Showing posts from October, 2010

Weekly Market Commentary: Market Creep

Markets finished the week slightly higher as breadth moved contrary to market gains. The S&P barely scrapped a gain as momentum cracked into overbought territory. ($SPX) via Although S&P breadth has shifted to the downside. See how NYSE Summation Index reversed before it managed a challenge on declining resistance. ($NYSI) via This reversal is clearer in the Percentage of S&P Stocks above the 50-day MA. If ever there was a call for a top in the S&P, this it it: ($SPXA50R) via The Nasdaq is fast approaching a 2008 reaction high c2,535. Stochastics are overbought, but not quite the levels of late 2009 / early 2010. Nasdaq via The Nasdaq 100 has actually managed to get to the second of two reaction highs in 2007! Stochastics have also reached the rich levels of 2009/2010. Can this be true! Watch Nasdaq 100 for leads next week. ($NDX) via But as for the S&P, breadth f

Daily Market Commentary: Markets Drift Out of Rising Channels

Given I missed yesterday's market action the net sum of the past two days saw markets drift outside of their rising channels, but this action occurred without triggering a sell off. The S&P shows this clearly, although the break of the August-October channel is riding channel resistance (turned support) of the July-October rally and the 20-day MA. ($SPX) via The drift was a little more subtle in the Nasdaq. Today's close looks like a bearish 'hanging man' for the rally. A gap down and lower close Friday will confirm. ($COMPQ) via The Russell 2000 was not so subtle in its action, suffering a more traditional down day. There was also a 'sell' trigger in the ADX to add to ones for the CCI and MACD. However, it did defend the 20-day MA for a second day. ($RUT) via However, semiconductors continue to pound the numbers. A big day yesterday glossed over lackluster action in lead markets. ($SOX) via Stock

Daily Market Commentary: Toys With Support

This time it was bulls who toyed with bears. The S&P finished with a doji at support as my anticipated morning sell off failed to stick. The S&P was able to return to its opening price, but perhaps more interestingly, it was unable to break above intraday resistance of 1,187.5 from Monday. Watch this level for Wednesday as shorts may attack aggressively here. AAAAAAAAAB S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) : " via " The Nasdaq gapped below rising channel support but was able to make it a few points above yesterday's close. ($COMPQ) via The semiconductor index also closed with a doji, but there was enough bullish momentum to reverse the early technical bear signs. ($SOX) via Other bearish markers in the indices haven't reversed yet, keeping with their net bullish technical picture. Tomorrow is a toss up but the fact that indices are failing to push off their rising channel support suggest bears cou

Daily Market Commentary: Supply Overhead

For the first time, bulls encountered some of the supply issues they will likely face in the days ahead. The initial morning advance gave way to selling, selling which intensified after bulls attempted a late afternoon rally. Tomorrow could be ugly. The S&P finished the day with a 'Shooting Star', but also enjoyed a 'Golden Cross' between 50-day and 200-day MAs. Volume climbed to register an accumulation day - although churning would be a better description of the days trading volume. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq also closed with a 'Shooting Star' down at support of its narrow channel. ($COMPQ) via The Russell 2000 closed with a 'Golden Cross' and a 'Shooting Star' ($RUT) via The only index to buck the trend was the semiconductor index. It was able to put my ground between itself and its 200-day MA. ($SOX) via Of breadth indicators, the Nasdaq Summation Index followed

Weekly Market Commentary: Markets Keep Rising

Small gains for the market kept markets ticking higher, but breadth indicators are showing a tiring market rally. Stochastics for the S&P are not yet overbought and with the MACD trending higher it's not yet signaling a top. I still like a test of 1,222 before November Election results are declared. ($SPX) via The Percentage of S&P Stocks above the 50-day MA has defended 93% resistance; will the result be a modest loss like the summer of 2009, or a larger loss like the spring of 2010? ($SPXA50R) via The Nasdaq is on course to test 2,535 as rising volume declines. Like the S&P it's not yet overbought. Nasdaq : " via The Percentage of Nasdaq Stocks above the 50-day MA stretched to 76% before it reversed. It closed the week at 74%, but should this week's losses extend for another couple of weeks it could get ugly for the Nasdaq. A reason to take profits on gains if nothing else. AAAA Nasdaq Perce

Daily Market Commentary: Wide Range Day

In the end it was a day which was difficult to pin down. The S&P and Nasdaq finished with black 'spinning top' candlesticks - potentially bearish, but there was no break of support. The S&P is very close to a 'Golden Cross' which would firm up bullish support. ($SPX) via But the Nasdaq was able to go one better on a day of higher volume accumulation; is this a buying opportunity? ($COMPQ) via Small Caps took the worst of the selling, although the technical picture looks weaker than the current price situation. ($RUT) via But really, it's all about breadth, and other than the Percentage of Stocks above the 50-day MA (which has topped), other breadth indicators support a continuation of the rally. ($NASI) via Friday could see the market push back (higher) but as each day passes the narrow trading range which is developing could turn into a significant supply zone should markets sna

Daily Market Commentary: Buying Support?

