was much more to today's and yesterday's action.  For starters, we saw a significant loss and moving average undercut yesterday, and a continuation of the selling today.  Volume also rose in confirmed distribution. The Russell 2000 gave up two down gap days as it cleanly undercut what was 20-day MA support.  Adding to that was a "Death Cross" between 50-day and 200-day MAs - although in reality, we are looking more at a trading range.  Adding to the malaise were new 'sell' triggers in the MACD, On-Balance-Volume and ADX.

For today, read yesterday - no change in state of play.

Today's action in the indices offered an effective repeat of Friday's - as if the weekend never happened.  Not much more to add on this. Action still looks favorable for breakouts in the Nasdaq...

Neutral finish to week; indices ready to rally.

There was the risk Friday was going to see markets drift away from their generally bullish setups. Instead, indices closed the day with small bullish 'hammers' or neutral doji, that gives bulls an opportunity to mount a period of buying.  The  Russell 2000 successfully defended its 20-day MA despite remaining pegged by 200-day MA resistance.  Technicals are a mix of bullish MACD, On-Balance-Volume and ADX, with bearish intermediate sotchastics and underperformance against the Nasdaq.

Minor losses keep things close to resistance

There wasn't much room for markets to gain without driving breakouts, so instead, indices drifted lower without really causing too much damage. The Nasdaq retained 20-day MA support on lighter volume selling.  While losses were light there was enough selling to generate a 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume.

Bearish candlesticks on tags of indices resistance

Today's action finished with low level losses.  Candlesticks were bearish, but this wasn't surprising given the tags on resistance.  Overall, I'm still bullish on markets, but it may take a little longer before we see resistance breakouts. The Nasdaq started the day just below 12,250 resistance as it remains inside its mini-handle.  On-Balance-Volume remains on a 'sell' trigger and the index is still underperforming the S&P, but other technicals are positive.  I would be looking for a breakout over the coming days.

A tale of two cities; Nasdaq leads, but Russell 2000 in trouble.

Two very different things going on in the market at the moment. We have a Nasdaq that continues to prepare for a breakout.  This time forming a mini-handle just below resistance. Aside from On-Balance-Volume, we have bullish technicals - although I would like to see a relative outperformance against the S&P, which is not the case at the moment. 

Nasdaq primed for breakout

Markets experienced modest losses, but there is still underlying strength in the market.  The Nasdaq is primed to break to a new swing high, helped by the relatively light volume associated with today's selling as it knocks on the door for a close above 12,200. Technicals remain net bullish, although the index did lose some relative performance against the S&P.  However, Rate Of Change is the highest it has been for months, another indication of bullish strength and the likelihood of a breakout in the coming days.

Buyers deliver confirmed accumulation in indices.

Friday was a great day for longs with all indices recording gains on higher volume accumulation. The Nasdaq is outperforming both the S&P and Russell 2000 and with smell of recession in the air this index is performing remarkably well.  Technicals are net bullish.  I want to find something bad to say about the index, but at this point in time. there is little negative to say. 


Show more