Showing posts from December, 2005


Today's selection spanned 13 minutes of time for the Trade-Ideas software, a reflection of the slow day for the market. Here are the picks: VLCM : Weekly cup-and-handle pattern. Projected target of $49, add on break of $36, currently trading at $34.07. Good value. Stops on loss of $33. CG : Slow-and-steady advance from $22 on the weekly chart. Pressuring $44 resistance. Ride the trend. STFC : Pushing over December resistance as part of the 2005 rally (see weekly chart). Has far exceeded it point-n-figure target of $27 but this run still has legs. CVP : Thinly traded but is on the way to shaping a right-hand-side base; note on weekly chart how $13 has been strong resistance in the past. This 2003 IPO has merits. VSH : Small handle off $14 resistance. Like the previous pick this is in the process of building a base. A break of $14 will see the start of the right-hand-side of a cup take shape. One to watch. MDP : Only a couple points shy of major supply from 2004. The break of $52 loo


Another 4-minute spread on the software picks. Some reasonable plays to review. AIG : Bounced off the 50-day MA, currently working a challenge of the 52-week high. Expect supply to be a concern in the $72-75 range but this has come a long way from it early lows of $49.56. ROK : Second day of gains on light volume. Decent ascent from $50. Ride the trend. Weekly chart looks to be shaping a cup-and-handle pattern. Projected target of $79. MECA : Solid support at 50-day MA. Good value at current prices as it works a 2-month base. A push over $10 will have this trading at new 5-year highs, as it stands now it is close to making new 3-year highs. Best of the bunch FLO : Sold off hard in early November. Bounced to fill the gap and currently trades in a well defined handle at gap resistance. Looks ready to push higher but keep stops on a loss of $27. PARL : Weekly chart shows potential for a rounding top having worked its way from $2.25 lows in 2003 (pre-split???). Current consolidation has su


Today's picks only took 4 minutes by the software. Given the lateness of the post I will just leave the charts of the 8 picks. If you would like to try the software yourself, follow this link for a free 7-day trial

Collective 2: PDC out

Botched the stop on this. Originally wanted it tight to the lows of the entry candlestick, but gave the trade more leeway when the stock dropped below what would have been its stop. The second attempt to break $19 failed. The current bounce off support has upside merits - but my new stop was placed to close to support and was whipped out. The biggest loss on this portfolio to date; $1,130 or 6%. Just two positions remain in the portfolio.


Okay, today's list took over an hour for the software to compile; a mix of holidday trading and a nasy Santa sell off (who were bold boys and girls this year?). CLFC : Effectively stuck in a trading range for the last 6-months bound by $22 and $29. At $26 it is right in the middle. 50-day MA holding. Weekly chart shows steady gains; long term bullish. TWI : Gapped up big in October and has held this gain very well on merger talks. The failure of the gap to close (or even approach a decent attempt at such) is bullish. Positive money flow and a 'buy' signal in the PPO after 2 1/2 months of consolidation says it all. Will the $18 bid per share be topped? RADN : Breaking from a bullish flag after a positive test of the 50-day MA. Some decent volume to go with it. FAC : Weekly chart shows bullish ascending triangle, daily chart shows strong (positive) money flow and an improving PPO. Sizable block trade went through this afternoon. Break of $10.50 could see this fly PUK : At res

Trade Ideas Update Dec 16th

Mixed bag for the December 16th Trades Idea selection. Markets finished flat for the five days with the Base breakout returning a slight net profitabilty thanks to KEYS 6.7% gain over the 5 days. If you would like to try the software yourself, follow this link for a free 7-day trial

Christmas round up

As the week wraps up will bulls be seeing a continuation of the work Santa's elves did in the run up to Christmas? Markets are back pressuring resistance which may keep things under wraps until later next week. I did a quick run through on my picks and the following is a list of stocks with watch list merit: Of my Subscriber picks: Thinking of subscribing? . Do so today. Your support is always appreciated. ADCT : Shaping a RHS base ATAC : Very close to a consolidation buy; technicals shaping up nicely. AXCA : Working on a handle from a four month base BECN : Coming up through the bottom end of a scrappy base. BEC : Looks primed to close the July breakdown gap BGP : Finally putting some distance from the closed October breakdown gap. WIRE : Resetting the technicals after a solid run. Holding support of $22.50. ENG : Subscribers got this one at $6. I offered it as a freebie pick at $7, and now trades at $8.72 after a big volume move today. LUK : Working its way out of another base a