Today's action was an effective switch on yesterday's selling except for yesterday's big gap down which remained in play. The S&P recovered from a potential bull trap to bring it back inside its narrow rising channel. However, the MACD didn't recover from its 'Sell' trigger. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq is also hugging channel support and is about to 'Golden Cross' its 50-day MA to 200-day MA. ($COMPQ) via The Russell 2000 closed higher, but left with a MACD trigger 'sell'. ($RUT) via The semiconductor index sits at converged 20-day and 200-day MAs and has so far resisted an easy opportunity to push down to the 50-day MA. But this index has to get itself into gear if the broader rally is going to continue so an index like the Nasdaq 100 can challenge 2007 (pre-credit crunch) highs. ($SOX) via Market Breadth is pushing towards a market top. Technicals in the Percentage o

Daily Market Commentary: Narrow Channels Breakdown

Today's trading was the first real selloff since the end of September. There was some significant technical moves in the market too. The S&P broke the narrow rising channel and left behind a potential bull trap with respect to the broader (and slower) rising channel. Volume climbed to register a distribution day. If the Bull Trap plays as true (i.e. there is no push above 1,185 by the start of next week) then the chances of a rapid move back to lower support of the broad rising channel, currently around 1,070, is very high. The upcoming 'Golden Cross' between 50-day and 200-day MA is the best long-term development (and hope) for bulls. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are hanging on to narrow channel support. The closing 'spinning top' candlestick at support marks the yet-to-be-decided battle between bulls and bears. Volume climbed to register a distribution day. Bulls have very little room for maneuver, but if bulls are to step up, Wed

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Start The Week Positively

Markets continued to trade inside their narrowly defined rising channels. Only the semiconductor index disappointed with a lower close - but one which held its 200-day MA. ($SOX) via The S&P closed near the day's high, breaking two days of quiet trading. ($SPX) via The Russell 2000 is trading in the middle of its rising channel, but relative strength has shifted away from small caps towards tech (more bearish). ($RUT) via Although Tech is getting a little stretched with a potential shooting star for the Nasdaq 100. ($NDX) via September's consolidation may be the buffer for a measured move in the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 (and S&P to a lesser degree). This could see the S&P touch 1,250 and the Nasdaq get to 2,585. Bulls maintain control of the market. Follow Me on Twitter Build a Trading Strategy Business in Zignals Subscribe to one of 58 trading strategies covering US, UK, Canada, F

Weekly Market Commentary: Pulling Away From Summer Consolidations

It was a good week for indices with across the board gains. Markets remain on course to test long standing resistance levels. The S&P pushed higher on heavy volume accumulation. The 1,222 level is looking an attractive upside target for this advance. ($SPX) via The Nasdaq lacked the volume but added nearly 3% on the week. Nasdaq via The Nasdaq 100 went one better; adding 3.5% and breaking through resistance. This index is closest to regaining back all of the banking-housing crisis losses. ($NDX) via The only disappointment on the week was the rather tepid gain in the Russell 2000. It is still some way from challenging 2010 highs, let alone highs of 2007. ($RUT) via On the warning sign front, the Percentage of S&P Stocks above the 50-day MA touched 93% - the highest it had managed in the past before it reversed. In terms of likely market response; the 2009 '93' changed very little and the S

Daily Market Commentary: Recovers Losses

A neutral day for the markets; a spate of buying in the last hour helped recover earlier losses. Volume, while high, was not greater than yesterday's - so no confirmed distribution. The S&P is holding former rising channel support ($SPX) via Same with the Dow ($INDU) via For other indices there was little to add. Google's afterhours boost may be enough to see markets push higher and keep bulls buying. Follow Me on Twitter Build a Trading Strategy Business in Zignals Subscribe to one of 58 trading strategies covering US, UK, Canada, Forex, ETFs, Frankfurt, Australia or Irish Markets Dr. Declan Fallon, Senior Market Technician for , offers a range of stock trading strategies for global markets, also available through the latest rich internet application for finance, the Zignals MarketPortal or the Zignals Trading Strategy MarketPlace . Zignals offers a full suite of financial services including price and f

Daily Market Commentary: Bulls Press On

It was another day where Bulls again kept control of the market. There was yet another accumulation day to add to the bull column. The biggest winners were the Dow as it pushed past channel resistance - toasting the last of the shorts. ($INDU) via And the Russell 2000. It enjoyed a solid advance of over 1% in what is a very narrow and acute channel. ($RUT) via The only disappointment was the semiconductor index. Looks like it did its hard work yesterday! ($SOX) via Have we now to look at new channels? For the S&P there is a broader channel which broke today (as it did for the Dow) and a tight, narrow channel, similar to what is seen in the Russell 2000. ($SPX) via Today's gains adds a different perspective to the move started in August. The likely outcome is this rally will continue to a test of resistance of the narrow, trending channels - not just for the S&P and Russell 2000, but for the Nas


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