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Showing posts from March, 2013

Daily Market Commentary: First Day of Accumulation In Two Weeks

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It has taken a while, but bulls were finally able to turn up the pressure enough to see a higher close, on higher volume accumulation.  The S&P posted a new all-time high in the process. There was also a confirmed relative swing from Small Caps to Large Cap stocks.

Daily Market Commentary: Buyers Post Late Day Gains

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While today wasn't a follow through on yesterday's buying, it did count as a bullish day.  Afternoon buying undid the morning sell off, breaking the alternative buy/sell sequence which has been in play for the past couple of weeks. Volume dropped off, which undermines the bullish picture a little, although it also means there isn't a scrum of sellers looking to get out. The S&P is pressuring 1,564 resistance.  Doing so would effectively confirm a new MACD trigger 'buy' and confirm the relative strength switch from Small Caps to Large Caps.

Daily Market Commentary: S&P Attempting to Break

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Large Caps are stealing attention from more speculative Small Caps and Technology Indices.  The declining relative trend between the S&P and Russell 2000, which has been in play since November, is swinging back in favour of the S&P. The S&P has also managed a new closing high.

Daily Market Commentary: Consolidation

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Markets are engaged in much back-and-forth which isn't giving either side an advantage. There is expanding technical weakness, which may influence the ultimate direction of the market when the consolidation comes to an end. The S&P is on the verge of an On-Balance-Volume 'sell' trigger, but is holding above its 20-day MA.

Daily Market Commentary: Scrappy Action

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Yesterday's small gain was erased with another round of selling, which slightly edged into distribution (in that it was heavier than yesterday's buying, but not really heavy overall). There was no follow through to Wednesday's buying, which was disappointing given the broader strength of the rally. It left the S&P with a MACD trigger 'sell', and the index just above its 20-day MA. Given bulls failed today, the advantage is handed to bears.  If bears are to play their advantage then there should be a test of the 20-day MA tomorrow.

Daily Market Commentary: Small Gain

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After a couple days worth of selling, bulls made a brief reappearance on day. Volume was down on yesterdays, suggesting little enthusiasm to this rally from bulls. It does mean the indices are again close to resistance, which means the chance for further substantial gains is diminished. The S&P still looks to be on course for a MACD trigger and On-Balance-Volume 'sell'. So today's gain looks like nothing more than a stay-on-execution by bears.

Daily Market Commentary: Sellers Push Markets Away from Resistance

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Sellers have taken a shine on the markets since my last update, managing something more than just a couple of points of downside.  Volume climbed to register a distribution day, following from some heavy volume trading on Friday. The S&P eased back off channel resistance, finding temporary relief at the 20-day MA. Technicals haven't rolled to 'sell' triggers yet, marking the resilience of the rally, but also the sustainability in the rate of gain (not too fast, not too slow). A 10% pullback from the last swing high would place the S&P close to its 200-day MA, offering a good pullback buying opportunity.

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Lead Out

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Small Caps drove today's gains, despite the overbought nature of the market. Small Caps extended their relative strength advantage over the other indices. Strength in this index should help lead out the other indices.

Daily Market Commentary: Healthy Action

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Today was just an extension of yesterday's subtle action. The indices barely moved and volume was very light. The two 'big' movers were the Russell 2000 and the Semiconductor Index. The Russell 2000 inched a new closing high. A reflection of its leadership role, even if the Dow Jones holds the headlines. Bulls should be pleased, this is a far more important index for maintaining a rally than the Dow Jones.

Daily Market Commentary: Low Volume Action

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Markets took their first step towards consolidating the recent gains. The losses were light and the volume even lighter, but there was little else to add on the day. The S&P remained pegged to resistance despite the narrow loss.

Daily Market Commentary: Seventh Day of Gains In A Row

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The market added yet another accumulation day as part of seven straight day of gains.  The Russell 2000 maintained its relative leadership roll, despite the smallest of gains today. With Small Caps leading, the potential for this rally to continue remains high.

Stock Picks: $THC, $NTES, $ISIS, $EQT, $CNP, and $DUK

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The following stocks were featured last week as potential long-side trades: Tenet Healthcare Corp, NetEase.com and ISIS Pharmaceuticals , Equitable Resources, Centerpoint Energy, and Duke Energy Corporation .

Weekly Market Commentary: Nasdaq Breakout

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All indices are in breakout mode. The Nasdaq finally cracked 3,200 resistance which had kept it pegged back. The Russell 2000 and S&P also started to add new legs to their breakouts. However, the bounce in breadth hasn't reversed the bearish divergence, which suggests an end-phase run. New support for the Nasdaq breakout is 3,100.

Daily Market Commentary: Modest Gains

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Today's small gain offset yesterday's modest loss. Volume eased as traders tired of the push to new highs. Supporting technicals erased the remnants of their bearish turn, but it won't take much to send them back. The Russell 2000 rallied to put itself up against resistance. If bears are to make a return, tomorrow would offer a good opportunity to launch an attack.

Daily Market Commentary: New Highs But Not In Breadth

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The indices grabbed the headlines , but it may be a short lived given new market highs have not been supported by breadth metrics. The Nasdaq gapped higher and was supported with a MACD trigger 'buy'. If this is a true breakout, then the gap can't close; infractions into the space suggest weakness and will run the risk of a rapid move back to its 200-day MA (effectively, a false breakout) to the extent it would be a more attractive short play than a pullback buy. Until then, caution advised for bulls.

Daily Market Commentary: Bounce Continues

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Markets posted a follow through gain to Friday's morning recovery, although volume was down.  While the market is doing a good impression of a bounce, it continues to experience expanding breadth weakness.  However, in a positive, 20-day MAs were regained as support. The S&P is just 5 points from a new closing high and tomorrow may be the day it completes the pullback.  The S&P is the lead index of the Russell 2000 and Nasdaq threesome.  If  a new high is posted it should come with a MACD trigger 'buy'.

Stock Pick: Estee Lauder $EL

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This week's fashionable tip is Estee Lauder.  The fundamental view can be read here . This stock is on the verge of a break of $64.50.  Although the stock is contained by resistance, it does have the benefit of a MACD trigger 'buy', along with a leading breakout in On-Balance-Volume.

Weekly Market Commentary: Another Week of Breadth Declines

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Markets staged a respectable recovery after Monday's sizable losses. However, the indices weren't able to stage as great a recovery in breadth as was achieved for underlying price. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks Above the 50-day MA made it back to 60% after starting the week at 55%.  However, it is well off the 80% high posted a few weeks ago.

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