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Showing posts from November, 2008

Holding Station: Watching Summation Indices with interest

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With Thanksgiving soon upon us there was little to add to yesterday's consolidation. Suffice to say, no existing resistance levels were breached. The best thing that could be said for Tuesday were the new MACD trigger 'buys': Summation indices shaping bullish divergences with respect to their parent indices as double tops develop in the VIX and VXN. Clearest case for a bottom yet: Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Zignals YourCall: AIB, BKIR, GOOG, MSFT

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The latest Zignals YourCall feature has three (well four) front-runners from our community. Heading the list with seven calls is Bank of Ireland ( BKIR ). Since my initial call, rumors of " investment " in the bank have helped push the stock out of its short term downward turn. The Zignals outlook based on the seven calls is 100% bullish: Second on the list is Microsoft ( MSFT ). Will a push towards home entertainment over the coming holidays help boost XBOX 360 sales? Of the four calls, one was bearish and four were bullish. All four calls exited with one by Milkob reaching its target (bullish) price for a 2.9% gain in one day. Third on the list was Allied Irish Banks ( AIB ). Tuesday looks to have cleared a resistance level dating back to early October. This comes after Credit Suisse revised targets for AIB down to €1.00 from €3.20 and Bank of Ireland to €0.80 from €2.00. On the Zignals community I have entered a 6-month call for a push back into the supply zone in th

Difficult week to gauge

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With Thanksgiving soon upon us it's going to be hard to read too much into this weeks' action. Monday at least finished stronger than prior two rally attempts in October, but for the tech indices it only brought them back to what was my former double bottom support. Money flow is exhibiting a bullish divergence which may help more than it has in the past. The S&P finished bang on resistance (based on closing price): Transports generatead a 'buy' trigger in stochastics from oversold levels Can the indices mark a third day of gains? Otherwise a tight trading day around resistance to consolidate the past two days of gains would be a welcome alternative. Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Weekly Stock Charts review

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Friday's bright finish couldn't undo another depressing weak for the averages. How did the Stockchart.com ers see it. Yong Pan has seen a broadening of the 'sell' triggers in the S&P with a couple of breadth indicators shifting to neutral from their prior bullishness. Once again, there is another 'bottom' signal - but we have seen similar ones of these fail in the past. It looks like a significant bullish divergence to the early October bottom but will it play like one? This would mean a sharp rally past 1,000 (seems highly unlikely under the circumstances): Yong Pan draws the line in the sand for the short term: No shortage of bullish divergences in the charts - but only have to look at July to see what can happen when they don't play out: Maurice Walker open with FDR's quote on fear and makes fear the focus of his weekend commentary. His lead charts show the fear all too well: I don't believe in his thesis of people selling because of fear of

New KIVA loan from W. Reeves.

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The latest loan comes courtesy of a subscription payment by W. Reeves . If you would like to support KIVA you can do so directly, or by subscribing to my newsletter. I have added a second loan from an earlier repayment. The list of loans active and completed is available here . Altogether, $2,000 has been lent since the start of this promotion. Thanks to all subscribers, current and past, for their support. Hoa is married and the mother of 4 children. She is uneducated and works in tailoring. She has been involved in this business for more than 5 years but has not been able to expand her business. Now she plans to enlarge her business and rent a shop so she completed all the documents and applied for a loan. She requested an individual loan of 40000 Afghans for the term of 10 months to complete her stock and start working hard to attract a good number of clients and make good monthly income for her family to support them better. It is one of her fond wishes and she is sure that she ca

