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Showing posts from April, 2009

Stock Market Commentary: Black Candlesticks Spell Trouble

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The Nasdaq tagged its 200-day MA after the morning gap faded into the close. The higher volume reflects churning as profit takers hand over to weak holders. The Nasdaq 100 also flashed a black candlestick but held above its 200-day MA - but it is questionable how long it can continue to hold this moving average. Large and Small Caps were relatively uneventful. Ironically, the semiconductor index pushed through its 200-day MA without the signs of weakness developing in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Typically the SOX leads but in this instance I think it will succumb to the developing downwind in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Market Sentiment: Breadth Ascent Slowing

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The old boundaries of the bear market may be broken but breadth is struggling to maintain recent form. The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA has entered the 80th percentile, although it had plumbed to the depths of the 5th percentile at the worst of the market crisis. It can go higher but corrections in the indicator tend to be sharp and it's primed for a fall. The more sedate Summation Index is also slowing. At 413 it is only 90 points or so shy of bull market top territory but it's the narrowing of the indicator to its 5-day EMA that is most of concern. The breadth indicator which is in a position to maintain its run is the Bullish Percents. At 55% it has only passed bear market top territory but could run another 15% before it approached bull market levels. But none of the above can hide the real momentum behind the rally as displayed by the Percentage of Stocks above their 200-day MA. Bulls can take real confidence from the strength shown by market particip

Stock Market Commentary: Dow Breaks Resistance

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After a few days of lingering just below declining resistance the Dow was able to push above and make a new 2-month closing high. Volume was very light which weakened the significance at what should have been a strong buying day. The lingering underperformance of the Nasdaq 100 with its tag and retreat at the 200-day MA is another poin of concern. The inverse bullish hammer cames at a time there of sharp drop in relative strength compared to the bull-market-leading Russell 2000 index. Luckily, the sharp underperformance of the Nasdaq 100 to the Russell 2000 was because the Russell 2000 had a very good day. There is still a chance it will make it to the 200-day MA before the rally stalls; the earlier bull trap from April 20th was negated. I would be bearish on the Nasdaq 100 at this point but still net bullish on the Russell 2000 and Dow. Conflicting times! Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio

$CSCO: Cracks through 200-day MA.

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This is one of many examples of stocks breaking through significant downtrends. CSCO enjoyed a lengthy accumulation phase from the time of US elections to the present 'handle' for the month of April. The push past the 200-day MA is an indication of confidence on the part of bulls and lends credence to dip-buying at either 20-day or 50-day MAs. I have entered a Zignals YourCall for a push to $24s with a stop on a loss of the recent $17.15 reaction low . Analyst and Commentator Calls list their target price with a Zignals applied Stop to balance the 'equation' (some Commentators provide their own stop prices) CSCO is only one example, there are plenty more out there. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Second Day of Light Declines

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Traders played a repeat of yesterday with pre-market weakness reversing over the course of the trading day before sellers return into the close. The Dow remained pegged by resistance. The Nasdaq 100 has yet to tag its 200-day MA but it's perhaps only a day away. Small caps flashed a MACD trigger 'sell'. One thing all this tight trading does is set up a situation for a volatile response - either up or down (i.e. trade range break). Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Modest Losses on Light Volume

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Given the potential swine flu had to spook the market (as an excuse to sell) the indices performed remarkably well. Indices did close down but did so on light volume. Recent buyers seems reluctant to sell and the proximity of nearby 200-day MAs may keep bulls holding on a little longer. Up to the end of March it had looked like the Nasdaq (and other indices) were to fall back sharply from overbought conditions but what subsequently happened was a gradual slowing of the ascent as technicals held firm. A gradual decline back to the 50-day MAs looks reasonable here, or a sideways range until the 50-day MA rises to price. I have redrawn resistance in the Dow and the 50-day MA is close enough to lend support for a possible breakout. If it got past 8,500 it could find some momentum but it looks a bit lost at the moment. Combined resistance at 1,383 and the 200-day MA has kept the lid on the strongly performing Nasdaq 100. Although the sharp ascent will eventually run out of steam the longer

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

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Swine-flu will set the tone for today, isolating Friday's surge higher. How many bulls will be trapped by the weekend's events? Market is ripe for a top - will this be the event to mark it? Yong Pan had a couple more bear signals to add but now there is considerably less green to help the market. Short term SPY's managed a weak buy (not oversold enough) Bearish wedge backtest confirmation on Friday? Plenty of gaps to fill on the way down. Tomas Leszczynski has a target price for the SPX at 785-790 (measured move down from channel - so this will change weekly). Or will it be a head-and-shoulder pattern? Right-hand-shoulder c 740. Seen better on the weekly chart (although I would slant the neckline down which would mean a second shoulder closer to March lows) Anthony Caldaro views the current rally from March lows as an 'A' of an ABC. I'm still confused by some of the within labelling but if it plays out it means the next move down will be followed by a decent

Weekly Stock Commentary: Breadth Bear Market is History

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The indices may not have reached a bottom but the bear market in market breadth kicked off at the end of 2006 looks to have completed. The downtrends in the Bullish Percents, Percentage of Stocks above key Moving Averages and the Summation Indices (in particular) have all been breached. The Percentage of Nasdaq stocks above the 50-day MA closed at a new 5-year high. However, from an index perspective all key averages have only just cleared oversold conditions and could rally for a number of weeks from here. Small cap action is always important for new bull markets; 517 resistance is next. Now it's just a matter of the indices complying. A respectable pullback is needed to relieve overbought conditions. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Latest KIVA loans

