Showing posts from June, 2023

S&P and Nasdaq rally in their bases.

Currently on vacation, so posting intermittently until after July 4th. Suffice it to say, the S&P and Nasdaq are well on their way to shaping the right-hand side of bases coming off 2021 highs.  There is still a chance these bases can fail, but until I next post, I expect these rallies to continue on weekly timeframes.

Russell 2000, S&P and Nasdaq all kick on

It would have been nice to see some volume to go with today's buying, but we don't always get what we want. The Russell 2000 pushed into the early year consolidation, breaking well away from the spring/early summer consolidation that had threatened something alot worse. Technicals for the index are net positive and after a long period of relative underpeformance to the S&P and Nasdaq, it's now the lead index.

Russell 2000 continues to surge

After weeks of listless action, the Russell 2000 ($IWM) has suddenly come to life. A second day of strong buying, ranked as accumulation, has offered volume comparable to the selling in March (but now as buying).  Relative performance hasn't fully moved in the Russell 2000s favor, but it's only a day away from outperforming both the strongly performing Nasdaq, and the S&P.  Once it gets to $187s it will start to run into congestion/resistance from the start of the year. 

Russell 2000 breaks free of congestion

It was a good day for markets, but it was the Russell 2000 that went on a bender, pushing itself out of its scrappy, multi-week base and slicing through its 200-day MA. Not only that, it managed to clear $180 resistance, which means it's now in the process of shaping a right-hand-side base.  This is important development as other indices are challenging resistance on weekly timeframes.  There is room for the Russell 2000 to test support, and an intraday spike below $180 would be acceptable, as long as the index ends the day above $180. 

S&P "Bull Trap" negated as sellers lose momentum

It's not exactly text book, but whenever bears are able to punish markets they are quickly undone, often by a single day of strong buying.  The S&P is an ideal case in point. After trading below 4,165 for a number of weeks it has managed a confidence restoring push above 4,200. Each rise in price will squeeze shorts to help drive the index above its 2023 scrappy action.  Ultimately, we will want to see a move comparable to what's occurring in the Nasdaq.


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