Trade Ideas Update Dec 15th

Trade-Ideas picks outperformed the indices with 50% of the trades profitable. Max high gains were also better than corresponding indices gains. OTTR was the only disappointment. If you would like to try the software yourself, follow this link for a free 7-day trial

Trade-Ideas: HLF

The Trade-Ideas software was not lacking in stocks for today. One that caught my eye was HLF. It should be noted the company HQ is in the Cayman islands, but the chart looks good. Herbalife, Ltd. offers weight management, nutritional supplement, and personal care products in the United States. If you would like to try the software yourself, follow this link for a free 7-day trial

Trade Ideas Update Dec 14th

Featured stocks managed decent gains over the 5-day trading days; maximum gains far exceeded gains in the indices. However, only 25% of the picks were profitable as of today's closing price compared to no profitbaility in the indices.

Could 2006 be the year of the Strike?

As the New York transit strike goes into a second day how many other unions will follow suit? Strikes are part of the inflationary cycle as workers demand higher wages to cover increased utilities, mortgage and credit costs. Some speculate this could tip the economy over after Katrina's body blow. Time will tell.

Trade Ideas: IBI

Watch for break of bullish flag following a strong move past $21.71 resistance (now new support). Interline Brands, Inc. engages in the distribution and direct marketing of maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products in North and central America. It distributes approximately 45,000 standard and specialty MRO products in various product categories, including plumbing; electrical; hardware; heating, ventilating, and air conditioning; security hardware; appliances and parts; janitorial chemicals and sanitary supplies; window and floor coverings; and paint and paint accessories. If you would like to try the software yourself, follow this link for a free 7-day trial

Fallondpicks: Strong performer AAUK

This has been a great stock for investors and traders. Another small consolidation looks set to break to the upside. Featured to Subscribers for July 29th and as a free Breakout feature for November 1st This, and other free picks can be found on my public list . When you visit the site please scroll down to the bottom of the page and 'Vote!' for the list.

Trade Ideas: Follow up Dec 13th

Not surprisingly after yesterday's big losses there were no winners on the list. Both markets and stocks failed to score a single profitable trade. However, stocks did manage gains over the 5-trading day period and the average max gain exceeded that of the markets.

Trade-Ideas: FFIV

Bulls are licking their wounds following yesterday's losses. One of the few picks on the day, FFIV, has managed to break resistance of a recent consolidation. F5 Networks, Inc. provides application traffic management products worldwide. The company develops, manufactures, and sells products and services to help companies manage their Internet traffic.

Trade Ideas: Follow up Dec 12th

A mixed bag preformance; the majority of the trades were profitable but the average return was flat. Maximum gains outperformed market max gains although PTY failed in this regard too.

Trade Ideas: RG

Not 100% on this one, but keeps popping up on my Base Breakout scan. It did make a solid test of support and broke declining resistance, but it is not in the clear yet and today's market is not cause for optimism if you are a bull.

Marketocracy: WCN out

Failed to hold support at any of the moving averages and looks destined to retest October lows. A crumbling market doesn't help.

Someone is always right.

Came across this site the ELLIOT WAVE lives on over the weekend. The following is directly quoted from Tony's most recent post. I don't have his optimism but its an opinion worth presenting. LONG TERM: BULLISH We continue to maintain that the bull market from the October 2002 continues. Four primary waves have been completed and we are in a subdividing fifth wave. Major wave 1 completed early this year, and its correction wave 2, completed in late April. The advance into the early August highs was intermediate wave i of major wave 3, and its correction into the October lows wave ii. Major wave 3 is subdividing! Currently we are in intermediate wave iii, of major wave 3, of primary wave V. This implies: upon completion of this intermediate term advance ending wave iii, a correctional wave iv should then occur prior to another intermediate term advance to end major wave 3. Then a correction of this entire wave 3 will then occur, only to be followed by another intermediate term a Weekend commentary

