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Showing posts from August, 2006

Trade Ideas: GXP

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No great moves in the markets as the long weekend approaches. My Trade Ideas scan was a little slower in picking 8 candidates, requiring 2 minutes of time. Utilities are a tour-de-force in a weak market and today's most active Trade Ideas scan pick belonged to an Electric Utilities firm, Great Plains Energy ( GXP ). GXP is in the process of consolidating gains from $27 to $30. The stock has generated a small handle, facilitating the placement of stops at the loss of near term support ( $29.78 ). This handle forms part of a 12-month base, generating a measured move target of $36 . The point-n-figure chart shows no price pattern, but has a reduced target of $31.50. The 5.50% yield is a nice pay-day, especially if the company can maintain this yield as prices climb. Great Plains Energy Incorporated, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity in the United States. The company also provides retail electricity supply servic

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : August 23rd

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The Trade Ideas scan returned to form; the 8 picks outperformed Jim Cramer's and the market ETFs. The average return of +1.18% for the Trade Ideas picks, was complemented by the relatively low standard error across the returns ( +/- 0.57% ). The variability across Jim Cramer's picks was 3 times greater than the Trade Ideas picks - and all that for a net flat return ( +0.18% ). The Market ETF's fell in between with a +0.65% average return per week. The best pick was Jim Cramer's LLL , it closed up +4.28% . Unfortunately, the worst performing stock was also Jim's, VLO ( -7.23% ). If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or M

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : August 22nd

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There were no newsletter picks from me last week, so the Tuesday-on-Tuesday comparison only includes the picks from my Trade Ideas scan, Jim Cramer and the market ETFs. Although it was a quiet week, the market ETFs were able to close the strongest. The ETFs finished the week up +0.68% . The Trade Ideas scan picks was effectively flat on the week ( +0.10% ), with Jim Cramer's first 8 lightning round picks down slightly ( -0.43% ). The best pick was Trade Ideas, SJM ; it closed up +5.26% . The weakest stock came from Jim Cramer's picks, it closed down -4.27% . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap . SPONSORED BY:-

Trade Ideas: TLK

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My Trade Ideas Base scan was popping out picks at a reasonable clip; to generate 8 picks required less than a minute of the software's time. One of the most frequent to appear over the course of the day was PTTelekom Indonesia ( TLK ); the stock appeared 23 times . The stock has formed a nice handle of support around $34 (with resistance at $36) after a scrappy bottom in May-July. There would be some concern with the lack of volume in its most recent ascent, so potential buyers may wish to wait for some heavier volume before entering. Stops can be placed on a break of the rising trend line highlighted in pink. The point-n-figure chart holds to a Triple Top Breakout from July 28th, and has a price target of $51. Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk. provides fixed line telecommunications services in Indonesia. It provides fixed telecommunication services, which consist of fixed wireline and fixed wireless; cellular; interconnection; network; data and Inter

Fat Pitch Lesson

Fat Pitch Financials published an excellent summary of his Parlux Frgrances ( PARL ) trade, detailing the ups and downs when you ignore all the rules. He summarized his lesson in a bullet point format, but his first point is perhaps the most valuable (emphasis his). + Always google the CEO , even for short-term investments in special situations. (I thought I had already learned this one.) + Never swim with the sharks or you’ll end up as shark bait. When short-sellers outnumber everyone else, run for safety. + When the reason you purchased something is no longer valid SELL . (I have discovered I really have a problem with my serious bias against selling my losers. I definitely need more practice with this one.) + Listen to the warnings of trusted and seasoned financial writers. These are few and far in between but valuable. Fat Pitch PARL

