Posts

Showing posts from June, 2024

Modest gains for S&P and Nasdaq as follow through selling fails to emerge

Image
Index rallies have so far remained remarkably robust even when a move down looks the easiest path. The Nasdaq and S&P experienced selling into Monday and posted two small days worth of gains, albeit on lighter volume. However, the setup continues to look bullish for both indices. Technicals for the S&P are net bullish, but the Nasdaq generated a new 'sell' trigger, although the latter is still outperforming relative to peer indices.

Bullish Hammer in Russell 2000 offers opportunity

Image
Options expiration clouded the volume action, but there was some positivity from the indices. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) closed with a bullish 'hammer', but as with bearish candlesticks within the current trading range, Friday's bullish one comes with the same caveats about its potential to mark a reversal. The candlestick appeared below 20-day and 50-day MAs, so this adds to the challenge. And the index is sharply underperforming against peer indices.

Sellers strike, nixing extended rallies in the S&P and Nasdaq

Image
It was to be expected that sellers were to make a concerted appearance at some point in June and today was the day. It was a rough day for me on the day trading front; overtrading, but managing to close with a profit thanks to the gain the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The S&P and Nasdaq took the biggest hits on the day, but there is plenty of support to work with despite today's higher volume distribution selling.

Bullish Engulfing Pattern for Russell 2000 ($IWM) as S&P and Nasdaq Post New Highs

Image
A strong day for markets stretched as far as the beleagured Russell 2000 ($WIM). The Small Caps index enjoyed a bullish engulfing pattern on the bullish mid-line of stochastics. It should be noted, the mid-line of stochastics [39,1] is the "oversold" state for a bullish market and today's action matched this thesis (for a bull market reversal). Supporting technicals like the ADX, On-Balance-Volume and MACD are still bearish, but I suspect this won't remain the case for long. The S&P was clearer in its intentions. Increased volume buying to new highs on positive net technicals leaves little to the imagination. Only its relative underperformance to the Nasdaq is the "concern" - but not really... The Nasdaq ticked all the boxes, with just one exception, it didn't manage to post its gain on higher volume accumulation. It does have the relative performance advantage over its peers, which will help. Nasdaq breadth metrics don't poi

Large divergence between Russell 2000 ($IWM), and the S&P and Nasdaq

Image
The Nasdaq and S&P are doing all the leg work, closing near highs, while the Russell 2000 ($IWM) has taken hit after hit as it slips deeper inside its trading range. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) is holding the bullish mid-line of stochastics, which is perhaps the best that can be said about it. Other technicals are bearish, including an upcoming bearish cross of the trigger lines below the zero line. Volume also climbed to register as distribution. But despite this, an index trading inside a range can make many such moves without impacting on the larger picture; what we want is either a challenge of the March 'bull trap' or a positive test of the 200-day MA. It would take a decisive loss of the 200-day MA to suggest a larger bearish turn was in the making.

Russell 2000 ($IWM) rushes out of the gates at its own expense

Image
There was a bit of a mixed bag from markets since my last update. The Russell 2000 ($IWM) burst out of the bag on Monday's bullish setup but most of the action was premarket, and by the time the market opened it was in decline. This continued into Thursday with the resulting closure of the breakout gap. However, because all of this occurred inside the trading range, its significance - and the potential for a bullish bounce tomorrow - is reduced.

Nasdaq and S&P at new highs

Image
It was a good day for indices as both the Nasdaq and S&P managed to finish at new highs. Gains in the Nasdaq were enough to reverse the 'sell' trigger in On-Balance-Volume, returning the index to a net bullish technical picture.

Markets to see a slow start the week following Friday's indecision

Image
Markets closed the week on a bit of a conundrum. The trend for the S&P and Nasdaq has been solidly bullish since the lows of 2022, but people (myself included) are still looking for the negatives; markets "climbing the wall of worry." Friday's closed expressed that indecision with the doji finish at highs for the Nasdaq and S&P. There was aslo a doji/spinning top candlestick in the Russell 2000 ($IWM), but as that occurred well inside its trading range it carries less significance. The S&P has run into a little psychological resistance around 5,350, but the selling volume that accompanied Friday's doji was light and probably had more to say about apathy, that any real concern on the part of bulls. Technicals still hold to a net bullish picture, the MACD trigger 'buy' the most recent signal moving in buyers favor. The only oddity is the sharp relative underperformance to the Nasdaq, that again, should be viewed as bullish in the larger context of

S&P and Nasdaq surge as Russell 2000 remains range bound

Image
I'm giving day trading a go and with hindsight, today should have been an "easy" profit day, but the volatility swing on today's economic data threw me off and I missed the big gains in the S&P and Nasdaq; registering a loss for the day. However, as an investor, today was great news. I would like to see more from the Russell 2000 ($IWM), but the Nasdaq made up for it. There wasn't a whole lot of volume to go with the buying, but if today's moves can stick then this shouldn't matter. The Nasdaq is doing all the heavy lifting, and for now, the surge in relative performance should attract fresh money. Technicals are net bullish with new 'buy' signals in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume and a +DI/-DI bullish switch.

Big Bearish Engulfing Pattern in Russell 2000 ($IWM)

Image
Tricky times for markets as today's trading marked a bearish push back to Friday's late day recovery. In the Russell 2000 ($IWM), a significant gap higher was quickly undone by through-the-day selling. Technicals for the index are mixed; On-Balance-Volume and +DI/-DI are on recent 'buy' signals with stochastics above the bullish mid-line. However, the index is underperforming relative to the Nasdaq, and is on a weak MACD 'sell' trigger (weak, because the signal occurred above the bullish zero line). Weakness in the Russell 2000 is worrisome because of its role in trend leadership.

Archive

Show more