The weakness which first appeared in the Russell 2000 spread to both the tech indices [ NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 ] as each lost their respective 20-day MAs. Options expiration will have disguised the importance (if any) of Friday's heavy volume, but going on the QQQQ s, this volume was light. All is not lost for the tech markets; the semiconductor index is bumping along resistance but is above its 20-day MA, as the $BPCOMPQ gained. The strength in latter indicator runs contrary to the $NASI and $NAA50 which sit firmly in the bear camp. Intermediate term traders will likely have bailed on Friday's action, but long term holders could wait for confirmation of weakness in the $BPCOMPQ which so far has indicated little. Large caps were more mixed as breakouts from earlier during the week held into Friday, but the Dow has put in a sequence of two gravestone dojis (confirmation will come on a close below the lowest of the two days lows) and the S&P remained bound by 1,275

Thoughts on the Current State of the Market

This was from my contribution: I had commented pre-market how indicators such as the NASDAQ Summation index, and NASDAQ stocks over their 50-day MA, had flipped negative even though the parent index changed little on the day. I had also said in my Wednesday commentary: One indicator I have not mentioned too much about is the $SPXA50 (number of S&P stocks over their 50-day MA)...... It currently sits at 445 which has exceeded its prior high of 421 from July. When the indicator hit its July high the S&P topped just over a month later." There are two things you can take from an indicator which stated 89% of the S&P composite stocks were bullish: [1] It takes a long time to turn a ship - an actual top in the S&P does not immediately follow a top in this indicator (as was the case earlier this year); stocks don't collapse through their 50-day MAs all at the same time, its a gradual decay as fewer and fewer stocks carry the index on their shoulders. Net ef


Today's scan took 25 minutes to come up with 8 stocks. Slow times for the market and as I noted in my pre-market notes - there are reasons to be concerned. The current sideways action needs to follow through soon or buyers will drift away and there will be no more support to hold these levels. Today's 8 picks are: KEY : Nice morning gap open which cleared November reaction highs and sits a dollar shy of an ascending triple top breakout on the point-n-figure chart (at new all-time highs). Ride the trend in this steady performer. USG : Working through a 3-month base as it trades just above its 50-day MA. One to accumulate. Strong support at $60. Clear air above $70. Some could argue a test of 200-day MA is needed to ground support - in which case expect sideways trading to continue. Featured on as a Breakout for September 16th 2004 when it traded at $18.80. VMSI : Still influenced by October's "death cross" but money flow is rising and a reversal


If time was considered a factor in measuring market strength then the 20-minute span it took Trade-Ideas to come up with a list of 8 stocks could be a fairly good measure of how little quality is left out there to buy (ordinarily the software comes up with a list of 8 good stocks in under 5 minutes). Anyhow, here is today's list. BEAS : Weekly chart is of most interest. Break of $9.50 would be good for a run to $12.50. Large ascending triangle in play MAN : Back on the lists again. Liked it earlier in the week and still like it now. THQI : Bullish engulfing pattern if it can hold above $23.58 into the close. Some big volume in early morning trading. Has merits. A move to $25 would mark a double top breakout in the point-n-figure chart with no overhead resistance and a PnF target of $38.50. MSTR : Potential bullish 'hammer' but the stock isn't oversold enough to suggest a strong reversal singal here. Trading within a tight range $72.50-$79. A weekly close over $80 would

Collective 2: AIRT and CALP dropped

Both broke key support levels and were cut from the Collective2 portfolio. A new stock was added in the morning but cash remains the primary holding.

Trade Ideas: D, CLDN, PXD, AHC, TSO, MLM, CN, FADV

Today's picks include a stock I mailed to subscribers on November 3rd D: Working on the right hand-side of a base. Target price of $86.89 well within range here. Watch for a cup-and-handle pattern of $86 resistance. CLDN: Found support at 50-day MA. Steady advancer. Ride the trend. PXD: Small cup-and-handle pattern. Watch for break of $54. AHC: Pivot buy is $132.60. Declining money flow is a concern but a solid close over $132.50 would convert the last 2-months of trading into net stock longs. TSO: Nicely positioned at the 50-day MA following its correction off $70 highs. Has come a long way from $6 in 2003 (pre-split???). MLM: Trading at new near term highs and ready to challenge $81 resistance. Projected target of $91. Point-n-figure chart target of $87. CN: Too illiquid to have merits. Weekly chart shows strong support at 40-week MA (200-day MA) of which this week was one such test (Monday). FADV: Building pressure at $29. Positive money flow on increasing volume is good news fo