Trade Ideas Odds Maker

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I have been playing with Odds Maker, the latest addition to Trade Ideas Pro software. The feature allows for a quick performance review of your scan. It is also easy to alter the parameters to suit your timeframe of trading, your profit targets, or if you use a stop. To give an idea as to how it looks, the following is an output for "Stocks Up 5 Days in a row and Continuing higher" (for August 28th). The OddsMaker is a message bar along the bottom of the output table. The output illustrated below used the default settings, showing the returns for a 30-minute period. But this time period can be changed, or analyzed using the closing/next open price. The one thing I am not clear on is how the "Net Winnings" is calculated (maybe David can reply to this?). Although I am not a daytrader, I tried to see how an intraday scan could be developed using the Odds Maker. I started with a clean slate, but one could jump in with one of the many settings available. I set the Mini

Collective2: CPB out

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Didn't post this last week when I should have. Campbell Soup ( CPB ) suffered at the hands of analysts who cut their ratings on the stock. Prudential and Credit Suisse , both took pot shots at the stock. The play was stopped out on the resulting gap from the first of the two downgrades. The 300 share lot closed for a -$75 loss. Collective2

Trade Ideas: NAVG

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Large caps and tech indices started their upside breaks from bullish flags. Volume remained pitiful, but climbed from that of Friday's - a minor accumulation day. Still plenty of work for the markets to do, but at least it is heading in the right direction. The Blogger Sentiment Poll has turned the most bullish since its inception on July 7th. In every poll I have remained one of the bullish participants. As for today's stock scan, there were a couple of Trade Ideas picks which were topping the daily frequency list: EWW ( 35 ), NAVG ( 33 ) and AXS ( 30 ). Navigator's group ( NAVG ) perhaps has the most interesting chart. The stock confirmed a double bottom in June/July (lows of $40, neckline at $44.62) before entering a sideways consolidation handle. Volume slipped as the sideways $44-46 range congested. A break of $46 looks ready to occur in the next day or two, setting up a challenge of $50.19. Not shown in the chart is the supporting presence of the 200-day MA ($44.

Fallondpicks.com: Weekend commentary

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The market closed the week as it started it, quietly. Suffice to say, there was little change as to what had gone before. The only big change was the sharp drop in volatility , which ran in contrast to the small changes in the tech markets. For the nitpickers amongst you, there were some observations that should be monitored. In the Dow , on-balance-volume is back testing support of the 20-day MA - where before, it was long standing resistance. The index ended the week below 11,324 support, but held 11,285 support - I would consider this a broad, brush stroke of support and wouldn't sweat the small moves inside this range. The S&P wasn't as afflicted by its declines as the Dow, retaining the higher of its two support levels at 1,294. The Russell 2000 didn't produce the bounce off converged 20-day and 50-day MAs it looked ready to do, but neither did it close below these two averages, Monday is another day. The semiconductor index saw a drop in its CCI indicator, fal

Stockcharts.com: Weekly review

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I regularly scour through Stockchart.com's Public List to get a snapshot of what other market commentators are saying. This week's crop include some of the comments from the most popular chart lists. First up is Ted Burge's support/resistance study. He had this to say on August 24th. It is a matter of fact if you watch the charts. There are 11 new buy signals and 9 new sell signals with movement to O's dominating the activity. A 3 box reversal of price is normal price activity, it doesn't mean sell. Stocks trading an average of 1,000,000 shares are in demand and over the last 5 trading days there have been 37 new buy signals and only 10 new sell signals for stocks meeting these criteria. Only 2 of the 10 sell signals trade on the Nasdaq. Demand is the flavor and has been for a couple of weeks. No matter what you think will happen, and no matter what happens, S/R tells where to expect it to happen. Major indices are on buy signals (BUY SIGNALS) and PnF buy and sell

Trade Ideas: PVA, CAM, MDZ, MCD, IDT, CEI, EZPW, CPV

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** I plan to get a regular update for Subscribers done tonight** Another quiet day for the markets. The Trade Ideas scan took 2 minutes to generate 8 picks. The most frequent pick to appear over the course of the day was PVA at 23 times , with CAM a distant second at 14 times (although the latter popped up twice in the space of the 2 minute time period used for pick selection). EZPW was the only pick to generate a bearish cross of the 20-day/50-day MAs. All remaining picks had made bullish crosses in their 20-day/50-day MAs over the course of the last 2 months. Penn Virginia Corp ( PVA ) has shaped a 4-month, bullish ascending triangle with resistance at $71.80 (a broad brush stroke between $71.00 and $71.80 would probably be more accurate). Support at $68, is underlined by the rising 50-day MA, and is a good place for stops. The point-n-figure chart is neutral for a price pattern, but has a price objective of $90. A move to $73 would generate an ascending triple top breakout on

