Showing posts from August, 2013

Daily Market Commentary: Mixed Action - Weakness in Large Caps but Strength in Small Caps

The day was set up for a follow through bounce, and for Small Caps and Tech this was the case, but for the S&P and Dow early afternoon gains weren't sustainable and sellers again returned to push markets back.  Volume was light, which is more bad news for Large Caps, as buyers were too shy to make an appearance.

Daily Market Commentary: Weak Recovery

I was hoping for a little more but it was a lackluster (and low volume) recovery for the various indices. The Dow Jones was best positioned to benefit, but even it struggled to hold intraday gains.

Daily Market Commentary: Bears Pressure For a Second Day

Bears continued where they left off from Monday with a solid day of selling. Volume climbed to register a distribution day. The extent of the selling, taking out August swing lows, sets up for measured move targets down.  For the S&P, the downside target is the April breakout level just below 1,600.

Daily Market Commentary: Late Sell Off

A disturbing late day sell off killed the attempt by bulls to regain key moving averages. Volume was light, which was of some consolation, but the rate of decline pointed to some big selling.  Potential Syrian intervention was attributed as the cause of the selling, but markets still have some room to fall before becoming measurably oversold. The S&P will be looking at a test of 1,639, but tomorrow will offer another chance for bulls to regain the 50-day MA. Stochastics did regain bullish territory despite today's sell off.

Motley Fool: Blog Network Statistics

With the Motley Fool Network leaving beta and going mainstream, now is a good time to review the progress and contributions individual writers have made.  The program has been running for the best part of 18 months - if not longer - and at least 33 contributors have been offered full time positions at Fool HQ. At least one contributor, Brandy Betz , has come full circle, returning to blogging after working a stint at the company. My last review of the program was in  November .  At the time, 169 contributors had received Editor Choice Awards. With the program leaving beta and Editor Choice Awards no longer up for grabs, the number of contributors receiving the award has topped at 282. Not every contributor who wins an Editor Choice Award sticks with the writing. By my estimates, 152 of the 282 Editor Choice Award winners are still actively contributing (54%). Of those who were contributing in June 2012 (my first check) about 29% (23 of the 78) are still actively writing. But of the

Daily Market Commentary: Small Caps Rally Strongly

It was a solid day for bulls as Small Caps took the day's plaudits.  The Russell 2000 was able to mount a defense of its 50-day MA, firming the swing low at 1,013. The 20-day MA is overhead to offer resistance, although momentum is with bulls and some follow through is likely. Action in the Nasdaq is likely to help, with a break of the 20-day MA in the latter index probably to occur tomorrow.

Daily Market Commentary: Further Losses

There was to be no recovery of the 50-day MA.  The S&P marked an intraday high which was equivalent of the 50-day MA, but that was as far as it got. The eventual lower close was accompanied with a net bearish turn in technicals. The only thing going in its favour is the growing relative strength towards Large Caps and away from Small Caps (despite the recent reversal).

Daily Market Commentary: S&P Failure at 50-day MA but Russell 2000 Defends 50-day MA

The S&P managed to mount a challenge of its 50-day MA, but couldn't retain gains by market close. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day, although the failure to regain the 50-day MA is dominantly bearish.

Daily Market Commentary: 50-day MAs Break

There was no doubt which side had control of the market by the close of business. The biggest losses were seen in the S&P and Russell 2000. The S&P managed a brief rebound off the 50-day MA, but it was quickly overcome from sellers. Despite the losses, the relative shift in favour of Large Caps over Small Caps continued.

Weekly Market Commentary: Bears Keep Up The Pressure

It has been a while since bulls haven't been able to mount a counter attack to a big one day loss as was experienced on Thursday. Some indices are significantly worse off than others, but bulls do have some defensive opportunities to play on Monday. The S&P finished the week at its 50-day MA. Technicals are growing increasingly bearish, but are a long way from oversold, so the next bounce will likely be short and probably find resistance at the 20-day MA.

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors Gains Undone

Well - that was brief.  What looked to be a decent swing low for the Semiconductor Index was undone with today's opening gap down. Luckily, losses didn't build beyond the opening gap down and the index was able to finish on channel support. However, in the process it again lost 50-day MA support. It's an aggressive long, but another gap down would break support and set a bearish tone for the day (although watch for a late day surge to take it back to the channel line).

Daily Market Commentary: Semiconductors Gain Traction

A solid if somewhat low key day. Indices look to be building a swing low with a decent pick up in volume to register an accumulation day.  Best of the days action was in the semiconductor index as it confirms channel support. The semiconductor index also saw a close above the 50-day MA with the 20-day MA in sights for Wednesday. Technicals have a bearish bias, but the bullish price trend trumps this negativity. This is also good news for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100, which should see some follow through upside.

Daily Market Commentary: Low Volume Losses for S&P

Monday was a low key affair. Minor losses and low volume in the S&P offered little to either side. The Nasdaq added a few points, but not enough to change the larger picture. It still trades inside the rising channel, but there wasn't enough from bulls to challenge channel resistance.

Weekly Market Commentary: Indices Stubborn With Breadth 'Sell'

Bears have not turned up despite Breadth 'sell' triggers.  Indices continue to hog upper channel lines when profit taking is perhaps the easier option. The Nasdaq Summation Index, Bullish Percents, Percentage of Stocks Above the 50-day MA, and Percentage of Stocks Above the 200-day MA are all on 'sell' triggers.

Daily Market Commentary: 20-day MAs Hold

Yesterday saw 20-day MA of the S&P challenged for the first time since June. Today registered as a defense of this moving average. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average wasn't so lucky:

Daily Market Commentary: 'Bull Traps'

Today's losses set in motion potential 'Bull Traps' for the indices. The S&P and Nasdaq were dropped back inside their rising channels, although the Nasdaq 100 remains above its resistance breakout. The S&P also finished with a MACD trigger 'sell' (which also exhibits a bearish divergence to compound the negativity). Aggressive shorts can play for a push to the 20-day MA with likely follow through to the 50-day MA. Stops for a push to the 50-day MA can be placed above 1,709; i.e. above the 'bull trap' high.

Daily Market Commentary: Weakening Breadth as Indices Ride Channels

Markets have added a couple more notches since my last update, although sector breadth has weakened with the exception of Materials and Industrials. However, indices are running inside (or just above) their upper - but slower rising - channel bands.  The Nasdaq 100 is offering the most bullish picture and is the index to play for pullbacks; stops go on a break of the rising channel line (= "bull trap").


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