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I still have two more loans to make from recent Scratchback purchases of Big Moving Stock and Penny Stock Picks , but I had $200 to reloan from past subscription payments. With the support of blog readers a total of 105 projects have been funded by Fallond Stock Picks. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Bulls Hold Out; Watch Semiconductors

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It seems much of the work bulls are doing to keep this market moving higher is going to go down to what the Semiconductor Index does at the 200-day MA. The SOX has been stubborn in maintaining 236 support and is now running close enough to its 200-day MA for it to push through. A move past the 200-day MA will help the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 get to, and break their 200-day MAs. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Hot on Stocktwits: AAPL and SPY

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AAPL is one on nearly everybodies watchlist for today. September's gap has closed on yesterday's high which makes above the high an interesting stop placement for a short. I've made a YourCall for a move down to $90.75 / Stop at $125.51 . The SPY has enjoyrd a nice reversal of the October-March decline. While it may not have the legs to make it to $105.53 on its current run it may be able to mount something more substantial as it works off overbought conditions. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: Bearish Inverse Hammer

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Morning bullish enthusiasm gave way to a bearish surge into the close (and through to afterhours); the day closing with a bearish inverse hammer - the significance of which is increased at overbought market conditions. Frustrating to have seen my short stopped out by a couple of points. Will wait and see how AAPL and EBAY earnings influence tech markets in the morning but I will be looking to go short again. A break of 1,300 in the Nasdaq 100 could see a rapid deterioration. The last two days of gains weren't enough to reverse the trend breakdown or post a new closing high and today looked like short covering followed by new short positions. AAPL and EBAY earnings are likely to trap a lot of bulls based on their post-earnings euphoria on Stocktwits.com . Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Gold Prices: Support at 200-day MA

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If there is a case for Gold now could be the time. The 200-day was recently tested twice and held. Since the February top the commodity has traded within a loose bullish wedge. There is a bullish divergence in the MACD histogram with a pending bull cross of the zero line in the offing (a break above the 20-day MA would set this off). Other technicals are oversold (stochastics) or improving (CCI). With a stop below $859 and a projected target around $1,100 the risk:reward is respectable. Downsides are the downtick in the 50-day MA with a confirmed downtrend in the 20-day MA. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Stock Market Commentary: MACD 'sells' but 20-day MAs hold

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Tech recovered a large portion of yesterday's losses but the break of rising support remained. There was a further weakness in technicals with a MACD trigger 'sell' in the Nasdaq 100. Large caps were little changed as the Dow flashed a MACD 'sell' of its own. But 20-day MAs were the real story as all held as support. What will tomorrow bring? Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available too.

Market Sentiment: Breadth Weakens But Not Broken

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Not surprisingly there was a negative shift in market breadth but it will take more than a day of selling for them to truly reverse course (although the likelihood is very high given their overbought status). Most sensitive was the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA which gave a clear 'sell' in the indicator and in supporting technicals - MACD in particular. The Summation Index could move into the 500s before topping out - unlikely, but needs to be considered. Bullish Percents wobbled but are the least overbought given the aforementioned have breached what had been bear market resistance up to now and the Bullish Percents have only just got there. Given further weakness is likely, the next question is where will breadth support kick in and at what point will the Nasdaq be when it does? Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portfolio manager and strategy builder website. Forex data available

Stock Market Commentary: Pent Up Selling

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After two weeks of heavily overbought conditions sellers finally got their way. Volume was huge for indices (other than the Dow) and the watch points for bulls are the respective 20-day MAs. The Nasdaq will test its 20-day MA tomorrow. As will the Nasdaq 100. Also important for this index will be the ability to hold 1,286 support Added to the malaise was the break of the 20-day MA in the SOX. Given this has gone it is almost certain the same will happen for the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100. Technicals have also taken the largest hit of the indices here. Most worrying for bulls was the huge hit the Russell 2000 took. Note new bull trap. After all the will they/won't they, bears have made their presence felt. While the 20-day MAs look very vulnerable I would not write off the 50-day MAs just yet. Buyers are unlikely to bite until stochastics at least get oversold. Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, stock charts, watchlist, multi-currency portf

Weekly Stock Charts review from Stockcharts.com Publishers

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After a week's break the weekly review is back. Markets barely took a break of their own as the rally since March reached new highs. When will resistance kick in? Yong Pan of Cobrasmarketview has a mix of mostly neutral, bear and a couple of bull signals in the short term; still in the balance but it would be hard to be a buyer at these levels. Although breadth is overbought the VIX is still in neutral territory. Clean looking bearish wedge on the SPY . But dailies will always be influenced by a solid bullish weekly picture Tomas Leszczynski of Santoren.com has a downside target on the SPY 60-min c765 and rising. First bottom bounce in place - odds of a retest looks high Minimal accumulation on the SPY 10-min Richard Lehman as current ascents at channel mid-points with no loss of support. 4/18 -- The short term trend channels continue as persistently as any I've seen in a long time. Everyone seems to know the market is overbought, but the need by money managers and instit

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