Today's picks from the Base Breakout scan SLF: Nice pullback to the 20-day MA to consolidate the November gap up. Run stops on loss of 20-day MA look for move to $47-48. PP: A mini 2-month cup-and-handle pattern. Pivot buy is $41.57. Stops on a loss of $40.50. Good for a move to $45 with no overhead resistance. MAN: Spent most of November and December trading in a tight range. Today could be the day we see a close above $48. Room for a move to $56, although the point-n-figure shows a move to $51 will be enough to put this at multi-year highs with no overhead resistance. Best of picks . CORS: Limping along upwards. Vulnerable to a big day sell off. Not the best of the picks here but slow and steady could win the race. FADV: Broke its ascending triangle to the upside yesterday. Holding gains today. PNP: Mini-handle forming off $67.50 resistance. Above this price is fresh air. Minimum upside target is $79.50. The small handle allows for a relatively low risk entry with stops around $6


First of this week's Trade-Ideas picks TDK: Big support at $79 but too thinly traded to be able to buy more than a few hundred shares. Projected target of $100 although the point-n-figure chart has a target of $124. BRW: Upside break of an ascending triangle. Short term traders can look for a move to $21.50. A move to $22 will mark a significant breakout with the point-n-figure chart of $27 well within range CEN: If it can hold above $23 this nicely angled ascent should continue. A good case for following the trend. Point-n-figure target of $39.50 looks feasible within 12 months. SSL: Working through a base. A break of $36 will complete a double bottom with a measured move forward of $42. Weekly chart shows steady gains over the last two years, which started from $5 in 2000 according to the point-n-figure chart KEYS: Nice base development here. Looks a good opportunity to get in before it challenges (and likely breaks) $32 resistance. Weekly chart shows a cup-and-handle pattern. G

Fallondpicks: Weekend update

Markets spent the week digesting their big October and November gains. The attempted break of late November resistance failed in all markets, but the swift decline which often follows such reversals ('bull traps') never materialized. It will have been apparent to my subscribers that my suggested short plays for the last couple of weeks have drawn a blank; never short a dull market and this looks to be holding true. So is an intermediate term (3-9 month) top in place? Given the lackluster performance in the short plays, and continued strength in the tech secondary indicators [ $NASI , $NAA50 and $BPCOMPQ ] the answer would look to be 'No'. The 20-day MAs have held as support in the NASDAQ , NASDAQ 100 , and S&P with the previously underperforming small caps lingering close to major resistance, and well above its 20-day MA. Only the Dow looks to be struggling but even here there is major support at 10,708. At this stage another leg up can't be excluded. Gold

Trade-Ideas: Follow up from December 2nd

For all of next week I will be running the Breakout scan and comparing its performance the following week. Below is the last of the prior 8-stock scan results. It was another good week for the Trade-Ideas selection. None of the markets were profitable for this period but 75% of stocs drawn from my Base Breakout scan were, with an average return of just over 1%. Best of the picks was NUVA. If you would like to try the software yourself, follow this link for a free 7-day trial

Trade-Ideas: CCI

This stock had first featured on my websites Breakout section for November 10th 2004 . The stock has climbed from its then price of $16.58 to Friday's close of $27.57. The current triangle consolidation was likely triggered by its late October earnings release . Certainly the stock has held its gains following its run and looks to be preparing for its next upward surge. If buying run stops on a loss of $26.15. Crown Castle International Corp. (CCI) engages in the ownership, operation, and lease of towers for wireless communications. The company leases antenna space on its towers that accommodates multiple tenants, as well as provides certain network services, such as antenna installations, network design and site selection, site acquisition, site development, and other services to its customers.

Trade-Ideas: Follow up December 1st

Yesterday's review was a sea of green, today's is a river of blood. Of couse - yours truely has NSIT (the worst perfomer) in his ROTH-IRA. But even with the swathes of red the picks still outperformed the markets. The two picks which gained are in the energy sector.

Trade Ideas: PXD

Caught this one late into the close. Confirmation of a mini-double bottom (the stock held above its 200-day MA throughout its correction). With energy prices on the move again there could be a nice follow on run in this stock. Nothing wrong with the fundamentals of this stock; EPS of $3.42 with a P/E of 15.40. Pioneer Natural Resources Company operates as an oil and gas exploration, and production company. The company produces oil, natural gas liquids, and gas.

Collective 2: ABNK out

Following its all cash take over this has been removed from the portfolio for a small gain. Not much else of quality to add to the portfolio so I will be looking to ride the current plays for as much gain as I can bank.