Zignals: Depression Investments

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Republished from Zignals : Drake Bennett at Boston.com penned an article on what a new Depression would like to us. In it were some interesting thoughts, and from that, ideas for investments: Instead of dusty farm families, the icon of a modern-day depression might be something as subtle as the flickering glow of millions of televisions glimpsed through living room windows, as the nation's unemployed sit at home filling their days with the cheapest form of distraction available. Today, a depression could reverse that process altogether. In a deep and sustained downturn, home prices would likely sink further and not rise, dimming the appeal of homeownership, a large part of suburbia's draw. Renting an apartment - perhaps in a city, where commuting costs are lower - might be more tempting. If we look closely, however, we might see more former lawyers wearing knockoffs, doing their back-to-school shopping at Target or Wal-Mart rather than Banana Republic and Abercrombie

Blank slate

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Whatever vestiges of support which lingered from the early October capitulation were undone by yesterday's selling. The Russell 2000 was the first to crack when it undercut it's first October low in late October, but other indices were well off comparable lows back then. Now only the Dow has early October lows to lean on, but it's unlikely to hold them. It's back to watching the breadth indicators and waiting for a bottom in them before turning eyes back to the indices. The Summation Indices give the best indication of a bottom and these are clearly heading downwards: Lets see what Thursday has in store for us: Futures off so look for a gap down at the open. Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Yesterday was a start - but today needs follow through

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Only a late day charge rescued what was on course to be a break of support. Volume sided with the bulls in a strong last hour of trading. On a closing basis we have picture perfect support with a solid bullish divergence in money flow. Stochastics are only a hair away from turning oversold (although a bit too close to support to suggest a break of support is needed to make them oversold): The level of angst as measured by the VIX looks to have apexed at the tip of a bearish wedge. However, don't lose site of the mixed breadth indicators; nothing is firmly bullish. All we have is a good case for support to hold, but nothing to suggest a move past neckline resistance. Get the Fallond Newsletter Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Your Call: Bank of Ireland

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The new YourCall feature on our stock charts allows our chartwatchers to give their projections for their favourite stocks. With its launch less than 24 hours old we have already had some activity in the community. Bank of Ireland's suspension of its dividend and subsequent removal from the Dow Jones STOXX Select Dividend 30 and DJ EURO STOXX Select Dividend 30 Indices contributed to its eight consecutive decline; a decline from 'highs' of €2.38 in early November to Monday's close of €0.83. My own personal call is looking for a retest of November highs near €2.38 with a stop below Tuesday's intraday low (which may yet go lower) at €0.79. JH has gone for a short term target near Monday's highs at €1.10 with a call made from Monday's close at €0.83; JH called a stop at €0.76. TestUser1 (aka Zignals CTO) made a call during Monday's trading at €1.03 but that position was cooked with today's intraday drop to his stop at €0.82. Do you have an opinion

Backtest completed in S&P

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Stochastics completed their backtest and switched to a 'buy' based on technical support. With respect to price, the index has returned to support of the mildly declining price channel. There is very little wiggly room for downside, so the index has to rally from the get-go and stay above yesterday's close. Note bear trend strength is weakening and volume patterns have sided with bulls. Transports doing likewise - although stochastics haven't switched to a 'buy'. Get the Fallond Newsletter But breadth indicators remain mixed with a heavy bearish bias (particularly Summation Indices): Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician, Zignals.com the free stock alerts, market alerts and stock charts website

Weekly Stock Charts review

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Another hectic week in a month full of hectic swings. What did the Stockchart.com ers have to say about it? Yong Pan has the first of two sell signals emerging in the S&P. Is BB width still a little frothy for a bottom (= too much volatilty)? Pan outlines the difficulty markets will have to overcome to classify a follow through day; it looks to be a big ask for Monday ( Futures down in pre-market). Breadth 'sell' signals in Bullish Percents and McClellan Oscillator: Maurice Walker has a long commentary which can be read by following his link . He highlights the Percentage of Stocks Above the 50-day MA as a key indicator for a bottom: Maurice views Friday as a bearish inside day where I would view it as part of a bullish harami. Either way - the two-day highs have to be breached to negate one and confirm the other: His comments on the MACD are important: The MACD should be watched closely. The MACD histogram got a bearish triple M pattern (m-M-m) on the indice daily char

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