Trade Ideas: XRX, CCE, EBF, BWC, AGO, BKD, SFI, ACXM

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A slight increase in bearish pressure for the markets (the Russell 2000 in particular), failed to spike volatility above its prior consolidation breakdown, nor reverse upside breakouts in the key averages. Low volatility = low fear, which keeps markets in a bullish bias. The Trade Ideas scan represented this action with a longer time span necessary to select 8 different picks; Wednesday's picks covered a time span of 10 minutes . No one pick shined for the day; XRX featured 17 times over the course of today, BKD , BWC , CCE and AGO were all in the teens for appearances, although AGO featured 4 times in the last 10 minutes of the day. Brookdale Senior Living ( BKD ) is currently in my Collective2 portfolio and remains in good shape. Weekly resistance at $47.50 is still a challenge, and cautious buyers may wish for and end-of-week close above this price before buying. The 50-day MA was picture-perfect support on the last test and is a good place for stops. Trade Ideas

Trade Ideas: SIE, ECA, ORA, PMX, IMO, SJM, IDT, IFOX

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Another quiet day for the markets, with modest activity on the Trade Ideas scan. Today's selection covered a time span of 3 minutes ; slighltly slower than is typical in a strong bullish day. Most frequent to appear was ORA , with 37 appearances over the course of today. SJM was next up at 23 appearances, while IFOX was the laggard, with only 5 hits since the day started. Unusually, SIE and SJM are both dealing with bearish crossovers in the 20-day/50-day MAs. Although suffering some scrappy action, IDT , has had the most recent bullish cross in the 20-day/50-day MAs. EnCana Corp. ( ECA ) has one of the better long term charts, with a solid base stretching over 11-months. A close over $55 would be reason enough to go long. $55.89 is the pivot buy for breakout traders. Stops can go on a loss of $52.24 or the 50-day MA (whichever is higher). Point-n-figure chart target of $71 looks reasonable, part of an ascending triple top breakout from July 31st. Trade Ideas If you

Commentary from Fallondpicks.com

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Although I have been absent from watching the markets for the last few days, the overall picture hasn't changed enough to suggest bears have re-taken control. The NASDAQ channel breakout remains in play. The semiconductor index is well clear of its former channel and 50-day MA. For the large caps, 1,294 holds as support in the S&P and 11,324 in the Dow , both can be considered breakouts. The morning gap down in the NASDAQ 100 didn't generate a strong wave of selling, but near term support at 1,557 is looking vulnerable (day traders will probably find the most action in this level gives way). Short traders will have loaded up on the test of the 200-day MA in the Russell 2000 and bulls will probably let them have a few points before stepping up to the plate on the convergence of the 20-day and 50-day MAs. Volatility closed just below the 20-day MA and the point of its convergence with former triangle support - a low volatility period should play out from here, which

From: Fallondpicks.com

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** Partial updates until next Thursday for my Blog and Website. I am available to answer email queries from paid Subscribers ** Bulls just keep on rolling. Thursday's action was led by the break of dual channel resistance in the NASDAQ , to follow earlier breaks this week in the NASDAQ 100 and Dow . There was also a change in relative strength, as the Russell 2000 assumes leadership over the S&P { Tech Indices > Small Cap > Large cap }, shifting the money action in favor of more speculative issues - also bullish. Unlike previous attempts by market indices to rally, in which on-balance-volume has lagged, all the key indices trade above their 20-day EMA trigger. In addition, the NASDAQ 100 breached on-balance-volume resistance dating back to May. Market internals [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] all look very healthy as the $BPCOMPQ followed the $NASI with its break of 3-month declining resistance. The $NAA50 pulled off its own trick, with a break of rising channe

