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Showing posts from July, 2021

Small Loses keep reign on markets

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Markets still haven't pushed on since recovering from the loses in early July.  Where we had the Russell 2000 struggling, now we have the Nasdaq looking weak.  The S&P also took a little knock after a positive Thursday. In reality, we are probably looking at trading ranges and not any imminent collapse, and with (Covid curtailed) holidays in full swing it's hard to see where the demand buying is going to come from. At least with the Nasdaq there was support of the 20-day MA to lean on, although it didn't offer much support earlier in the month. The MACD is still on a 'sell' trigger as other technicals stayed positive.

Yin and Yang; Russell 2000 manages small gain

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The Russell 2000 was one of the better performing indices on the day, but it didn't change the larger picture of an index caught in a trading range.  Today's gain was enough to see a new 'buy' trigger in the MACD as it closed on its 20-day MA.  However, until it makes its way back to trading range resistance it's hard to be optimistic - or pessimistic - as to its potential outcome.  Near term traders could trade from here for a move to channel resistance, but the whipsaw risk is high because of the trading range.

More of the same; Russell 2000 range bound as S&P and Nasdaq lead

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The weekend didn't deliver any change on Friday's position, the Russell 2000 couldn't follow the lead of the S&P and Nasdaq, instead posting yet another neutral doji. Buyer indecision for growth stocks remains a concern as the trading range remains no closer to been breached.

New Highs in Nasdaq and S&P Don't Help Russell 2000

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The indices which have done most of the leg work through 2021 were again grabbing the headlines on Friday, but the Russell 2000 was not an index joining in the fun.  Both the Nasdaq and S&P managed new closing highs, both of these indices having successfully defended breakout support in addition to Fiboacci retracements, but really - it's the Russell 2000 we need to see strength from. The Nasdaq managed a solid test of breakout support despite the MACD trigger 'sell', although On-Balance-Volume, ADX and Stochastics are bullish, the latter indicator has been firmly on the bull's side. 

Indices bounce off support on light volume

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Monday's confluence of support tests was going to bring a reaction and a reaction it did. Today marked the second day of buying, but volume for today was down on yesterday and indices will soon find themselves testing the resolve of buyers of the July high - will supply / sellers return? For the Nasdaq, today's buying was sufficient to regain its 20-day MA with new 'buy' triggers for On-Balance-Volume and ADX. 

Decision time for bulls

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Small Caps have reaches a support level which will determine how things will go for the rest of the year. In the case of the Russell 2000 ($IWM) we have to consider what will happen around $209 as sellers confirm distribution; a loss of this level will end the trading range and project a measured move down and through the 200-day MA. 

Sellers make a strong stand on Friday

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There was to be no reprieve for buyers on Friday. In the past, buyers have managed to step in to provide a bit of gloss on a bad week to give bulls some optimism for Monday, but there was no such reprieve today. But as I was saying about strong days in a trading range - the same applies for weak days too.  The Russell 2000 gave up over 1% in a move which undid Thursday's neutral doji, but with this occurring inside the trading range it's damage is not as significant.  The 200-day MA is fast approaching, so this might be the next test.

Sellers bring havoc to Russell 2000

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Last week's bounce from the swing low looks to be toast with today's distribution selling leaving the Russell 2000 just a few points above that swing low.   The net result from today was to leave technicals net bearish with the lows of March the next target.

Markets edge a little higher, but larger picture unchanged

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We are still seeing most of the leg work been done by Large Cap stocks while Small Caps remain caught within their base.  Trading volume was below Friday's selling, and only the Nasdaq had action of note as today's doji left it bang-on the bearish black candlestick of last week; any gain tomorrow will negate this bearish candlestick.

Large Caps do the work

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After Thursday's decline it was Friday's recovery which finished the week on a high note, although buying volume was down on Thursday's distribution.   The S&P did close on a new all-time high, but it remained below the trendline.  Technicals are net positive and remain in good shape.

Sellers start the day on the offensive, but buyers make a comeback

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It was a day when sellers made a break at the open, but weren't able to press the early advantage.  For the Nasdaq, the early gap down rallied back from above its 20-day MA - and well above its breakout level. Given yesterday's 'black' candlestick, the likelihood of a stall out on a retest of 14,755 is quite high. 

Russell 2000 Struggles Below The Radar

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On the surface, it looked to be a generally positive day with the Nasdaq gaining and the S&P recovering earlier losses - but the Russell 2000 ($IWM) pushed a clear cut of $228 and is now back inside the prior trading range.  The Russell 2000 did find support at its 50-day MA, but beyond a test of the March swing lows there isn't a whole lot of support available.  Adding to that, relative performance against the S&P took another step lower - only Stochastics is net positive. 

Buying Pressure Continues To Drive Indices Higher as Russell 2000 Waits...

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All the hard work is been done by Large Cap and Tech Indices as the Russell 2000 continues to trade below resistance.  Friday's volume was done on previous days and didn't really match the price action relative to those day's gains.  Despite this, the week finished on a positive. The S&P enjoyed another respectable advance, although the sequence of gains has come off the back of no down days for the last couple of weeks. Technicals are net positive and the index is outperforming Small Caps.

Indices Post Gains but Russell 2000 Still to Breakout

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There wasn't a whole lot to today's gains but indices did manage to recover intraday losses.   The Nasdaq is comfortably above its breakout support and today's intraday swing barely lost ground.  Technicals are net bullish with no bearish divergene to worry about.  The index is 11.7% above its 200-day MA, which is outside of the 85% of historic extremes. 

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