Trade-Ideas: Follow up November 30th

Much better performance from the Trade-Ideas picks for November 30th. Don't shoot the messenger, but my comments on GFIG at the time: Potential double top at $47. Keep on watch list for now. It is holding support at the 50-day MA but not the best looking of the 8 picks here. has left me eating humble pie with its performance over the last week.

SEC browsing the blogs....

Interesting traffic to my site today. I wonder how many other blogs have been visited by the SEC?

Trade-Ideas: Follow up November 29th

As a simple week-on-week comparison the returns were disappointing. Like yesterday's selection only 38% of the trades were profitable leaving an average net loss for the 8 picks, but when maximum gains were considered the returns were more substantial. If you would like to try the software yourself, follow this link for a free 7-day trial

Collective 2: CALP added

This stock was sent to my stock pick newsletter subscribers for November 21st [Active subscription starting at $14.99 per month needed to view link]. I have now added this to my Collective2 portfolio following a break from a bullish flag. Caliper Life Sciences, Inc. engages in the development and commercialization of life science instruments and related consumables used in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries worldwide. It uses liquid handling, automation, and LabChip microfluidics technologies to create products for use in drug discovery and development, genomics and proteomics, and molecular diagnostics. If you would like a 30-day free trial of the trading system which puts the stocks I feature in my stock pick list, including stocks unique to this system, to work follow this link .

Trade Ideas: AGU

This appeared on the real-time span at 3:31 PM ET. It looks like favorable comments from todays Citigroup Global Chemical Conference has attracted afternoon buyers. Look for a move to resistance.

Trade-Ideas: Follow up November 28th

This week I will report on the success of last week's Trade-Ideas picks, 7-days post selection. Last Monday's picks were a mixed bag with only 38% profitable as of Monday's close. The average gain for the eight picks was positive (0.52%); maximum gains managed to exceed comparable returns for the market during this period.

Marketocracy: AZN and WCN added

Decided to take advantage of some of the Trade-Ideas picks for the Marketocracy portfolio. First up is AZN: A quality stock which has merits in any portfolio; the confirmed triple bottom should provide support. The second addition is WCN: added on the basis of its pullback and (so far) positive test of its 20-day MA. Looking for a build up in upside momentum to bring it back above its 200-day MA.


Broad selection of stocks from the Trade-Ideas Base-breakout scan. One of the picks NUVA featured as a free Breakout play for June 13th when it traded at $16.85. The stock ran to $20.50 before entering its current consolidation; now providing a second chance to buy, or add to a current position. JPM: Zoomed from $33 to $39 in short order but has encountered supply issues at $39. Break of $39 could set this flying again. One to watch. NUVA: Working its way through a new base after an initial run to $20.50. Holding the 50-day MA nicely. A good stock to dollar-cost-average. AZN: Some nice volume traded when the stock bounced around $45. The right-hand-side of a new base to $49 is taking shape. Investment quality (i.e. buy to hold). BCM: Sneaked through but relatively illiquid. The August breakdown gap has closed and this could go either way. Although it popped up on the scan it doesn't look too attractive as a long side play here. I would have more confidence if it broke $67 resist

Fallondpicks: One year on

A summary table for the state of play of my stock picks featured on for December 1st 2004 one year on. The sub-$10 stocks certainly took a whammy, but solid gains in the remaining picks more than made up for them. JOIN TODAY!


With the markets galloping off into the distance the Trade-Ideas scanner was turning up stock ideas every few seconds. This selection cropped up in the space of 3 minutes using my Base-Breakout scan. For the record, I have replaced the dumped PMACA play with NSIT for my ROTH-IRA. Its mild bullish run should allow for some decent income earning using covered calls. NSIT: Still in its base. Real action will come on break of $23.00. Looking to take advantage of current momentum. RHD: Working itself out of a base on rising money flow and increased volume. Hugging the 40-week MA/200-day MA as part of a strong uptrend. AINV: Keep an eye on $19.50. There is still some residual supply which has lasted the last couple of weeks. DOV: Watch for break of $41.50. It is on its fourth test of this resistance level, but if you look at a weekly picture you can see $42-43 has been resistance for the last 3 years. PTR: Working itself out of a lengthy 4-month base. Positive money flow is a bonus but no re


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