Trade Ideas: HEI

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Better breadth to the Trade Ideas scan today, than yesterday. Again, 8 different picks covered a time span of 1 minute . Market volume picked up for its third straight day, not bad for the 'vacation' month of August. Rallies in the NASDAQ 100 and Semiconductor index are well underway. Scan pick of the day is Heico ( HEI ). The stock is bounding between short term support and resistance of $30 and $32, but also ranks as a channel breakout. This followed a positive test of the 200-day MA in June/July, the first test of which was accompanied with excellent volume. Plenty of room to challenge 52-week highs. HEICO Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of aerospace, defense, and electronics related products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates in two segments, Flight Support Group and Electronic Technologies Group. Trade Ideas If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, fo

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : August 8th

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Tuesday's gains were enough to push the Qs and SPY into a weekly profit ( +0.88% ). It also helped turn a profit for my Newsletter stocks ( +1.00% ), but unfortunately, not the Trade Ideas ( -0.52% ) scan picks. Jim Cramer's picks were incorrectly listed for yesterday - these picks should have been listed for today's comparison. JC recorded a flat return on the week ( +0.04% ). The best pick for the week was Jim Cramer's IACI . It closed the week up +8.38% . Jim Cramer's WCI shed -12.11% and was the week's worst performer. If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's picks you can tune into his TV show, or get them from Madd Money or Mad Money Recap . SPONSORED BY:-

Trade Ideas: ROP

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Solid gains in the markets didn't really translate to the Trade Ideas scan. There were too many energy and defensive plays on the real-time scan to suggest good breadth to Tuesday's actions. Traders remain skeptical about jumping into this market with two feet. In terms of frequency, for the scan to generate 8 different stock picks took 1 minute . The best looking stock on the list was Roper Industries ( ROP ). A three month channel consolidation was breached to the upside. The 50-day MA looks to be support where before (in July) it was not (although the 200-day MA fit the bill in that case). Stops can be placed on a loss of the 50-day MA. Look for a move to $60, even though the point-n-figure chart shows a downside target of $34 (but no price pattern). Roper Industries, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and distribution of energy systems and controls, scientific and industrial imaging products and software, industrial technology products, instrumentation products and se

Fallond / Trade Ideas / Jim Cramer : August 7th

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A poor week all round, although there were no newsletter picks of mine to compare. The Trade Ideas scan came out tops, with a small -0.14% loss. Jim Cramer 's Lightning round picks had the poorest performance, closing down an average of -1.80% per trade. The market ETF 's knocked around somewhere in between ( -0.64% ). The worst performer on the week was Jim Cramer's, WCI . The stock closed down -17.65% following a downgrade by UBS . The best pick was also one of Jim Cramer's, IACI . It finished the week up +7.09% . Of the Trade Ideas picks I had suggested HITT as the pullback play. It finished the strongest of the 8 Monday picks, closing up +3.38% . If you would like to try a full version of the Trade-Ideas software, follow this link for a free 7-day trial. If you would like to subscribe to my newsletter you can do so by ordering monthly, 6-month, or annual membership from the 'Quantity' box in the right-hand-margin. If you would like to see Jim's

Inflation problem? Not any more

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According to Technorati, references to "Inflation" are on the rise. But is it really the problem it once was? Inflation reared its head in gold in late 2002: and in oil prices during early 2004: But inflation doesn't appear to be the bugbear it once was because: *Commodities look to have peaked for the foreseeable future. Gold loss of near term support and is well off its highs Watch for break of support in copper, an important industrial commodity (it hasn't happened yet) Short term supply concerns in oil have produced a scrappy chart *Six months of an inverted yield curve has substantially raised the prospect of a recession in the coming year (= reduced demand). *Improving dollar with plenty of room for upside. A rising dollar is disinflationary This chart first featured here on May 2nd and is behaving quite nicely: If inflation is not the problem the fear mongerers would have you believe then what should one be investing in? Stick to sectors which do well as int

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